My Reflections on the American and Canadian elections and the future under this new political landscape
October 14 Canadians went to the polls and November 4 Americans went to the polls and at the end of the day Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party and Barack Obama of the Democratic Party were easily elected to office in their respective countries.
Stephen Harper has a stronger minority at 143 seats and a stronger cabinet because of the increased talent pool. Following the Conservative convention in Winnipeg, Parliament will return on November 18.
Barack Obama will likely name an all-star cabinet with names like Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, Arnold Schwarzenegger, John McCain, Michael Bloomberg, Warren Buffet, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Caroline Kennedy, Al Gore and John Kerry mentioned as possibilities. His transition is taking place right now and he will be sworn in January 20, 2009.
Both leaders have now won the prize of an economy heading for recession, a war in Afghanistan and international pressure to do something about the environment. Both leaders must now face the same issues such as how to deal with China, Russia and Pakistan. There are wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Israel and Palestine conflict remains an ongoing issue. Threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorism still exist. There are emerging economies such as India and Brazil that offer both opportunity and threats to Western economies. Genocide is going on in Sudan and Congo. Even within the Americas, we have issues with Haiti, Cuba and Venezuela. Today the world is a small place and we are all integrated together as part of the global economy. As we have seen from the US financial crisis, what happens South of the border can have a huge impact in Canada and around the world.
The economy will be priority one and a new era has likely arrived in the international fight against climate change. Kyoto is dead and Obama will attempt to lead the world towards a new agreement once he becomes president. Healthcare will be interesting with Stephen Harper supporting universal healthcare in Canada while Barack Obama tries to bring universal healthcare to America. Already we have seen the Conservative government reach out to Barack Obama by proposing solutions on the environment file in a way that acknowledges the current state of the economy. Stephen Harper stuck to his principles that he would not sign an international climate change treaty that did not include the United States and other major polluters. Obama has set ambitious domestic targets and will want to show global leadership on the issue. This is Stephen Harper’s chance to act as a bridge between Europe and America while demonstrating that Canada too has a big role to play. NAFTA may come up as an issue, but Canada has signaled it will play the energy card in negotiations and could also open up the issue of fresh water. Issues with NAFTA from the perspective of the Americans could have more to do with Mexico such as labour and environmental standards as oppose to Canada where those standards are already in place. Obama has also promised to become energy independent from the Middle East and Hugo Chavez. To reach that goal, Canadian oil will be necessary. Together a strengthened Conservative Party in Canada will have to work with a strengthened Democratic Party in the United States. Both the Conservative Party and Democratic Party seem to want to show that they are moving closer to the centre. In Canada Conservatives are moving from the right while Democrats are doing the same from the left. There is every reason to believe right now that both Obama and Harper should be re-elected, but in politics things turn on a dime. Expect these two leaders to have good relations as both have an interest in a strong relationship between Canada and the United States as well as overall prosperity in North America.
Ironically the opposition parties in the United States and Canada have a lot in common right now as well. Neither the Republicans nor the Liberals have a leader and in both cases all of the frontrunners have some major baggage. Both the Republicans and the Liberals are having trouble fundraising while facing opponents who are earning a huge advantage with small donations from a high volume of people. The Liberals and Republicans have not found away to use the internet to their advantage at this point. Both the Liberals and Republicans are not national parties on the political map following the most recent elections and have shrunk to their very core base. Both have a sense of entitlement to power, offer out of touch platforms, lack principle and have a history of corruption and scandal during their time in power. Stephen Harper in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2008 were both elected on platforms of change and will now govern. Liberals and Republicans must change internally before they offer a credible government in waiting alternative to Conservatives and Democrats. Liberals will fight amongst themselves as Ignatieff and Rae divide the party. Republicans will have the same battles between those who Sarah Palin and others who would like to see anyone else. In both cases leadership is only a small part of the overall problems with these parties. Taking responsibility for losing and doing what it takes to win again is what really matters. Liberals blame CTV while Republicans point the finger at CNN. Building membership, picking a new leader, coming up with an appealing platform, improving fundraising and putting together a campaign machine is easier said then done. Both Liberals and Republicans have neglected the grassroots. The rebuilding process is more likely to take years not months. I predict both Republicans and Liberals will likely not have their acts together by the time the next election occurs and will face opponents that likely will have strong records to run on. For Liberals it will be difficult to watch Harper perform where he performs best on the world stage as a statesman. Every meeting between Obama and Harper will be a reminder to both Liberals and Republicans that they lack relevance and are not in power.
In the United States, this election is historic because Barack Obama is now the first African American elected president, young people voted in huge numbers creating generational change and two women in both the Republican and Democratic parties played crucial roles in the 2008 presidential race. Obama’s honeymoon will be short and domestic issues will be pressing. Americans want health care. Social security is becoming a major issue. The deficit and increasing debt threatens inflation. Consumer confidence, credit availability, employment, GDP growth, housing prices and individual savings are all going down. Manufacturing jobs are being outsourced to China and elsewhere and America is running a huge trade deficit. There will be pressure for protectionism. He must find away to get the troops out of Iraq both safely and responsibly as promised. Guantanamo Bay will be shut down as promised. Finally Obama has promised energy independence, action on the environment, tax cuts for the Middle Class and Canadian style healthcare. That will be tough to achieve in his first term. He has also promised to go after Bin Laden and add significant troops to win the war in Afghanistan. He will need allies and Canada with Stephen Harper as leader will be his most reliable ally. Even among America’s enemies and rivals such as Castro, Chavez, Kim Jong Il, Dmitri Medvedev, Hu Jintao and Ahmadinejad; reaction thus far has been positive to Obama’s victory. Already it looks like Obama has healed some of the American image lost under George W. Bush. Obama will bring change to American policy on many issues that will impact Canada. His election victory will give Stephen Harper an opportunity improve his image as a moderate and portray his party as being close to the center.
In Canada the agenda will likely be continuing the course of the last two years. Dept repayment and tax cuts if there is a surplus. Controlled spending. Balanced budgets. Tough on crime stance. Leadership on the world stage. A focus on native land claims. Working towards a climate change agreement that includes China, India and the United States. Limited interference in provincial and municipal jurisdictions. Expanding free trade agreements. Managing the mission in Afghanistan until 2011. A focus on families and Canadians who work hard and play by the rules. Attempts at democratic reform including the Senate. Dealing with needs in healthcare, infrastructure and poverty reduction. Harper was largely elected to maintain the status quo during these uncertain times. Obama is more likely to find a friend who is pro-American as oppose to a rival that is pro-Bush or Republican leaning. With Obama enjoying the support of 75% of Canadians, Stephen Harper is likely to benefit from Obama's popularity as the two are seen together engaged in heavily staged press conferences and photo ops on the world stage and during visits. He is unlikely to make time for Liberal leadership contenders should he make a Canadian visit early in his presidency. Obama may face filibusters in the senate as he failed to get an absolute majority of 60 seats. Harper must deal with a minority government and the reality that an election can occur at any time.
At the end of the day the election of Barack Obama helps Conservatives and Stephen Harper. We can now get something done without the opposition parties or media accusing us of being too close to George W. Bush. Any photo ops between Obama and Harper will look great in election brochures and television advertisements down the road. Liberals should resist the temptation, get caught up in the moment and try and rip off Obama as a quick fix. Once the hype wears off, he will face serious challenges and have real decisions to make. He may not be as popular tomorrow as he is today. On top of that Liberals already jumped on the green trend after Elizabeth May’s second place showing in London. The result of that decision was Stephane Dion and electoral disaster. Liberals shouldn’t make the same mistake twice. The Star also had a good article taking a closer look at Obama’s positions on Kyoto, gay marriage and other issues. Their conclusion was that if Obama was involved in Canadian politics, he would barely qualify as a red tory. In terms of the Obama campaign, all parties could learn from it and implement some of the strategies, especially those used online in future elections. What Obama brings is change and a new reality to international and American politics. On November 18, the Conservative Party and Stephen Harper will set out a vision for governing in this new political climate with a speech from the throne that will be an automatic confidence vote.
Yes we can to free trade. Yes we can to great relations between Canada and the United States. Yes we can to victory with our NATO partners in Afghanistan. Yes we can to tax cuts for the middle class. Yes we can on the environment. Yes we Can on the arctic. Yes we Can to turning around this economy. Yes we can to tough diplomacy with our enemies. Yes we can to facing tough challenges that are not yet evident. Yes we Can to the best possible relations between Stephen Harper and Barack Obama for their mutual benefit. President Obama and Prime Minister Harper have a lot of mutual challenges that must be worked on together. I have no doubt that both have the leadership qualities to guide their nations through these difficult times. Barack Obama and Stephen Harper have far more in common than issues that divide them.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
