Modeling Journey

Harper's Tories are having a change of heart:

"The Conservatives are breaking their own taboo by starting to call on Canadians to award them a majority government in the next election.

The tactic will be part of an appeal for stability in a recession if the opposition defeats the government in the Commons early this fall, a year after the last election.

The Conservatives expect to contrast their call for a majority with two other potential scenarios they hope will prove less appealing: a Liberal minority and a Liberal-NDP coalition."

What's driving this change of heart?

Simply this: Harper's worst nightmare.

The polls show that the Tory and Liberal parties are both stuck in the low 30's of public choice should an election be held today.

And neither party has a surefire way of gaining a majority.

So where does this leave Harper? If he wins another minority he has to win a vote of confidence.

And it is probable that the he will not be able to get that vote. The Liberals might well vote against him, simply because his election campaign will be another Harper minimalist one, with a handful of sound bytes and little substance. And Ignatieff will realize that he should not voluntarily morph himself into a Dion-clone by yet again propping up a policy-challenged, incompetent, mismanaging, and bankrupt Tory government.

And that would mean the end of Harper's minority government, and the end of Harper.

And the Governor General, obeying the weight of established constitutional precedent, turning to the next in line party (the Liberals) to attempt to form a government which will have the confidence of the House.

And that vote will succeed, because the NDP and Bloc will support a minority Liberal government, provided that government agrees to follow core policies acceptable to those two parties for the foreseeable future. This could be done as a de facto support, without any formal agreements entered into between the parties, or in a more formal way.

No matter what way it goes, Harper knows that the writing is on the wall for him. So he is now laying the groundwork for the only realistic campaign tactics open to him: to demonize the Liberals by talking about a coalition supported by the godless separatists and socialists, and asking all right-thinking and moral Canadians to grant him a majority.

A roll of the dice, just like his famous predecessor did.

So we can start getting used to the idea of speaking about 'former prime minister Harper' says this that and the other.

Because that's what is going to happen.

Welcome to Stephen Harper's worst nightmare.