Harper united the right and now rules as prime minister with a minority government, faced by a divided centre-left opposition. Harper managed to demonize the Coalition proposed by the LPC and NDP and supported by the Bloc, and to spook Michael Ignatieff into walking away from the agreement signed by all the Liberals (including himself).
A new election is in the offing within 12 months.
The Tories and Liberals are locked into a deadlock dance, with each appealing to roughly the same segments of the electorate, and with roughly the same percentages of voters saying they support each party.
The NDP faces a dilemma: it has increased its seats in the House, but has not made a breakthrough with enough voters to become a realistic contender for becoming the government. It either changes its strategy, or it has to reconcile itself to remaining a protest group, representing a small segment of the population, and facing cannibalism by the Green Party.
But all is not lost for the NDP, if they are prepared this weekend at their retreat, to think about a bold new strategy which will achieve these objectives:
1 Remove the Tories as the government after the next election.
2 Preserve as many of the current NDP seats as possible.
3 Enable the NDP to become part of a Liberal-NDP government after the next election, with seats in the cabinet, and an agreed centre-left program to be implemented over the first 3 years.
4 Give the Bloc reason for supporting the Liberal-NDP government.
5 Make this happen without the Liberal Party having to agree before the election to any coalition with the NDP.
The Cat hears snorts of "Impossible!" coming from the left and the right. Bear with me.
How can the NDP achieve the above objectives on its own?
By being bold, daring and pre-emptive.
By setting as its target the achievement of points 1 to 5 above in the coming election.
And by setting out very clearly the ways in which it will achieve these objectives, and going into the election with these objectives and these ways clearly presented to voters, and to the other two opposition parties.
What does the NDP have to do?
Simply these 3 steps, announced well before the coming election:
First step – that the NDP will run candidates in all seats currently held by an NDP MP, but will not run seats in any other riding where there is a reasonable chance that a Liberal candidate, if enough NDP voters support him or her, can replace a Tory MP. In other words, unilateral strategic voting by the NDP and by voters supporting the NDP.
Second step – set out clearly the cabinet seats the NDP expects to have in a Liberal-NDP government after the election, as well as the major programs which the NDP expects the Liberal-NDP government to implement in the first 3 years of its mandate. The NDP will undertake in advance not to vote against the Liberal government if it is given these cabinet seats and if the core issues are implemented. The NDP will reserve the right to vote against the Liberals on all non-core issues other than confidence measures.
Third step – state very clearly that should the Liberals gain more seats than the Tories but not a majority in the House, then the NDP will support it as a government if but only if the second step is formally agreed to before the first vote of confidence in the minority Liberal government. If such formal agreement is not made by the LPC, the NDP will vote against the minority Liberal government even if this means the Tories (with fewer seats than the Liberals) are asked by the Governor General to attempt to form a government and gain the confidence of the House.
There you have it – three issues (unilateral strategic voting by the NDP supporters; core issues of a joint Liberal-NDP government to be implemented in the first 3 years; and a formal agreement by the LPC with the NDP after the election but before the first vote of confidence to carry these out.)
Where does that leave the Liberal Party?
It has to consider carefully several things.
Can it gain a majority if the NDP carries out unilateral strategic voting?
If the answer is yes, it can ignore the proposal and hope that it wins a majority of seats and does not need propping up by any party.
If the answer is No, then it will have several months to contemplate the core issues and the prospect of a joint Liberal-NDP government for the first 3 years.
If it wins a minority of seats but more than the Tories, and does not agree to the NDP proposal, it will not have any support from the NDP, and will have to rely on the Tories and the Bloc to support it.
The Tories might do so (rather than see anything that might lead to a unification of the centre-left vote), but this could lead to voters bleeding off from the Liberals and voting for the Bloc, the Greens and the NDP. It will also face the prospect that the NDP unilateral strategic voting decision will fall away come the next election, which will increase the chances that the Tories will gain more seats than the Liberals, and the Liberals will once more be in opposition rather than in government.
The Bloc might support the Liberals and keep it in power as a minority government, but it will only do so if the Liberals agree on certain matters which the Bloc wants addressed. The chances of the Bloc voting for the Liberals will depend on whether the core issues tabled by the NDP are more attractive to the Bloc than the chance that the Liberals might pursue programs more to the Bloc's liking. Besides, relying on the Bloc to survive seems to be Michael Ignatieff's worst nightmare (based on his reasons for walking away from his signature on the Coalition agreement).
Worth a chance, Jack?
Think about it this weekend.
Just changing the name of your party won't get you power to participate in governing Canada.
But changing the contours of the game just might do that.
Be bold, and aim for a breakthrough. Canadians would benefit from a centre-left government in these troubled times, given the Tory government's inaction and evasions.
