Modeling Journey

Liberal Party making the same mistakes, leadership heading for another bust

In Canadian politics, it seems like the Liberal Party is still stuck in 2006. Another leadership race has been kicked off. Key candidates have taken a pass. MPs haven't sat a day in the House, yet Liberals are already threatening an election they cannot afford to fight. Financing remains a serious problem. The great red machine that considers itself Canada's natural governing party is fighting for survival and relevance West of Ontario and in most of Quebec. Its traditional strongholds like new Canadians and the GTA are threatened by Conservatives. Since being in opposition, the party has failed to generate any meaningful new policy ideas and is consumbed by internal political battles as oppose to solutions that address the challenges everyday Canadians face. Even after the historic win of Barack Obama, Liberals seemed silent and without reaction to the victory that will have an impact on Canadian politics. The issue of leadership is important, but for the Liberal Party of Canada, it should be the least of concerns.

If you look closely at the campaign of Barack Obama, you can see the Conservatives have been building a similar machine North of the border since 2004 with the roots prior in the Reform Party. Barack Obama had a fundraising campaign that appealed to a broad base of donors that could give what they could afford. $10, $20, $50, $100, $200, $500 or the maximum individual limit. A large numbers of individuals gave in small amounts and the Obama campaign set records in contributions. On the Republican side, Ron Paul demonstrated that the same formula could work and he pulled off a successful grassroots financing campaign of his own. Liberals are still stuck in the same era as Republicans addicted to large donations from a small amount of sources. The web, social networking sites, YouTube, and email were heavily used during the American campaign. Sophistacated voter ID systems were used to identify and get out the vote on election day. The campaign was disciplined, always on message in both the media and on the trail, and it proved to be incredably strategic in their targeting of states through internal polling and call centers. Volunteers were coordinated, large in numbers and motivated to help wherever they could. Several were bused in from stronger Democratic areas and into the swing states like Virginia, Florida, Ohio and elsewhere that turned out to be competitive this election cycle. In 2006, Harper had the benefit of the sponsorship scandal to run on the message of change. In 2008, George W. Bush deserves credit for becoming such an obvious target for change in America. The Conservative campaign has put together a similar infrastructure in terms of their ability to raise money, manage the message and use technology to identify and get out the vote. Obama ran a 30 minute commercial on several networks in prime time. The first ad that Conservatives ran to define Stephane Dion took place during the Superbowl. The Obama and Harper campaigns are what a modern political campaign now looks like and is an example of what has become expected by the media and general public.

What made Obama so unique was his ability to appeal to so many first time and new voters. He brought out the African American community in record numbers and also young people for the first time as well. He positioned himself as non-partisan and has a charisma and talent for public speaking that has not been seen in recent decades. He represented generational change and the significance of being the first African American president cannot be considered lightly given the history of the United States. Being able to fill stadiums and NHL hockey arenas is completely unheard of in Canada. From the Liberal Party perspective, they are at square one in terms of trying to implement these Obama campaign strategies. Conservatives have the benefit of learning and tweaking their existing organization based on what was witnessed South of the border. I think the next priority for Conservatives in Canada should be working to build something similar to the 50 state strategy Obama put together for our 308 ridings. We are close to a majority and should make ourselves competitive in every seat we do not hold within the next two election cycles. Ground organization is crucial as is appealing to new voters.

Stephen LeDrew is usually quickly dismissed, but lately he has been making sound points about the Liberal Party and what they need to do to become relevant again. Platform, fundraising, ground organization, leadership and regional concerns are all issued that have to be addressed. Given that Liberals are threatening to bring down the government over crime issues demonstrate that there will not be much time before the next election and that this parliament will continue to be disfunctional and in campaign mode. A leadership race will be held in early May and probably after that an election will take place within a year. Liberals will make the same mistakes all over again and likely hand Stephen Harper a majority next time. Liberals need to realize that rebuilding will take years and not months. They have to take a hard look in the mirror and ask what needs to be changed to regain all the ground lost since the 2004 election campaign. They must come to terms with the fact that the right has been united and the NDP and Greens are bleeding their votes from the left while the Conservative Party itself has made gains from the right of their party. The fantasy about former progressive conservatives being disgruntled or willing to vote Liberal at this point is over. Clearly a lot of the Paul Martin Liberal supporters are now voting Conservative. A leadership race will lead to more fighting and divisions within the Liberal Party. At the end of the day there is a great chance that Michael Ignatieff will win with a portion on the left feeling alienated. Otherwise Bob Rae will be elected and many on the right of the Liberal party will be left feeling uncomfortable. Worst case scenario is if they make the same mistake as in 2006 allowing a candidate that nobody wants become the compromise winner with those in the frontrunner camps sitting on their hands or taking shots anomalously through the media during the next campaign. I predict whoever wins will be the entire Liberal rebuilding process and that little else will change within the party prior to the next campaign. One thing is also clear, there is no Obama potential among Ignatieff, Rae or LeBlanc.

The world and country are changing and Liberals need to as well. They need to be proactive and not reactive. In the last campaign all they did was jump on negative media headlines about the Conservatives. Mulroney, "in and out" scheme, arts cuts, Omar Kadar, ABC Campaign, Gerry Ritz, young offenders act and other issues that were largely inside baseball to average voters. These issues took priority over the Liberals defining their vision for Canada. The carbon tax was political suicide because it was introduced a few months after the green issue was overtaken by the economy. Other Liberal platforms sounded like the promises of yesterday and not the future. For example Liberals have been hammering on Kyoto for years, but with Obama soon to come to power with likely a new attitude on the issue from Washington; it is Harper that is going to be in a position to work with Obama and take credit for advocating a position on climate change that includes the United States and other large polluters. Obama opposes Kyoto and very few countries will reach their targets. Kyoto is dead and Liberals need to move on with the world. The economic position of the country makes Liberal promises such as national childcare seem irresponsible. The Liberal position on Quebec and their brand of federalism now seems outdated. Canada has become more conservative in recent years while the Liberal part has been moving further to the left. If they do not get their act together soon, they will be left ignored on the sidelines while others manage the changing political realities. Liberals need a generational change, but will come back with one of the candidates that was a runner up last time and has the resources to get into this race. What is needed is a candidate who can redefine and take Liberalism into the 21st century.

Will the Chretien wing or the Martin wing prevail? Will the party move to the left with Rae or to the right with Iggy? Who is willing to pay $90,000 to raise their profile and hope that they can come up the middle in this race? With so much election fatigue following elections federally, provincially (Quebec now voting), in America, and locally; how much are people going to get excited about another Liberal leadership race with the same candidates following the Montreal race that happened only two years ago? With no money to spend and looking to do this process on the cheap; will this race make Liberals look any more ready to govern?

The candidates: Who is Out

The two most dangerous candidates have decided not to run. Justin Trudeau, although inexperienced is someone with the name recognition that could have brought some media attention and excitement to the Liberal leadership race. Maybe in the future, but this time he is out. For the second time Frank McKenna has decided the challenge of building the Liberal Party is too great for him to leave the corporate world. He was a candidate who was not from Toronto and who had the economic credentials and the potential to bring the party back to the center by moving right. John Manley for the second time also decided not to run, a candidate who likely faced backlash for agreeing to be on the Afghanistan panel appointed by Stephen Harper and for lacking charisma despite the strong experience on his resume. Scott Brison and Carolyn Bennett have already said they are out as well this time. Joe Volpe is unlikely to try again after his performance last time. I can't see Hedy Fry in again either. After leading Ontario into "have not" status I would think Dalton McGuinty is going to stay right where he is. Same goes for Gordon Campbell in B.C.

The candidates: Who is In

Michael Ignatieff is the frontrunner right now and has the most credible team behind him. Bob Rae is obviously in the race again and may have more opportunity to grow than Ignatieff after the first ballot. Dominic Leblanc seems to have positioned himself in the media and within the party as the Dion style compromise candidate who can come up the middle.

The candidates: Who might get In despite barriers

Martha Hall Findlay, Ken Dryden and Gerard Kennedy might decide to run but both are heavily in debt. Below is a listing of all Liberal debts from the last leadership race courtesy of the Hill Times.

Liberal Leadership 2006 Candidates' Debts, Payments:


Maurizio Bevilacqua

Total loan: $515,188

Loan paid: $265,808

Unpaid claim: $19,998

Balance owed: $269,378


Scott Brison

Total loan: $200,000

Loan paid: $50,000

Unpaid claim: $95

Balance owed: $150,095


Stéphane Dion

Total loan: $905,000

Loans paid: $280,000

Unpaid claim: $2,860

Balance owed: $627,860


Ken Dryden

Total loan: $330,995

Loan paid: $0

Unpaid claim: $64,894

Balance owed: $395,890


Hedy Fry

Total loan: $153,500

Loan paid: $49,000

Unpaid claim: $0

Balance owed: $104,000

Martha Hall Findlay

Total loan: $130,000

Loan paid: $0

Unpaid claim: $54,460
Balance owed: $184,460


Michael Ignatieff

Total loan: $570,000

Loan paid: $426,500

Unpaid claim: $0

Balance owed: $143,500


Gerard Kennedy

Total loan: $451,170

Loan paid: $195,750

Unpaid claim: $66,941

Balance owed: $322,361


Joseph Volpe

Total loan: $341,556

Loan paid: $181,266

Unpaid claim: $0

Balance owed: $160,290


Obviously these debts are major barriers and are hard to pay off under the new rules. Can Martha Hall Findlay, Gerard Kennedy, and Ken Dryden afford to double down with the entry fee raised to $90,000? That really just leaves wild card candidates like Ruby Dhalla, Ralph Goodale, Ujjal Dosanjh, Martin Cauchon, Denis Coderre and David McGuinty all remain possibilities. Some of these candidates do not speak French hurting their chances of being successful. Right now it is shaping up as a three way race between Rae, Ignatieff and LeBlanc. There doesn't seem to be any outsiders left that might run either.

Finally there is a good chance Stephane Dion will lead Liberals into the next election if he continues to make the same old mistakes as last time. If I was Harper I would not back down on these crime bills. If Dion wants to charge the taxpayer another $300 million over his soft on crime stance, I would be happy to fight another election asking for a majority to allow us to get things done. I hope we do not see another session of Liberals huffing and puffing and then sitting down. Just say from the beginning you need time to rebuild and will allow this parliament to work until Liberals are willing and able to fight an election. Talking tough and abstaining is the same mistake as last time. Any election before May would be suicidal and Liberals know it. If they cannot afford to have a proper leadership convention, how can they expect to face Conservatives in a general election?

It is a shame what the Liberal Party has become. It is clear that there road to rebuilding will be long and that it will take some time to get there. In the meantime Conservatives should continue to build while Liberals continue to self destruct. I am not sure there is anyone in this race that can prevent Liberals from making the same mistakes or simply becoming relevant again. Of course we should not get cocky though as there will be tough economic issues to address and for some reason the Liberal brand always remains resiliant and strong. As a Conservative, I would like to see Bob Rae come out on top. My prediction though is that Michael Ignatieff will win this time after several ballots.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl