Stephen Harper and Jack Layton have had their little meeting, with Layton doing a tap dance in front of reporters, trying hard not to be pinned down to anything definite.
But Layton did spell out his bottom line for supporting the minority Tories in October rather than voting them out on a Liberal no confidence motion:
"What would it take to get him to support the government? A “fundamental change in direction” — particularly EI/job creation, seniors and credit card interest rates. He doesn’t seem terribly optimistic that there’s much chance of that happening — the prime minister “seems to be in denial” on the results of his stimulus package."
Now we can wait for Michael Ignatieff to have another one-on-one with Harper, and then to do his bobbing and weaving for the media immediately afterwards.
I believe Ignatieff will vote to support the Tory minority government in October, without tabling a motion of no confidence in that government.
The Bloc might also pass on bringing the Tories down this time around, given the unilateral breach of the written agreements all three opposition parties signed when the coalition-of-protest was formed and Harper was spooked enough to rush into the House a deficit budget and spend like a drunken sailor, throwing money out left right and centre without really caring whether it was the best use of stimulus funds but trying to get the best publicity for the Tories with every million tossed out to various micro beneficiaries. Harper really lived up to his Santa-of-many-small-gifts nature in his stimulus package …
Let’s contrast two things: the four conditions Layton mentioned today to the media, and how far Ignatieff has walked away from meaningful items over the past 8 months or so.
Layton wants the following: a 'change of direction' by the Tories relating to EI/job creation, seniors and credit card interest rates. Harper might try to save his government's skin by moving closer to the NDP on EI changes, and might make token changes regarding seniors and credit card rates. But he is unlikely to agree to 360 hours qualifying period for EI, and certainly unlikely to make any major changes to create jobs (including a second stimulus package).
But what is Ignatieff's bottom line?
It seems to have shriveled from a fairly respectable list at one time down to some accommodation on EI.
So to win over the Liberals, all Harper has to do is say something nice about Ignatieff, praise the Liberals for trying to make Parliament work during this tough recession, publicly thank them for working with his government on the budget that was passed with their support, make some token changes in how parliament works, promise to talk more with the Liberals over the course of the next twelve months, and then shift closer to the Liberals on the EI issue (agree to spend an extra $2 or $3 billion a year for a fixed period of say 2 years; agree to one or two levels of lower qualifying hours being worked; and undertake to continue the task force to study the EI position and then debate further changes in 6 months of so if the jobless numbers increase and people cannot find new jobs).
Oh, and credit Michael for bringing about these changes.
And there you will have it. The Liberals will play up the changes, pat themselves on the back, and vote to support perhaps the most disastrous government the country could have in the middle of a major recession (remember all the talk about this being the worst recession for 50 years?).
And Harper will remain as prime minister, governing from a right wing ideology, dragging his feet on any meaningful and lasting stimulus changes, waiting out the easing of the recession to lift his political boat, as incoming tides always do.
And another major opportunity to replace right wing mendacity with meaningful progressive centre policies will have been lost.
