TORONTO — The suburban Toronto voters who swept Conservatives to power in Ontario in 1995 and sent them packing in 2003 are poised to play a familiar, influential role on federal election day next week.
In the fast-growing 905 region wrapped around the still-Liberal stronghold of Toronto, escalating voter worries about the economy and who can best manage the turbulence fuel federal Conservative hopes of electoral gains on Oct. 14.
"This could be a breakthrough election for us," said John Capobianco, a federal Tory adviser watching several tight races across the Toronto region. "905 seems to be a very positive part [of Ontario] for us."
If he is correct - and Liberal insiders concede almost certain defeat in several ridings with a half-dozen others too close to call - it will be because of voters like Newmarket resident Susan Gray.
Unaligned politically, the mother of two who runs a small business from her home says the economy is "top of mind" for her.
"This is a pretty scary time we are going into, particularly with what is happening in the United States," said Ms. Gray, still weighing her choices in Newmarket-Aurora, a sprawling suburban riding northeast of Toronto. "We need a strong leader and I don't see [Liberal Leader] Stéphane Dion as that leader for us."
In 2006, Ms. Gray backed Liberal MP Belinda Stronach, who edged her Tory opponent Lois Brown (running again for her party) by almost 5,000 votes. Ms. Stronach, who is not seeking re-election, was first elected as a Conservative in 2004 by a margin of barely 700 votes, having defeated Ms. Brown for the party nomination.
Even without the high-profile Ms. Stronach, the Liberals feel confident their candidate, former Aurora mayor Tim Jones, can edge out Ms. Brown.
But he cannot count for sure on former Stronach Liberal voters like Ms. Gray on election day.
"I was not a big fan of [Conservative Leader] Stephen Harper's when he came in but I think he has been doing a good job," she said.
The potential loss of women voters is of concern to Liberal strategists.
"We need to hold our female vote," said Judi Longfield, campaign director for Ontario. "It's very important because traditionally they have been with us."
Of 21 suburban ridings on the doorstep of Toronto, the Liberals held 17 seats at the start of the election campaign and the Conservatives the other four. That tally includes two ridings where incumbents crossed the floor in the last Parliament - former Conservative Garth Turner aims to hold on to his seat in Halton for the Liberals, while former Liberal Wajid Khan hopes to do the same for the Tories in Mississauga-Streetsville.
"We have seen a real migration of Liberal votes to the Conservatives," possibly enough to defeat Liberal incumbents in several ridings, including Halton, said pollster Peter Donolo of The Strategic Counsel.
Strategic Counsel's daily polling in the most contested 905 ridings shows Conservative candidates running four percentage points ahead of where they were in the 2006 election, while Liberal candidates are running 10 percentage points behind. The Conservatives are at 43 per cent; the Liberals at 30 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent and the Greens at 7 per cent.
Because the polling samples are small, the margins of error are large: 6.6 per cent. But there have been clear trend lines since the campaign began showing the Conservative share of the vote slowly increasing while the Liberal share slowly declines - except for a small Conservative dip in the last few days.
Political analysts have never doubted the Conservatives would do well in 905, whose residents match to a T the party's target voters: either well-off with lots of children or on the edge of economically struggling with lots of children. The question is whether the Tories can do well enough in 905 and the neighbouring 519 area-code region to compensate for loss of support in Quebec.
With a report from Michael Valpy
