Modeling Journey

Known for her keen insight into Quebec, and her reasoned analysis of the realities of politics, Chantal Herbert now weighs in with an explanation of how a deal between the NDP and the LPC could put Michael Ignatieff into the prime minister's post in the near future:

"For those reasons, the Conservatives may need to do more than win the most seats in the next election to be certain to have a third shot at governing Canada for any length of time.

Coming first seat-wise will likely not do the job if the Liberals turn out to be more competitive than last fall.

In a published interview in Le Devoir earlier this week, Michael Ignatieff once again ruled out another Liberal attempt at crafting a governing coalition with the NDP in the next Parliament. But he also left the door open to other undefined "arrangements."

One obvious possibility would be a two-year governing agreement, copied on the Ontario deal David Peterson struck with Bob Rae's NDP in the mid-1980s. Peterson's Liberals were four seats behind the then-ruling Progressive Conservatives on election night. Negotiating the policy parameters of a Liberal mandate with the NDP allowed them to vault over the official winners and form a government that could count on the daily support of the New Democrat opposition for its survival.
Instead of resigning on election night in 2006, Paul Martin could have made overtures to Layton to try to stay in power. With the guaranteed support of the 29 New Democrats, he could have attempted to run Parliament with 103 Liberal MPs to the Conservatives' 124.

Back then, though, the Bloc would almost certainly have vetoed the arrangement. Quebec had just massively censured the Liberals for the sponsorship scandal. It would have been politically unthinkable for Duceppe to help them cling to power at Harper's expense.

Since then, the Quebec climate has changed for the worse for the Conservatives.

Duceppe's decision to formally support a Liberal-NDP coalition led by Stéphane Dion last fall met with widespread approval in Quebec. The concept remains popular to this day. At this juncture, more than 80 per cent of Quebecers prefer parties other than the Conservatives. Ignatieff is seen as a better potential prime minister by a ratio of 2 to 1 (followed by Layton.)

In the probable scenario of another four-way split in the House of Commons, winning 100 seats in the next election could be enough to put the Liberals within reach of power."

Of course, for this to happen, the Liberals would need to table a motion of no confidence in the Harper government later this year …