Modeling Journey

Seems these two have been getting some feedback from Canadians that it is time to replace the dysfunctional, do-nothing, foot-dragging, ideologically-unsuited-for-a-recession, excessively partisan, incompetent and untrustworthy minority Conservative government with a new one come September:

"Both Layton and Duceppe admitted there's little public appetite for an election, but they say people are telling them it's time to get rid of Stephen Harper's government."

This makes the most likely course of events in some 40 days or so the following: Parliament reconvenes. The Liberals table a no-confidence motion in the government (because of inaction on EI, words but little action on the stimulus plan, a massive deficit without any realistic plan for its reduction, general incompetence and mismanagement of the country's affairs, and the lack of trust the Harper government is engendering through its steadfast refusal to try to make Parliament work with a minority government).

The Tories vote against the motion, but Duceppe and Layton and the Liberals vote for it.

The government is defeated. The Governor General obeys established constitutional convention and turns to the party with the next highest seats (the Liberals) to form the government and win a vote of confidence.

Ignatieff does so.

The Bloc and the NDP reflect on what they have been hearing from voters during this summer of our discontent, and they put their heads together, and make the following statement:

"Because the House has no confidence in the Conservatives and has voted against them governing, and because the Liberal Party has not gained a majority of the seats in the House, because the country needs a period with political stability and more progressive policies, and because Michael Ignatieff is on record as having broken his written commitment to a coalition accord and governance agreement, therefore the Bloc and NDP parties will vote for the minority Liberal government, provided that:

1. We will be putting this government on probation, and will hold them responsible for any future failure to plan and act as a government which considers the best interests of ordinary Canadians, given the severity of the current recession. The new Liberal government will be required to take positive steps to ensure that Parliament functions properly despite their minority position, and to report to Parliament once every quarter on steps it has taken and plans to take to combat the recession's negative impact on ordinary Canadians.

2. Should the new Liberal government not agree prior to this vote of confidence to this procedure, then neither Bloc nor the NDP will vote their confidence in the Liberal government.

3. And should the Liberal government not provide the quarterly reports, or act during each quarter in a manner which appropriately considers the interests of ordinary Canadians in the recession, then the Bloc and NDP will abstain from supporting the new Liberal government in any future confidence motion.

4. And Bloc and NDP MPs will be watching the Liberal Government like hawks to see that it provides suitable progressive governance to Canadians."

The choice will then lie with Ignatieff whether he agrees to the terms of probation, and is prepared to report back each quarter on the implementation of progressive governance.

Should Ignatieff not publicly agree to these conditions, the Bloc and NDP would not vote for the Liberal government, nor would they vote against it.

Their abstention would leave it up to Harper's Conservatives to decide whether to vote against the minority Liberal government December or January at the time of the first confidence vote.

If Harper votes Ignatieff down, the Governor General will most likely call a new election, and both Harper and Ignatieff will have to explain to Canadians why they have once again plunged the country into a costly election.

And if Ignatieff does not honour the conditions of probation laid down for him by Duceppe and Layton, then these two parties will abstain from future confidence votes, leaving it up to Harper to decide whether to pull the plug on Ignatieff.