Modeling Journey

The latest Angus Reid poll shows Liberal support has fallen 12% since July (down 4% to 30%), with the Tories increasing their lead:

"Over the summer Canadians warmed up to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative party, according to the latest Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll.
However, regional disparities continue to be story as the Conservatives struggle to get anywhere near majority territory of about 40 per cent.

The survey conducted Aug. 25 and 26, shows that 34 per cent of decided voters — up 1 percentage point from July — would vote for the Conservatives compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals, down 4 percentage points since July.

The NDP is third with 18 per cent, up 2 percentage points, followed by the Greens with nine per cent or up 2 points and the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent or down 2 points. The Greens are leading the BQ for the first time this year."

Could part of this drop in popularity be caused by the Liberal leader being virtually invisible on the policy front, and giving Harper free run on the range?

Methinks that is a big reason for the fall in favour. Harper now has a 10% lead over Ignatieff as preferred prime minister, though support for Harper is still low:

"Harper's personal popularity has taken off with 27 per cent of Canadians preferring him as prime minister compared to 17 per cent for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Layton is third with 12 per cent. In vote rich Ontario Harper leads Ignatieff by 13 points.

Even so Canadian don't seem particularly thrilled with either Harper's or Ignatieff's personal characteristics."

It seems that we, the un-wooed public, think both Harper and Ignatieff are arrogant, out of touch and (surely the kiss of death for any politician?) boring …