Newmarket-Aurora Campaign Update: 10 days to go
As we work on the final weekend of campaigning, things are looking great in Newmarket-Aurora and for the Conservative Party nationally. The residents here now have a clear choice. A voice in government with a strong Conservative representative in Lois Brown. Otherwise we can vote Tim Jones who will be a voice in the next Liberal leadership race and risk this riding being shut out of a majority government. Frankly the Greens, NDP, CHP and Dorian Baxter have no chance of winning this race. Belinda Stronach is no longer on the ballot, and without her star power it is hard to see how the Liberals can hold this riding given the status of their brand and leader Mr. Dion.
This week we saw the French and English language debates. Duceppe was said to have won the French language debates with Dion showing well. Layton won the English debates with Harper showing strong and Dion finishing poorly in relation to his competition. Elizabeth May also did well meaning the left wing vote is fractured among the Greens, NDP and Liberals. Conservative support is holding steady with a stronger minority basically guaranteed. The push is now being made by Harper to win that majority by targeting potential winning ridings while Dion is fighting to maintain what he already holds. Time for major gaffes is running out and the old George Bush, abortion, Mike Harris and hidden agenda attack ads simply are not working. The Liberal platform has gone over like a lead balloon and Dion is too weak a leader to rally the progressive vote behind him strategically. There is also limited motivation to stop a Conservative majority after two and a half good years of government.
The final week is all about closing the deal. Pundits agree that Harper will remain Prime Minister with either a weak majority or strong minority. I suspect it will be a majority plus or minus ten seats. The media has now shifted its focus to the race for second place between the NDP and the Liberals. The real battles are now taking place in each of the local ridings such as mine.
In Newmarket-Aurora we are in a tight race, likely with a slight edge. Internal polls and prediction websites are showing a Conservative victory but getting out the vote and working hard until the 14th is what will make the difference here. Lois is one of the hardest working candidates in the country and she is motivated to fight for votes right up until the very last second before polls close.
In terms of signs, there is still a large lead for Lois Brown on residential properties. Conservative large signs are also present at virtually all intersections and high traffic areas. Tim Jones has his signs up as well, and now the NDP has finally gotten into the sign game. Mike Seaward has signs at major intersections that say Jack Layton. Dorian Baxter also has new signs that do not say Progressive Conservative. Glenn Hubbers seems to be in third place in this riding with the sign war. The Christian Heritage Party also has a few signs here and there. Sign advantage would be Conservative though.
At the doors, the response has been strong. I predict a low turnout as there does seem to be a lot of vote apathy. Of those that are engaged, Stephen Harper is the preferred choice in leader. Top issues I have seen at the doors include the economy, carbon tax/Stephane Dion, Afghanistan, Health care and the environment. Public transit/gridlock, justice and the sponsorship scandal also come up from time to time. The odd person is supporting the NDP or Greens, but in Newmarket-Aurora this is a head to head race between Conservative Lois Brown and Liberal Tim Jones. Our support seems to be growing and sign requests continue to flow in.
The media has been fair to us as well. Local media with the exception of Rogers has not covered much of this campaign. At best there is one article or letter to the editor in each edition of the papers here. Rogers is televising debates in all of York Region's ridings. Candidates in Newmarket-Aurora will film their debate on October 7. The debates next week will likely be the final chance to make an impression in the Era Banner an dAuroran before voters make their decision. We will see 4 more Era Banners and 2 more Auoran issues before voting day. The Rogers debate will be on demand and I believe in the Focal Point timeslot Tuesday and Wednesday at 8pm. National media has been friendly with coverage in the Hill Times, CTV/Globe and Mail, The Star, National Post and Toronto Sun. The CBC National segment I have filmed will air either on October 10 or on Thanksgiving Monday. Global Television was also here and CPAC as well.
All of our 3 brochures have now been created and mailed out. We had a strong fundraiser in the early part of the campaign but could always use more money. Lois is knocking on doors every night. Volunteers are looking to ID the vote through the phones, acting as poll captains and with the support of national party who are targeting this riding. We have identified a lot of supporters through our CIMs data base system and are optomistic about the 14th. Our website hits are growing, our email marketing is encouraging supporters to go to the advance polls where we are seeing high turnout, and Lois has been blogging at www.askloisbrown.ca. CBC riding talk for Newmarket-Aurora has been very active with the majority of people posting supporting the Conservatives. Lois Brown's Facebook group is still larger than Tim Jones. Electionprediction.org still has this one called for the Conservatives. Democraticspace.com is still calling it too close to call. Newmarket-Aurora is one of those ridings that will make a difference between a Stephen Harper majority or minority for the Conservatives.
Friday was the first debate at Cardinal Carter school. Nothing unexpected really took place there and I personally wasn't there to say objectively who won. This upcoming week will be crucial with a debate in Aurora on October 6, a Rogers and Sacred Heart High School debate on October 7 and the Newmarket debate on October 8. Lois has done well in debate preperation and I think she will win all three debates. I expect the usual attacks from the opposition again this time.
Harper will be in the GTA on October 10 for a massive rally. We are hoping he makes a stop in this riding. Keep your fingers crossed as I think it will guarantee a win for Lois Brown here. He had planned to come last weekend but we were not able to secure a venue large enough due to weddings that were booked at various banquet facilities.
With 10 days to go (and actually 7 when you factor E-day, Thanksgiving Monday and Thanksgiving Sunday) the remainder of our efforts will be identifying our support in the riding and getting out our vote on election day. Poll captains will finish their work and the E-day strategy will be formulated. Scruiteneers will then be assigned to each poll. Finally supporters will gather at Madsens to catch the results across the country and in this riding. The majority of our campaigning will stop on the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend, as no one wants to be bothered during the holiday. The verdict will come on Tuesday October 14 after families hopefully have a chance to discuss politics over turkey dinner.
I am very confident Lois Brown is going to win the riding. If CNN was covering this race, it would already be safe to project Stephen Harper as the Prime Minister. I am going to go out on a limb and predict Liberals finish third to the NDP as many of their supporters will not bother to vote for Stephane Dion costing them key swing ridings.
The key at this point is to not let up and skate hard right up until the final horn of the third period. The lead is now 5-1 with 7 minutes left. We cannot afford to make any mistakes and we must play a strong defence. Victory is within reach and the Stanley Cup majority is ours for the taking. It is up to the volunteers in this riding to make sure Lois Brown goes to Ottawa with a hard final push in the twighlight of this campaign. It is up to Conservative volunteers across the country to make sure we elect a Conservative majority. After the next 10 days, hopefully we will have 4 years to relax without another federal election.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
