Canada and the world want Obama

Canada just elected a Conservative government with 143 seats. What is interesting is that when surveyed on the US Race, 67% of Canadians prefer Barack Obama to John McCain who polled at 22%. In the rest of the world, on average non-Americans prefer Obama 4-1 over his Republican opponent. Based on these results, it is clear that the world overwhelming prefers Barack Obama to John McCain. I suspect the past 8 years of George Bush have a lot to do with these numbers. Given that Obama is most likely going to take the WhiteHouse in 13 days, I think these numbers are positive. Obama has the tools to restore America's image in the world. Given that economic, security, climate change and issues such as Iran are going to require international cooperation; I think these numbers demonstrate that Obama has the leadership qualities to get something productive done on all these fronts. I look forward to his first trip to Canada as President. I suspect he will be greeted with a much different reception than George W. Bush has been given here in the past.
-Darryl

U.S. Neighbors Prefer Obama to McCain by 3-to-1 Margin

Canadians more likely to see election’s outcome as relevant to them

by Steve Crabtree

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- When Canadians and Mexicans were asked in recent Gallup Polls whom they would personally rather see elected president of the United States this November, Democratic candidate Barack Obama received about three times as many nods among both populations as Republican contender John McCain.

Two in three Canadians (67%) prefer Obama, while 22% favor McCain. As in the United States, widespread disapproval of the Bush administration is almost certainly hurting McCain in Canada. Just 22% of Canadians say they approve of the current U.S. leadership, while 71% say they do not.

In Mexico, the ratio of supporters between the two candidates is similar at 3-to-1 in favor of Obama; unlike Canadians however, most Mexicans -- 63% -- do not venture an opinion at all. This is in part a function of Mexicans' lower average socioeconomic status and education level; for example, 76% of Mexicans with elementary education or less say they don't have an opinion about the U.S. election, versus just 35% of those with a four-year degree who say the same.

However, Mexicans' lack of responsiveness may also stem from the fact that only 34% feel the U.S. election outcome will make a difference to their country, while 37% say it will not. Among Canadians, three-fourths say U.S. residents' choice of president will make a difference to Canada, while just 22% disagree.

NAFTA

One substantive disagreement between McCain and Obama has come on the issue of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Obama wants to renegotiate the agreement to include enforceable labor and environmental standards -- a position that McCain has criticized as harmful to the economic growth brought about by free trade in the region.

A slim majority of Canadians agree with McCain that NAFTA has benefited their country economically; 51% say its effect has been mainly positive, while 39% say it has been mainly negative.

However, another finding suggests most Canadians are not powerfully attached to NAFTA: When asked what they think their government should do if the United States does decide to negotiate a new trade agreement, 45% say the Canadian government should agree to start negotiations, while 34% say the government should try to keep NAFTA intact, and 13% favor having no trade agreement at all. What's more, a September poll for the Council of Canadians found that 61% of Canadians agreed with Obama's intention to renegotiate NAFTA.

With regard to Mexican public opinion, NAFTA may be a wash politically -- 21% of Mexicans say the agreement has had a positive effect on their economy, while 24% say it has been negative. A majority of Mexicans either say the effect has been neither positive nor negative (19%) or that they don't know (36%).

Immigration

Mexicans' relative inattention to the U.S. election may partly reflect the relative lack of discussion by either candidate on one issue of particular concern to Mexicans: immigration policy. Currently, almost one in five Mexicans (18%) say they have family members who have moved abroad in the past five years, and 81% of those family members moved to the United States. Remittances are a significant source of income for many; 78% of Mexicans say those who go to live abroad are "a big help" for their families.

There is little substantive difference between Obama and McCain on immigration, which helps explain their lack of focus on the issue. Both candidates support a legalization process for illegal immigrants living in the United States that includes paying fines and learning English. Both also support guest worker programs, and both voted in 2006 for the construction of a fence along 700 miles of the United States/Mexico border.

Survey Methods

Results from Canada are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted Aug. 7-Sept. 7, 2008. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results from Mexico are based on face-to-face interviews with 873 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted July 25-30, 2008. For results based on this total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The world picks Obama for president - 4 to 1

Gallup poll of 70 countries finds widespread international support for Democratic candidate, including 67 per cent in Canada

SIRI AGRELL

October 22, 2008

Americans may still be undecided, but the rest of the world has made up its mind about who should be elected president of the United States.

A Gallup poll of 70 countries conducted from May through September has found widespread international support for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

Around the world, respondents favoured Mr. Obama 4 to 1 over Republican John McCain.

In Canada, 67 per cent chose Mr. Obama and 22 per cent Mr. McCain. And 75 per cent of Canadian respondents said the presidential election would make a difference for their own country.

The Democratic nominee also enjoyed levels of support higher than 60 per cent in Australia, Germany, England and Japan, where the U.S. election was viewed as having a global impact.

Around the world, only Georgia, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines backed the Republican candidate.

Europeans were the most likely to state a preference in the election and to believe the winner would have an impact on their own countries.

Mr. Obama also received an overseas endorsement yesterday from the Conservative mayor of London, Boris Johnson.

"He visibly incarnates change and hope, at a time when America desperately needs both," Mr. Johnson wrote in the Daily Telegraph.

Within the United States, change seemed to be the theme of this week's polls.

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday found that the Democrat is enjoying his widest margin yet over Mr. McCain among registered voters, at 52 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Rasmussen Report, however, released a daily tracking poll that had Mr. Obama ahead by just four points, leading Mr. McCain 50 per cent to 46 per cent, and Gallup had Mr. Obama ahead 52 per cent to 41 per cent.

But attention is increasingly settling on key battleground states, where the two candidates are competing for the electoral votes they need to win the White House on Nov. 4.

Polls yesterday showed the Democrats leading in all of the battleground states won by John Kerry in 2004 and several won by Republican President George W. Bush.

A CNN poll yesterday had Mr. Obama leading in Colorado by a margin of 51 to 47 per cent. In Florida, he was ahead 49 to 45, within the poll's margin of error. The same poll found Mr. McCain leading in Indiana 51 per cent to 46 per cent, and in Georgia 53 per cent to 45 per cent.

It was reported this week that the McCain campaign had effectively given up on Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, states the party had once believed would lead them to victory.

But Jill Hazelbaker, Mr. McCain's national communications director, released a statement yesterday denying the report.

"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," she said. "We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

Who would you personally rather see elected president of the United States?

	Obama	McCain
Britain	60%	15%
Canada	67%	27%
Chile	43%	9%
France	64%	4%
Georgia	15%	23%
Germany	62%	10%
Japan	66%	15%
Kenya	89%	3%
Laos	24%	25%
Mexico	27%	9%
Philippines	20%	28%
Rwanda	57%	12%

Note: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

TONIA COWAN/THE GLOBE AND MAIL // SOURCE: GALLUP