My predictions: Canadian Federal Election 2008
National Prediction:
CPC: 136, LIB: 85, NDP: 35, BQ: 50, IND: 2, GREEN 0
(155 required for a majority government)
Conservative minority with Stephen Harper as Prime Minister
***Election Turnout will be 56%
York Region:
Liberal 3, Conservative 3
Conservative pick ups in Newmarket-Aurora and Thornhill
***
Conservative: 136
BC: 22, Alberta: 28, Sask 13; Manitoba 8; North 1; Ontario 47; Quebec 9; NB 4; NS 3; PEI 0; NFLD 1
Key predictions:
-Gary Lunn will hold his seat in BC
-Donna Cadmen will win her seat for the Conservatives
-Greens will lose their only seat to the Conservatives in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
-Conservatives will win every seat in Alberta
-Conservatives will win all but one in Saskatchewan
-Conservatives will hold their results in Manitoba
-Lisa Raitt will defeat Garth Turner, Newmarket-Aurora will go blue. Other key Ontario wins will come in Mississauga, Oakville, London West and two rural seats Brant and Huron Bruce.
-Gains will come in Ontario and BC. Will take at least one loss in Quebec.
-Michael Fortier will be defeated
-Peter MacKay will defeat Elizabeth May in Nova Scotia
-Robert Thibault will be defeated in West Nova
-Potential gains for the Conservatives in New Brunswick and Nunavut
-Fabian Manning will win his seat in Newfoundland. Conservatives will be shut out of PEI again.
-No wins for Conservatives in Montreal or Toronto
***
Liberal 85
BC 5; ALB: 0; SASK 1; MAN 3; North 1; ONT 42; QUE 14; PEI 4; NB 5; NFLD 5; NS 5
Key Predictions:
-Will lose seats in Ontario and BC
-Justin Trudeau will be elected in Quebec as will Marc Garneau
-Will not win a seat in Alberta
-Will win most seats in Toronto and Montreal
-Gerard Kennedy will be defeated
-Ralph Goodale will win his riding
-Will make a pick up in Newfoundland and potentially elsewhere in Atlantic Canada
NDP 35
BC 9; ALB 0; SASK 0; MAN 3; North 1; ONT 17; QUE 1; NB 1; NS 2; NFLD 1; PEI 0
-Jack Layton and Olivia Chow will win their ridings
-Peggy Nash will hold her seat
-Look for potential NDP gains in BC, Northern Ontario, Beaches in Toronto, Newfoundland and potentially Atlantic Canada
-No additonal seats in Quebec
-Will not beat Ed Broadbent's record or form official opposition
Bloc Quebecois 50
QUE: 50
-Will take out Conservative Minister Jean Pierre Blackburn
-Will defeat Conservative Minister Michael Fortier
-Will be defeated by at least 2 Liberals including Justin Trudeau
-Will remain a strong force in Quebec
Independent Candidates 2
NS 1; QUE 1
-Former Conservative Bill Casey will win his seat in Nova Scotia
-Independent Andre Arthur will win his riding in Quebec where he is not facing a Conservative opponent
Green Party: 0
Canada: No Seats
-Elizabeth May will lose to Peter MacKay
-Greens will do best in Guelph and in Blair Wilson's BC riding
-At least one second place showing but no seats
PREDICTIONS FOR YORK REGION:
York Simcoe: Conservative - Peter Van Loan
Newmarket-Aurora: Conservative - Lois Brown
Thornhill: Conservative - Peter Kent
Oak Ridges Markham: Liberal - Lui Temelkovski
Markham-Unionville: Liberal - John McCallum
Richmond Hill: Liberal - Bryan Wilfert
