What is at stake for each party and their leader Tuesday
Today electionprediction.org made their predictions on all 308 ridings and the outcome looks like this:
Conservative 125
Liberal 94
NDP 36
BQ 51
Independent 2 (Arthur, Casey)
Green 0
Democratic Space has not made their final predictions, but right now their numbers are showing:
Conservative 128
Liberal 92
NDP 34
BQ 52
Independent 2
Green 0
Finally voteforenvironment.ca is currently predicting the following:
Conservative 131
Liberal 85
NDP 38
BQ 52
Independent 2
Green 0
Average out all three of those numbers and even be optimistic and add +/- ten seats to the Conservative total and it is clear that we are likely headed into minority government with Stephen Harper remaining Prime Minister. A majority is possible if there is a Thanksgiving shift but that seems unlikely. Equally unlikely would be a Dion minority because it would require a dramatic voting shift from the Conservatives and other parties on the left. The Conservatives currently hold 127 seats in the House of Commons. It looks like the results of the 2008 election are more or less going to keep things the same. Taking these numbers as fact for argument sake, what would these results mean for all the national parties and their leaders October 15?
Conservative Party and Stephen Harper:
Prime Minister Stephen Harper called this election and early in the campaign it seemed like a majority was possible and likely. When the election was called, economic concerns primarily had to do with a high Canadian dollar, high gasoline prices and job losses in the manufacturing sector. By mid campaign, the price of oil dropped as did the Canadian dollar. South of the border, a credit crunch, banking and housing crisis and massive government deficits led to an economic crisis in the US. Stocks around the world plunged. In a globalized economy banks in Europe and to a lesser degree Canada found themselves caught up in these sub prime mortgages through other investments. Banks in all of the major G7 nations were forced to take action. In America we saw mergers, a 700 billion dollar bail out plan and interest rate cuts. England nationalized some of their major banks. Iceland found themselves in trouble and took out a loan from Russia. The overall impact of these issues have not just hurt the Western world, oil prices falling means less revenue for the OPEC producing nations, Russia and Canada. Americans trying to pay off debt and reducing their spending means nations such as China and India have less of a market to sell their manufactured goods to. The overall slow down means that issues such as the environment and poverty could be pushed aside while world leaders focus on the economy. Many saw this disaster coming but few expected it to hit this soon. The crisis has derailed Senator John McCain's campaign South of the border and Prime Minister Stephen Harper found himself in the storm as the incumbent in Canada. Most of these challenges are the result of global forces and not any specific action on the part of the government of Canada. Our banking system and economy got strong reviews by organizations such as the IMF for being best prepared to handle this potential worldwide recession. The next couple of years could be challenging and if Stephen Harper remains Prime Minister, many tough decisions will have to be made. He will have a renewed mandate and likely another two years to govern, but will likely have to find a coalition partner (abstaining Liberals) to get anything passed. Otherwise it will be a constant game of chicken on confidence votes meaning the House will be very partisan and the next campaign will stop the parties from working together constructively to get anything done. Fortunately for Stephen Harper; the Liberals will likely face a leadership race; the Greens will not have a seat; the NDP spent the maximum on this campaign and will be broke and in no position to fight another one in the near future; and the BQ is poised to make gains and will not be willing to risk them by going to the polls early. The turnout and outcome will also likely be a clear signal that the public would have no appatite for another election any time soon.
Stephen Harper has said he will step down if the party is defeated. Any scenerio where he is the Prime Minister will mean that he is staying on as leader of the Conservative Party. While Conservatives have every reason to celebrate victory on Tuesday night, afterward the party may want to reflect on what is stopping a majority government if it is infact a minority. A policy convention is set for November and the Conservatives made modest and responsible promises during the campaign that will be possible to keep. The global economic crisis will give Harper an opportunity to show leadership on the world stage. The likely election of Barack Obama should make George Bush a thing of the past in Canadian election campaigns. The mission in Afghanistan will be set to end in 2011. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have signalled a new approach to the environment meaning that in the future an agreement can take place that will include China, India and the United States. Stephen Harper did make a committment to visit China and more exposure on the world stage will only improve Stephen Harper's image. A free trade deal with the EU is possible and it is quite possible that we will need a strong leader to defend NAFTA and the Arctic over the next few years. While there will be several opportunities, there are also threats on the horizon as well. Any kind of recession or worse will hurt the government in power. Opposition parties will look at polls and technically could pull the trigger at any time. A coalition on the left is not out of the question. A new Liberal leader will likely put up more of a challenge than Stephane Dion.
If Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets the opportunity to select a new cabinet, it will be interesting to see who ends up in it. Will there be representation in the North? Newfoundland? PEI? Toronto? Montreal? Vancouver? Is there potential for new Conservative stars should someone like Lisa Raitt get elected in Halton or Peter Kent in Thornhill? Will there be any cabinet casualties in this election? Will Maxime Bernier get another chance? Any surprise senators or floor crossers?
This election is probably going to bring results similar to what Conservative had after the 2006 election. 2004 brought about gains as the right was finally elected. 2006 gave the Conservatives a taste of minority power. 2008 will likely give Harper a chance to demonstrate leadership as we will see a new President in Washington and a new set of challenges on the global agenda. Unless a majority looks guaranteed, it is unlikely Conservatives will be in any rush to get to the polls. What will Harper do different this time to ensure that majority next time?
Liberal Party - Stephane Dion
Stephane Dion has said he will try and stay on as leader even if his party loses, but I do not see how that would be possible. While most leaders are given two chances, Dion was a major liability for Liberals in this election. He was clearly not ready for the job and was really a compromise candidate at the Montreal convention. A loss will mean the knives will come out. Chretien and Martin people are still not united. Leadership contenders are already emerging. "Canada's national governing party" will be looking for a quick fix. Ultimately, unless Dion pulls off a surprise upset victory on Tuesday; I expect he will be quickly replaced.
Potential contenders:
Michael Ignatieff - Runner up last time. Harvard human rights professor. current deputy leader
Bob Rae - Former NDP Ontario Premier. Finished third in the last race. Foreign affairs critic.
Dalton McGuinty - Current Premier of Ontario. Distanced himself from carbon tax. Outsider but his brother already holds the federal seat.
Gerard Kennedy - Young and left leaning, but will he have a seat on Wednesday?
Justin Trudeau - Young and has the Trudeau last name. Will Liberals go for star power?
Ruby Dhalla - Strong in opposition, could be a strong female contender
Martha Hall Findlay - Will we see the return of the red bus?
Ralph Goodale - Last man standing in the West?
Marc Garneau - A career in the military and in space. Could he make gains in Quebec?
Frank McKenna - Perhaps a strong choice with the current economic crisis being front and center?
John Manley - Does the Liberal party need to move back to the center?
Scott Brison - If there is a leadership race, Brison is there.
Ken Dryden - Another star?
Dennis Coderre - Could he improve Liberal fortunes in Quebec?
Ujjal Dosanjh - From BC and could appeal to the West where Liberals will need to rebuild
For Liberals, no leader will be the magic bullet. Issues with raising cash, the loss of rural Canada, the situation in Alberta, Quebec and the Praries will have to be addressed. Declines will be likely in BC, Northern Canada and the 905 region around Toronto. Half of the Liberal caucus will come from Toronto with most of the remainder being from Montreal. Financially, many of the previous leadership contenders remain in debt. The party borrowed money to spend the maximum during this campaign. They will borrow again if there is another leadership race. The election return will be reduced if they secure less votes than last time. Liberals have still not recovered and adapted to election financing changes. The combination of all of these factors will lead to paralysis and likely a coalition partner for the Conservatives during the next session.
If Dion does in fact lose this race, Liberals need a new leader and time to adapt to the new realities of the Canadian political landscape. They need to improve their oganization. They need to rebuild in various regions of the country. They need a platform that moves the party back to the center and back into the mainstream with regular Canadians. Exploring a coalition on the left might also have to be talked about.
New Democratic Party - Jack Layton
This was Jack's big moment. At parliament's disolution, the NDP had 30 seats. If you look at all the numbers above, they will gain; but not in a huge way. It seems unlikely they will beat Ed Broadbent's total. It seems even less likely they will form the official opposition, let alone government. For the first time they spent the maximum and will now be in debt. They ran a lot of ads. They had the sponsorship scandal last time and 43 times that Dion abstained this time yet were unable to really take advantage and bury the Liberals. Reviews of the NDP campaign and Jack Layton's leadership and debate performance was strong. At the end of the day though, the NDP doesn't find itself much further ahead and as a result need to evaluate what they offer to the Canadian people.
Do they keep Jack Layton? He is more popular than the party but hasn't really taken them where they want to go. Thomas Mulcair, Buzz Hargrove and David Miller might be possible successors. The NDP will also be in no position to call another election due to their debt. This will make them think twice about playing chicken with the Liberals on confidence votes.
The NDP are unlikely to see major breakthroughs in Quebec. They might see gains elsewhere and a strong campaign might be enough to keep Jack Layton as leader for one more chance. Still after 60 years, the NDP has not demonstrated that they can form opposition or government, and may have to accept that a minority coalition is their only chance at power.
Green Party and Elizabeth May
This will be the most intersting party to watch after the election. They were in the debates, received mainstream media attention and they will likely earn 10% of the popular vote. May has gotten strong reviews for her leadership by some and many would argue the Greens were a true force in this election. Problem is, May will likely lose in Central Nova and the prospects for any seat pick ups elsewhere are not good. Blair Wilson will be defeated, meaning the Greens will have no MPs in the house and might have to fight for their right to be in the next debates all over again.
What is next for the Greens? Elizabeth May is sure to take heat for her strategic voting comments. At the same time, she took Greens to an all time high in this election. Next time around do not expect any kind of deals with the Liberals or anyone else. May might also be wise to find a riding where she has a chance to win.
The Greens will be the big winners on Tuesday night but could find themselves fading away on Wednesday due to their lack of representation in the House. The next major fight for them has to be proportional representation.
Bloc Quebecois and Gilles Duceppe
The BQ is on pace for 50 seats and will likely continue to block the prospects of a majority for either the Liberals or Conservatives for as long as they remain strong. Gilles Duceppe wants to be leader of the PQ, but must wait until after the next Quebec provincial election. The BQ will play a role in a minority parliament. Politically though, it will be tough for either the Liberals or the Conservatives to work with them. Frankly they caught a break in Quebec with the culture community's opposition to Harper. If this election puts them in a position of strength, it is unlikely they will want to go to the polls. This might make them a candidate for a coalition partner in the next parliament.
Harper's hopes for a majority come with the fall of the Bloc. The Bloc will not want to go to an election while they are weak and defending their role in Canada's parliament. Therefore it could be the BQ that brings stability to the next parliament.
The future of the Bloc will be determined by the next provincial race. Quebec is in a minority government and if the PQ is looking for a leader, Duceppe might get in the race for real this time. That would allow a successor for the federal wing of the movement; and possibly a new direction for the BQ under these Canadian political realities.
Prediction for the life of the next minority government:
One year and a few months. I think the first budget will pass with the government falling on the second budget in February 2010. That will leave enough time for any leadership races but not much time to get anything done in the next parliament.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
