Modeling Journey

NDP tied with Liberals, Toronto should vote "strategically" Conservative

Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party seem to be falling without any indication of a floor in support. Today's Toronto Star poll now has the NDP and the Liberals tied. They are also reporting that the NDP is surging in cities and that may cut into their former stronghold of Toronto. Gerard Kennedy must be sweating right now in a tight race against Peggy Nash. The Star poll also has Conservatives in majority territory before the English language debate where Harper is expected to do well against Dion as well Layton.

This is not a time to get cocky or to relax our efforts. October 14 is still 18 days away and it is crucial we work hard until this sale is closed. Having said that, this should be good motivation for Conservative and NDP troops while at the same time completely demoralizing for Liberal volunteers. Liberals are trailing in most swing ridings including in Newmarket-Aurora right now.

The longer this campaign goes, the stronger the support for the Conservatives, Greens, NDP and the Bloc it seems. Strategic voting may be tough for the left now as Jack Layton surges. Who do "progressives" unite behind at this point?

I recommend a different kind of strategic voting to avoid getting let down like last time when Liberals abstained from voting 42 times. If I lived in the city of Toronto right now, I would be looking at these numbers and saying a Conservative majority is likely if not probable. Under those circumstances would you not want to have a representative in the government party? Voters in Don Valley West (vote John Carmichael) should especially think long and hard about their vote this time. I have no authority to hand out cabinet posts obviously, however if I was a betting man I would gamble that any Conservative who gets elected in the 416 will go to cabinet. There is no reason to fear a Conservative majority, but if I was a resident of Toronto I might fear a majority government with the entire city of Toronto in oppositon. Anyone heard from Danny Williams lately? I think it is time to consider some blue representation in Toronto. 416 voters could always hold their Conservative MP accountable if they feel Toronto is not getting a fair deal. I guarantee you a Toronto MP in caucus will get more done for cities than a Liberal MP caught in a leadership race and forced to abstain in order to avoid another election they aren't prepared to fight. I don't know who will finish second between Dion's Liberals and Layton's NDP. I do know Harper will be the next Prime Minister unless a major gaffe takes place over the next 18 days. Majority or minority? Rigth now it is too close to call, but GTA residents should consider voting strategically for the Conservatives!

The choice in Newmarket-Aurora is also clear. We need a voice at the table. Lois Brown is that strong voice!

I hope I do not come across as over confident, I just want voters to think about how they cast their vote given these current poll numbers. The GTA is important to this country and there are several issues around the 905 and in the city that the government needs to address. For current Conservative supporters, please do not look at these polls and come to the conclusion that your vote is not needed. We need every vote we can get in Newmarket-Aurora and throughout the GTA. I hope we get at least one seat in Toronto proper as well this time. Keep working hard!!!!!

Thanks for reading...
-Darryl

TORONTO STAR/ANGUS REID POLL

40% Conservatives

21% Liberals

21% NDP

10% Bloc

7% Green

Margin of error: 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

Sample size: 1,508 respondents.

Conducted: Sept. 24–25.