Modeling Journey

Top 10 Factors that will determine the election on Tuesday

Tonight I had thanksgiving dinner with my family and it was terrific. Politics came up at the dinner table as I am sure it will tomorrow and across the country in many people's homes. As we look at the polls on balance; Conservatives have ranged from 31-42. Liberals from 30-20. NDP from 15-25. Greens 8-12 and the Bloc consistently strong in Quebec. Some of the vote is volatile. I suspect a portion of the Conservative vote around the center makes up part of the undecided swing voters. The remainder of volatile votes seem to be between the left wing parties. The reality is a lot of stock is put into the national polls, but to be honest they have little impact on the overall results without factoring in the local ridings and geographic considerations of Canada. Our riding of Newmarket-Aurora will likely be an indicator of what is happening nationally in the general election.

Top 10 Factors that will determine the election outcome on Tuesday:

1. Ontario GTA and Nothern Ontario

The battleground of Ontario is going to decide who wins this election and a lot of it is split between the Conservatives, Liberals and some pockets of NDP support. In Toronto proper and Southern York Region, every riding is likely to go Liberal. Outside of Toronto however, the Liberals are in decline. In Toronto, I suspect Jack Layton, Olivia Chow and Peggy Nash will all hold their seats meaning Gerard Kennedy will be defeated. On a good day for the NDP, a couple more seats in Toronto's core might swing their way. In Windsor we will likely see NDP candidates hold their seats. Northern Ontario also looks strong for the NDP with some opportunities for a Conservative seat here and there due to vote splitting. The NDP will pick up seats such as Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing and ridings in Thunder Bay. Ottawa will be interesting as the Eastern part of the province is generally Conservative, but the city itself may send a Liberal, NDP and some Conservatives to parliament. Most of the rural ridings, Muskoka, Simcoe, Durham, Dufferin-Caledon, Brant and others will all be strong Conservative. Look for almost all Conservative incumbents hold on to their seats in Oshawa, St. Catherines, Burlington Peterborugh and elsewhere. The 905 and 519 is where the Conservatives have the best chances to pick up seats. Overall there is about 30 competitive seats in the province right now.

Ridings to watch in Ontario:

Halton
All eyes will be on this one until the results come in. Conservatives badly want to send Garth Turner packing, but will his digital democracy and maverick status help him in the riding? Conservative candidate and Toronto Port Authority CEO Lisa Raitt is giving him a good run for his money. Many pundits are predicting she will take the seat. A crucial seat for the Conservatives in the GTA.

Newmarket-Aurora
Belinda Stronach is leaving politics and this one is wide open. Lois Brown has a strong chance of beating Liberal Tim Jones and returning this seat back to the blue column. In the GTA, York Region and the crucial 905 area code. This will be a bellwether of the night elsewhere.

Oakville
Terence Young is putting up a strong Conservative challenge to Liberal Bonnie Brown. This riding, like Newmarket-Aurora is crucial to Conservative gains in the 905 area code.

Don Valley West
If the Conservatives win a seat in Toronto it will be in Don Valley West. John Tory lost in the provincial election here. John Carmichael is carrying the federal banner in a riding where Laureen Harper has visited and knocked on doors.

Oshawa
Currently held by Conservative Colin Carrie. A key riding that has been highly impacted by current economic conditions, especially in the auto sector.

Brampton West
Conservative Kyle Seeback might take this seat from Liberal Andrew Kania. The race is close and it is the former provincial riding of Health Minister Tony Clement

Thornhill
Peter Kent is a star candidate for the Conservatives but will it be enough to unseat Susan Kadis in this York Region 905 GTA riding?

Guelph
A by-election riding that could be a tight four way race between Conservative Gloria Kovach, Liberal Frank Valeriote, Green Mike Nagy and NDP Tom King. If the Green Party wins a seat in parliament, it will most likely be here. Kovach may come up the middle depending on how this vote splits.

Mississauga-Streetsville
Wajid Khan crossed the floor from the Liberals and joined the Conservatives. Will his constituents forgive him? Unlike David Emerson and Joe Comuzzi, Khan is facing re-election.

Mississauga-South
Harper has paid a lot of attention to this riding in particular. Hugh Arrison is expected to defeat Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo

Kitchener Centre
Liberal whip Karen Redman is trying to hang on against Conservative Stephen Woodworth.

Welland
Liberal John Maloney finds himself in a tough three way battle in this Southern Ontario riding. Any of the three parties could take it.

London West
Conservative Ed Holder has a good chance of taking this London seat from Liberal Sue Barnes. This is a crucial 519 riding to take.

Kenora
A tight three way race in Ontario's North. Conservative Greg Rickford has a good chance of knocking off Liberal Roger Valley. NDP also in this tight three way fight.

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Will NDP Carol Hughes defeat Liberal Brent St. Denis in the riding that includes my birth town of Kapuskasing in Northern Ontario?

Thunder Bay-Superior North
Joe Comuzzi crossed the floor from the Liberals and joined the Conservatives. Now that Comuzzi has retired, who is going to win this close three way race?

Thunder Bay-Rainy River
A close three way race in Northern Ontario. Last time less than 3000 votes separated the Conservative, NDP and Liberal seat. Currently the seat is held by Liberal Ken Boshcoff.

Trinity Spadina
Always a close race...is Olivia Chow's seat safe?

Parkdale High Park
Will Gerard Kennedy go down to Peggy Nash the NDP incumbent?

Beaches-East York
Can Marilyn Churley defeat Maria Minna and pull off a steal in Toronto for the NDP?

2. Quebec - Bloc Quebecois

A majority or minority will be determined by the strength of the Bloc Quebecois. Liberals will likely hold their current seats in Montreal and gain a seat with Justin Trudeau. Beyond that there is little prospect for gains, but a prospect for losses if the NDP vote increases in Montreal either resulting in a steal for the NDP (like Outremont) or a win for the BQ as a result of the split.
In Quebec City and rural Quebec, the battle is between the Conservatives and the Bloc. A bad day for the Conservatives and a minority government would mean staying with the same amount of seats or even losing a couple. A good day would be an ADQ breakthrough similar to what was witnessed in the provincial election. Gaining a net total of 5 seats in Quebec would be success for the Conservatives at this point. The cultural community has done its damage. The BQ is riding high in the polls despite separation not being an election issue. Jean Charest has not really helped us the way we assisted him in the provincial election. Harper did have a huge rally in Quebec today that might have an impact leading to a surprise or two. 10 seats last time was frankly a surprise. Let's hope Quebec has another good election day surprise for Conservatives this time as well.

Ridings to Watch in Quebec

Westmount-Ville-Marie
Liberal and former astronaut Marc Garneau should win this safe Liberal riding.

Papineau
Liberal Justin Trudeau is widely expected to defeat BQ MP Vivian Barbot

Outremont
Will NDP Thomas Mulcair keep his seat. Will his election lead to any more seats for the NDP in the city of Montreal?

Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Senator and Conservative Minister Michael Fortier will attempt to win a seat in this riding. Bloc MP Meili Faille is looking like she might hold the seat. Liberal Brigitte Legault is also running.

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
Independent Andre Arthur is expected to win this riding. The Conservatives have not fielded a candidate against Arthur and for the most part he votes Conservative. Could become important if a few seats separate Harper from a majority.

Beauce
Maxime Bernier should have no problem holding his seat here.

Jonquière-Alma
Conservative cabinet minister John Pierre Blackburn is in a tough fight to keep his own riding.

Quebec
A Bloc held riding in the area that is friendly to Conservatives. Myriam Taschereau is the local candidate and Stephen Harper held a riding here today.

Roberval-Lac Saint-Jean
Denis Lebel won this riding for the Conservatives in a by-election. Can he hold it from the Bloc in the general election given that turnout should be higher?

Ahuntsic
Liberal Eleni Bakopanos is trying to return to parliament against BQ incumbent Maria Mourani

3. British Columbia

BC along with Ontario and Quebec are the battlegrounds that will decide the outcome of this election, both in terms of the Prime Minister and the prospects of majority or minority. Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn is in some trouble and David Emerson is not running this time in Vancouver Kingsway. The province is interesting in that there is a three way race in many parts of the province. Having said that Liberals are falling and the NDP and Conservatives seem to have made some gains. With the exception of Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South, there are not many safe Liberal seats left. Conservatives and NDP are likely to at least hold what they have. Green Blair Wilson will likely not be re-elected as a Green MP in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. Gains in this province will come down to ridings like Surrey North where Conservative Donna Cadmen is in a tough three way race with no incumbant. Ontario and BC will likely produce more gains for the Conservatives at this point than will be found in Quebec.

Ridings in BC to watch:

Surrey North
Donna Cadmen's riding. Expect some attention here, but also a potential seat gain.

Newton-North Delta
Won by the Conservatives in 2004. Sandeep Pandher has a strong chance of taking it back from Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal.

Richmond
Liberal Raymond Chan has a good chance of being defeated by Conservative Alice Wong.

Vancouver Island North
Conservative John Duncan finds himself in a head to head fight with NDP incumbant Catherine Bell

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Is Conservative Gary Lunn in trouble???

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Is Liberal Keith Martin in any kind of trouble in this tight three way race???

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Green MP Blair Wilson will attempt to defend this seat under his new colours. This is the only current Green seat. Wilson is expected to drop it, most likely to Conservative John Weston.

North Vancouver
Liberal incumbant Don Bell is facing a tough challenge from Conservative Andrew Saxton.

Vancouver Centre
Will the NDP take out Liberal leadership contender Hedy Fry?

Vancouver Kingsway
What will happen in David Emerson's former riding? NDP seems to be leading right now.

Vancouver Quadra
Conservatives almost won this in the by-election. Can Deborah Meredith beat Joyce Murray this time around?

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Conservative Randy Camp will try and hold this seat from the NDP challenge.

4. Other regional representation and the rest of Canada

Every party would like to have representation in all parts of the country. For Liberals, this means a seat in Alberta, holding on to Ralph Goodale's seat, holding the few seats they have in BC, Manitoba and the North. Conservatives would like to see Fabian Manning retain his seat and avoid getting shut out of Newfoundland thanks to Danny Williams ABC campaign. A win in PEI with the seat of Egmont would be nice. Having Conservative representation in the North through winning the seat in Nunavut would also be a bonus. The Greens also want representation and outside of Guelph, their best chance is their leader in Central Nova against Peter MacKay. All of these seats will be important for positioning in the next election campaign.

Ridings to watch elsewhere in the country

Central Nova
Green leader Elizabeth May made a questionable decision to run in Central Nova. Conservative Minister and potential future Prime Minister Peter MacKay should take this riding, but it could get interesting. No Liberal is running here, but polls show a strong NDP showing as well.

West Nova
Conservative Greg Kerr has a great show at knocking off Liberal Robert Thibault.

Avalon
Fabian Manning is likely the only chance of the Conservative Party being sweeped from Newfoundland. Manning has stood up to Danny Williams in the past and is attempting to do so again. How successful was the ABC campaign? Will Newfoundland have a representative in the government? Both of those questions will be answered here.

Egmont
Best shot at a Conservative seat in PEI. Best shot at a representative inside government for PEI. Gail Shea will attempt to bring some blue to the island.

Fredericton
Won by Liberal Andy Scott who is leaving politics. Keith Ashfield has a strong chance of bringing this one to the Tories.

Madawaska-Restigouche
Another potential pickup in New Brunswick for the Conservatives. Liberal Jean Claude D'Amours will again face Jean Pierre Ouellet. Last time less than 1000 votes split this riding

Nunavut
Leona Aglukkaq has a good chance of winning this tight three way race. Nunavut's Premier has come out against the carbon tax and the Liberal incumbant is retiring. All three leaders have been here showing a tight three way race.

Saint Boniface
Liberal Raymond Simard could drop this Winnipeg area riding to Conservative Shelly Glover.

Churchill
The NDP might take this one from Liberal Tina Keeper now that their vote isn't split this time.

Wascana
Ralph Goodale's seat and the only Liberal won left in Saskatchewan

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Conservative incumbant Carol Skelton is leaving politics. She leaves a tough two way fight between Conservative Kelly Block and NDP Nettie Wiebe

Edmonton Center
Landslide Annie is gone. Don't count on this one going red. It was the last Liberal seat in Alberta. Conservative Laurie Hawn should have no problems with Anne McLellan no longer running.

4. Voter Turnout

I expect voter turnout. What will the turnout be and how will it impact the results. Some argue that it is harder to get your people to come out when you are in government. Others argue Liberal voters may stay home because of Dion. NDP supporters will likely turnout because they have a chance to form the opposition. Green supporters will likely turnout because their party has run a mainstream campaign. Conservatives can win a majority or lose. Liberals can win a minority or lose bad. Turnout will likely affect all of these things.

5. Green and the NDP party

The left is split and how well the NDP and Greens do, could cost the Liberals seats in many close ridings. In three way races, the more equally the vote is split between NDP, Liberal and Green voters, the less vote they need to come up the middle. Will there be any surprise Conservative wins because strategic voting did not take place? Will there be that usual last minute rush to the Liberals to stop a Conservative majority? It will be interesting to see if there is any strategic voting impact in this campaign, votefortheenvironment.ca got a million hits during the course of this campaign. Vote swap groups on Facebook have also been set up. Will there be motivation to strategically vote during an election where there is likely to be low turnout and minimal emotion on the major issues? Liberals need strategic voting to keep this election to a Harper minority.

6. Majority or minority

A majority government will mean all of the parties will have four years to rebuild. A minority means an election could take place as early as the first budget or within a couple of years time. A minority minus a few seats could be interesting. Would Bill Casey or Andre Arthur join the party? Would any Liberals cross the floor in the middle of a leadership race to grant a majority to Harper? The stronger the minority the less coalition partners you need to pass legislation. Numbers will be important as they will suggest how long the next parliament will last.

7. Any leadership races on the horizon?

Stephen Harper - says the Conservative party will find a new leader if he loses power

Stephane Dion - says he will stay on as leader even if he loses, but that is not realistic

Jack Layton - more popular than his party but is it time for someone new?

Gilles Duceppe - wants the PQ job but will stay in his role until timing is right

Elizabeth May - will face trouble for her relations with Dion but will take the Greens to their best election performance even without a seat.

If Dion loses, it is widely expected that candidates like Trudeau, McGuinty, Ignatieff, Rae, Findlay and others could start their leadership races on Tuesday night.

8. Economy surprises on election day

Will the markets deliver any news or decline that may impact Canadians as they are about to vote? Given what we have seen over the past few weeks, anything is possible on Monday or Tuesday.

9. Thanksgiving

Last time Canadians had a family dinner was over the Christmas break in December. It seemed to benefit Stephen Harper. Will family conversations lead to more Conservative votes or Liberal ones? Will it encourage the strategic voting? This is the wildcard and there will not be any time to change minds after the holiday.

10. Women, new Canadian, Quebec, urban and young voters

Did the Conservative Party breakthrough to any of these groups required to win a majority? They will be required to pull of victories in the targeted swing ridings. Results Tuesday will demonstrate if Conservative efforts to target these demographics paid off.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl