10 Things that will impact the US Election Outcome
Frankly, I think that by 8:00pm E.S.T. tonight, Barack Obama will be declared the next president of the United States of America. This will be confirmed or denied based on several factors that will determine the outcome of tonight's historic election.
1, Turnout among young, African American, Hispanic and Native voters. Traditionally all these groups do not vote in high numbers. Many are predicting this will change based on the candidacy of Barack Obama. If any of these groups turn out in large numbers, expect some surprises in states that went red in 2004. An influx of young and African American voters could in itself be enough to win the election for Obama tonight.
2, State of Ohio. McCain must win here. If he doesn't, it is difficult to see how mathmatically he can win enough electoral college votes to reach 270. Polls in Ohio will close fairly early tonight.
3, State of Pennsylvania. This is the only blue state that McCain has any chance of flipping that Kerry won in 2004. If McCain expects to lose in any of the states Bush won in 2004, he will need Pennsylvania to make up the difference.
4, The Palin influence and Conservative turnout. Say what you want about Sarah Palin, she has energized and motivated the conservative base for McCain. This vote must turn out. If too many McCain supporters look at the polls over the past five weeks, listen to the pundits and media, and come to the conclusion that their vote will not matter; McCain is in serious trouble. Having been on losing campaigns before, I can tell you it is tough to motivate your volunteers and supporters when you are in a situation like McCain finds himself in. Many have argued that sometimes polls hurt democracy. We could see this happen tonight.
5, Independent voters. As a maverick, McCain was very appealing to independent voters and moderate Democrats. With Sarah Palin as his running mate and in order to win the Republican nomination; McCain has been criticized by some for going to far to the right and alienating his independent support. Exit polls will likely show how independent voters cast their ballots. If this number goes heavy for Obama; it will be a bad sign for Republicans and for Palin's future.
6, Florida. If it votes in favor of Barack Obama, John McCain will lose.
7. Republican states Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada. If Obama wins in any of these states; McCain must make up the difference somewhere. McCain is playing defence. He needs the same victory as Bush in 2004. There is not much margin for error on any of these states. Polls show Obama competitive if not leading in virtually all of these states.
8, Turnout and its impact on Senate, Congress and Governor races. Republican Alaska Senator Ted Stevens could be in trouble as a result of a recent conviction. Elizabeth Dole is in trouble in North Carolina. If we see a surge in turnout for Obama, will those votes translate to other Democrats as well. The Democratic Party is likely to control the White House, Congress and Senate. High turnout for Obama in a state like North Carolina could result in a loss for Dole. If this happens elsewhere where Republican senators are in trouble, the magic 60 number could become realistic. 60 Senators would give Democrats a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.
9, Potential Obama victory speech. Will he try and reduce expectations for his presidency should he get elected tonight? There is serious concerns that Obama supporters, Democrats and the international community have set expectations for an Obama presidency that is not realistic. History will likely be made tonight and there will be a lot of hype and excitement. Given the fiscal crisis however, too high expectations could hurt his chances to get re-elected in the long term.
10, Republican concession speeches. Will Palin run in 2012? Will Republicans look to regroup and rebuild? What might be in McCain's plans for the future? How will Republicans react to the results. If Obama loses will he try again in 2012. What will Hillary say? What will be the fallout of an Obama loss, especially if there is a perception of voting irregularities? Who will be on the next president's transition team. What will tonight's results mean for the current President George W. Bush. There has been two years of build up for this election night. There has been little talk about what the potential impact will be tomorrow. International newspapers will also be interesting as they react to the results.
Overall, I stick to my original prediction of 378-160 for Obama tonight. I also think Obama will achieve over 50% of the vote with an unusually high turnout.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
