Here is the single best way Canadians can support Barack Obama

If you are available to travel from Toronto to Ohio between Monday Nov 3 - Wednesday Nov 5, come help us Get Out The Vote (GOTV).

There are still a few spots available in cars driving down during those dates (one from Vaughn), and there are fantastic Out of State coordinators who will help you find housing if you need it.

Why is this so important?

John McCain has virtually no electoral path to victory without Ohio.

Due to the efforts of a fantastic group of volunteers in Ohio, 94% of Ohioans are registered to vote. We need to get Democrats to the polls.

In 2004, Bush won Ohio (and therefore, the White House) by only 10 votes per precinct. With your help we can get those 10 votes.

The volunteer team in Ohio (and all over the country) is tremendous. Anyone who comes down will be trained, and given all the information and help needed to go out there and get those votes.

If you can come (or if you are driving to Ohio from Toronto and have a few spots in your car), please contact Desiree Sy (until Fri Oct 31st).

Let's win this!

-Desiree Sy
e.lake8@gmail.com
cell (often off, takes messages): 647-403-8296
work: 416-874-8296

Canada now supports Obama 72%-12% over McCain

While these results come as no surprise, should Obama win as expected this Tuesday a lot will change in Canadian politics as well. For starters Jeffrey Simpson from the Globe and Mail points out what I have been saying for a long time. In his editorial, "What's a Canadian to do when there is no Bush to kick around anymore", Simpson points out that in future elections there will no longer be a George W. Bush for opposition parties to compare Harper to any more.

With Barack Obama polling at 72% here, and with previous polls showing he would win a majority regardless of what Canadian party he chose to lead; one has to wonder if anti-American aspects of the Canadian population will become out of touch with the views of mainstream Canadians. Stephen Harper has demonstrated that he is pro-American as oppose to pro-Bush in my opinion. Close relations with Obama could help him in the next election. He will be free to work productively with our US friends and ally without the media and opposition accusing him of being "too close to Bush".

For sure an Obama presidency will change policies in Washington with regard to Afghanistan, Iraq, the economy, climate change and America's role in the world. Gone will be hundreds of thousands of protesters that use to greet George W. Bush here and in Europe. The crowds Obama drew in Germany for example could be a sign of things to come starting in January 2009. This past weekend, I had the pleasure of staying at Deerhurst in Muskoka for a Rotary district conference. The G8 will be coming there in 2010. I wonder if 100,000 Canadians will make the trip up to Huntsville to cheer on Obama as oppose to protests we have seen in the past? Obama has the ability to restore America's image and role in the world. He can regain their moral authority. He can repair declining relations with allies and enemies alike. Obama winning on Tuesday will be good for Canadian relations with the United States, Stephen Harper and in my opinion the United States of America.

Of course one cannot get too caught up in the hype and desire for change. Obama will face a lot of challenges right away as president and there will be no honeymoon period. Is it possible to live up to the expectations? Is the world and American public guarenteed to be let down? Will Obama resort to protectionism or attempt to renegotiate NAFTA? Will the US economy make the next president unpopular regardless of who wins? Will he be tested by a foreign power or act of terrorism?

According to the Globe and Mail, Canadians prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 72%-12%. Polls and electoral college vote projections in the United States indicate Canada's preference will likely win. Obama will make history and change will come to the United States government after 8 years of Republican rule. The question now is, are Canadians ready for change as well?
-Darryl

OTTAWA — Canadians are excited about the prospect of a Barack Obama presidency, and want Prime Minister Stephen Harper to work more closely with a new U.S. administration on issues from protecting the environment to dealing with the economic crisis, a new poll suggests.

With only eight days until the U.S. election, Canadians overwhelmingly support Mr. Obama over Republican nominee John McCain, and believe the Illinois senator would do a better job of restoring America's credibility in the world and dealing with the global economic crisis.

But regardless of the winner, there remains significant skepticism in Canada over whether the U.S. can be trusted to deal fairly with Canadian concerns, said the survey, which was conducted for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute. The Calgary-based institute holds its annual conference in Ottawa today, with its focus on Canada-U.S. relations.

And there are concerns that Mr. Obama – together with a Democratic-controlled Congress – could impose protectionist measures that would hurt Canada.

“It's pretty clear that we have a healthy skepticism of the Americans, even with Obama, although there are a lot of hopes with him as president,” said Greg Lyle, managing director for Innovative Research Group, which conducted the online survey for the institute.

Canadians expect their government to work closely with the U.S. on international problems, and do not believe Mr. Harper has been particularly effective in dealing with the administration of George W. Bush.

In the survey, 58 per cent said Mr. Harper has not been effective in advancing Canada's interests with the Bush administration. [The online poll of more than 2,000 people was conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 21, and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.]

With the expectation that Mr. Obama will be the next president, 70 per cent of respondents said Canada should work more closely with the U.S. to protect the environment; 60 per cent said the two governments should work more closely in dealing with the economic crisis, and 59 per cent said there should be greater co-operation to reduce drug trafficking.

Colin Robertson, senior fellow with the institute, said he was struck by the pragmatism of Canadians who remain suspicious of the U.S., but recognize the need for close collaboration.

“Arguably, Canadian are the original unAmericans – our origins go back to that,” said Mr. Robertson, who heads the Canada-U.S. project at Carleton University. “But there is nonetheless a realism that says we expect our leaders to work together on problems.”

In fact, 62 per cent of respondents indicated a willingness to adopt American regulatory standards if it would ease restrictions at the border.

On the other hand, Canadians want to see their government move more aggressively to assert sovereignty in the North, despite U.S. opposition. Some 57 per cent say it is unlikely the U.S. will recognize Canada's claims in the North, and 44 per cent want the federal government to unilaterally declare a 200-mile economic zone to cover the Northwest Passage.

Like people around the globe, Canadians are enamoured with Mr. Obama, who outpolls Mr. McCain here by 72 to 12. (In the U.S., Mr. Obama has a commanding eight-point lead over Mr. McCain in an average of national polls assembled by RealClearPolitics website.)

The greatest fear regarding the Democratic candidate is that he would be too protectionist, with 57 per cent saying they worry he would end or renegotiate the North American free-trade agreement, or that he would be too protectionist.

Canada and the world want Obama

Canada just elected a Conservative government with 143 seats. What is interesting is that when surveyed on the US Race, 67% of Canadians prefer Barack Obama to John McCain who polled at 22%. In the rest of the world, on average non-Americans prefer Obama 4-1 over his Republican opponent. Based on these results, it is clear that the world overwhelming prefers Barack Obama to John McCain. I suspect the past 8 years of George Bush have a lot to do with these numbers. Given that Obama is most likely going to take the WhiteHouse in 13 days, I think these numbers are positive. Obama has the tools to restore America's image in the world. Given that economic, security, climate change and issues such as Iran are going to require international cooperation; I think these numbers demonstrate that Obama has the leadership qualities to get something productive done on all these fronts. I look forward to his first trip to Canada as President. I suspect he will be greeted with a much different reception than George W. Bush has been given here in the past.
-Darryl

U.S. Neighbors Prefer Obama to McCain by 3-to-1 Margin

Canadians more likely to see election’s outcome as relevant to them

by Steve Crabtree

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- When Canadians and Mexicans were asked in recent Gallup Polls whom they would personally rather see elected president of the United States this November, Democratic candidate Barack Obama received about three times as many nods among both populations as Republican contender John McCain.

Two in three Canadians (67%) prefer Obama, while 22% favor McCain. As in the United States, widespread disapproval of the Bush administration is almost certainly hurting McCain in Canada. Just 22% of Canadians say they approve of the current U.S. leadership, while 71% say they do not.

In Mexico, the ratio of supporters between the two candidates is similar at 3-to-1 in favor of Obama; unlike Canadians however, most Mexicans -- 63% -- do not venture an opinion at all. This is in part a function of Mexicans' lower average socioeconomic status and education level; for example, 76% of Mexicans with elementary education or less say they don't have an opinion about the U.S. election, versus just 35% of those with a four-year degree who say the same.

However, Mexicans' lack of responsiveness may also stem from the fact that only 34% feel the U.S. election outcome will make a difference to their country, while 37% say it will not. Among Canadians, three-fourths say U.S. residents' choice of president will make a difference to Canada, while just 22% disagree.

NAFTA

One substantive disagreement between McCain and Obama has come on the issue of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Obama wants to renegotiate the agreement to include enforceable labor and environmental standards -- a position that McCain has criticized as harmful to the economic growth brought about by free trade in the region.

A slim majority of Canadians agree with McCain that NAFTA has benefited their country economically; 51% say its effect has been mainly positive, while 39% say it has been mainly negative.

However, another finding suggests most Canadians are not powerfully attached to NAFTA: When asked what they think their government should do if the United States does decide to negotiate a new trade agreement, 45% say the Canadian government should agree to start negotiations, while 34% say the government should try to keep NAFTA intact, and 13% favor having no trade agreement at all. What's more, a September poll for the Council of Canadians found that 61% of Canadians agreed with Obama's intention to renegotiate NAFTA.

With regard to Mexican public opinion, NAFTA may be a wash politically -- 21% of Mexicans say the agreement has had a positive effect on their economy, while 24% say it has been negative. A majority of Mexicans either say the effect has been neither positive nor negative (19%) or that they don't know (36%).

Immigration

Mexicans' relative inattention to the U.S. election may partly reflect the relative lack of discussion by either candidate on one issue of particular concern to Mexicans: immigration policy. Currently, almost one in five Mexicans (18%) say they have family members who have moved abroad in the past five years, and 81% of those family members moved to the United States. Remittances are a significant source of income for many; 78% of Mexicans say those who go to live abroad are "a big help" for their families.

There is little substantive difference between Obama and McCain on immigration, which helps explain their lack of focus on the issue. Both candidates support a legalization process for illegal immigrants living in the United States that includes paying fines and learning English. Both also support guest worker programs, and both voted in 2006 for the construction of a fence along 700 miles of the United States/Mexico border.

Survey Methods

Results from Canada are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted Aug. 7-Sept. 7, 2008. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results from Mexico are based on face-to-face interviews with 873 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted July 25-30, 2008. For results based on this total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The world picks Obama for president - 4 to 1

Gallup poll of 70 countries finds widespread international support for Democratic candidate, including 67 per cent in Canada

SIRI AGRELL

October 22, 2008

Americans may still be undecided, but the rest of the world has made up its mind about who should be elected president of the United States.

A Gallup poll of 70 countries conducted from May through September has found widespread international support for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

Around the world, respondents favoured Mr. Obama 4 to 1 over Republican John McCain.

In Canada, 67 per cent chose Mr. Obama and 22 per cent Mr. McCain. And 75 per cent of Canadian respondents said the presidential election would make a difference for their own country.

The Democratic nominee also enjoyed levels of support higher than 60 per cent in Australia, Germany, England and Japan, where the U.S. election was viewed as having a global impact.

Around the world, only Georgia, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines backed the Republican candidate.

Europeans were the most likely to state a preference in the election and to believe the winner would have an impact on their own countries.

Mr. Obama also received an overseas endorsement yesterday from the Conservative mayor of London, Boris Johnson.

"He visibly incarnates change and hope, at a time when America desperately needs both," Mr. Johnson wrote in the Daily Telegraph.

Within the United States, change seemed to be the theme of this week's polls.

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday found that the Democrat is enjoying his widest margin yet over Mr. McCain among registered voters, at 52 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Rasmussen Report, however, released a daily tracking poll that had Mr. Obama ahead by just four points, leading Mr. McCain 50 per cent to 46 per cent, and Gallup had Mr. Obama ahead 52 per cent to 41 per cent.

But attention is increasingly settling on key battleground states, where the two candidates are competing for the electoral votes they need to win the White House on Nov. 4.

Polls yesterday showed the Democrats leading in all of the battleground states won by John Kerry in 2004 and several won by Republican President George W. Bush.

A CNN poll yesterday had Mr. Obama leading in Colorado by a margin of 51 to 47 per cent. In Florida, he was ahead 49 to 45, within the poll's margin of error. The same poll found Mr. McCain leading in Indiana 51 per cent to 46 per cent, and in Georgia 53 per cent to 45 per cent.

It was reported this week that the McCain campaign had effectively given up on Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, states the party had once believed would lead them to victory.

But Jill Hazelbaker, Mr. McCain's national communications director, released a statement yesterday denying the report.

"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," she said. "We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

Who would you personally rather see elected president of the United States?

Note: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

TONIA COWAN/THE GLOBE AND MAIL // SOURCE: GALLUP