Modeling Journey

Harper has some ten days to pull a stimulus rabbit out of the hat, before the Liberals can table their craftily worded no-confidence motion. That motion has a stinger in its tail which all but forces the Governor General to at the very least talk to Dion, Layton and Duceppe, before making a decision on whether to allow a new election, or to allow the Liberals to form a minority government.

Now, put yourself in the shoes of the GG. Harper’s Tories have just been outvoted on a no-confidence motion. The country has just been put through an election. The two parties who tell her they have reached an accommodation (the NDP and LPC) between them do not command a majority of votes.

So the GG has to decide: should she give the Liberal leader time to cobble together a workable minority government? Harper will be protesting that another election should be held; that the voters should be allowed to choose the next government, not a smaller minority government than the one he leads.

What do you do?

For starters, you probably would not allow a new election until the other avenue has been tried. Why spend a third of a billion a few weeks after having spent that amount on the last election, when a massive recession, the worst in fifty years according to the Prime Minister, is bearing down on the country?

So you have to decide whether the Liberals can count on the NDP for support should the Liberals form a government. And whether both the Liberals and NDP can in turn count on the support of the Bloc for major policies the new government will want to implement to deal with the recession.

And how do you decide?

You ask for some demonstration from the Liberal leader that he or she has an agreement with the NDP and the Bloc.

If the Liberal and NDP leaders tell her face to face that they will form a coalition government, and have agreed on major policies, including who will do what, and for how long, then the GG can discreetly probe this to make sure it has some substance. The GG would probably want to know if the caucus of both parties are in full agreement with the policies and personnel.

And the GG will want some indication, either in person from Duceppe, or by some other means, that the Liberal-NDP minority government can in fact govern. How will the GG know for sure?

One way to solve all the above problems is to have a written agreement, signed by the party leaders. Most likely, two such agreements will be needed.

The first one will be between Jack Layton and Stephane Dion, setting out the terms of the deal regarding the working accord, coalition or other relationship which will be the foundation of the minority government.

The second one will be between these two and Giles Duceppe, setting out in broad terms the major policy items which the Bloc will support the minority government on, for the near future.

So, perhaps the three parties should spend the next ten days gainfully employed in drafting, agreeing and executing just such agreements.

This will also allow the new government to hit the road running, and so allay any fears of the GG that the response to the recession will be unduly delayed.

Sharpen those pencils, folks!

Or Harper will steal this opportunity away from you …