Modeling Journey

For this succinct summary of why the polls show no movement between the Liberals and Tories:

"And there is a marked split between genders. Among current voters, for example, women tend significantly to dislike both Stephen Harper and Mr. Ignatieff. Actually, for the past three years, Canadians as a whole have rarely got beyond mustering tepid interest in the two major parties, a favour the Conservatives and Liberals have returned by offering nothing approximating a national vision.

No mind-map, no soul-map, of Canada."

What the polls do show is practical commonsensical Canadian reaction: None of the above deserves a majority right now.

Both national parties have to earn a majority of seats in parliament; it will not simply fall in their laps because they are there.