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Saturday 13 September 2008
Campaign Update Week 1 - Newmarket-Aurora
The campaign federally has gone well despite a few bumps early on. Polls show a gain in momentum for the Conservative Party and that is because Stephen Harper has played to his strengths, ran on his record and used the strong party organization to his advantage early in this campaign. There are three major issues right now. Leadership, the economy and the carbon tax. Harper is on the right side of all of those issues and it seems the Liberal campaign is falling apart under Dion's leadership. Right now a lot of Liberals are talking about who will be the next leader of the party and this has become the focus in the media. As polls increase, seats in Northern Ontario, the GTA, Quebec, B.C. and elsewhere become winnable. Newmarket-Aurora is of course one of those seats. The NDP is gaining strength. They are polling even with the Liberals and challenging for official opposition status. The Greens have had a good week. They are now in the debates and the media is giving them equal coverage to the other parties. They are seen as mainstream and are running in 307 ridings. Together the left is split with Harper taking more and more from the middle of the spectrum. Harper has had a great week as he is opening up a major lead in popular vote, leadership and on the majority of issues according to polls in the media. He is relaxed and showing his personal side more on the campaign trail. He is seen as a steady hand while everyone else seems like a risky option. It is looking like a majority or minority government is almost certain at this point unless we defeat ourselves in the next 30 days. As Harper and the Conservative Party continue to do well nationally, the better our chances to take back this riding federally with the same vote that elected Frank Klees here provincially in October 2007. Thanksgiving weekend is coming fast and Dion and the Liberals have a lot of ground to make up in a 5 week period of time.
The Toronto Star had this to say about the race in Newmarket-Aurora as one of it's Ontario ridings to watch:
"How will Finance Minister James Flaherty perform in a knock-down, drag-out fight in Whitby-Oshawa? The Liberals are nominating Brent Fullard, who has led the fight against Flaherty's decision to tax income trusts after the party had promised not to. Fullard has also worked for General Motors in Oshawa, which is struggling through the manufacturing downturn in Ontario. Newmarket-Aurora, outgoing Liberal Belinda Stronach's riding, will also be fascinating, maybe even bellwether. She first won it as a Conservative, before joining Paul Martin's Liberals. And, despite her personal wealth and profile, she won by less than 5,000 votes last time. If Harper nibbles toward Toronto proper, her riding will be one of the first morsels. In southwestern Ontario, a key battleground in these gloomy economic times, Cambridge is shaping up as a nail-biter. The incumbent Tory, second-termer Gary Goodyear, has gone through some tough scrapes in Parliament. Manufacturing accounts for 20 per cent of jobs. The fact that four Liberals battled it out for the nomination, and that was last November, may be a clue. Former Conservative, now Liberal, Garth Turner has a fight on his hands in Halton, where Tory party bosses upset the locals by installing the head of Toronto's port authority, Lisa Raitt, as their star candidate."
More info about our riding can be found here.
In Newmarket-Aurora we have had a great week. Our sign team has been committed since teh writ was dropped and today was no different. We have over a thousand residential sign locations in the riding and in my home town Newmarket looks like Alberta right now outnumbering the Liberals 20-1 in signs on people's homes. Aurora is about 10-1 in residential properties and the entire riding is at least 3-1 in public large sign locations. The blue stakes have also had a nice impact. This was all possible because of a large team of volunteers who are working tirelessly giving up their weekends, evenings or days to get Lois and the Conservative Party elected. It is also because requests are coming in like crazy demonstrating popular support among regular voters. Signs are not necessarily a reflection of voting intentions but it does say something about our campaign and what is happening with popular opinion within Newmarket-Aurora.
For almost two years, Lois has been out knocking on doors and attending community events. This has not changed during the campaign and she has been working hard to earn votes every day. Lois is like the Energizer bunny and that motivates us because we know how hard she will work for the people of Newmarket and Aurora should she be fortunate enough to go to Ottawa. She has been open and friendly with the media as you will see on the CBC and have already seen in the local media. “I’ll be more media friendly. That was something I was not relaxed with and it showed through. I know I need to be forthcoming,” Lois was quoted in the Era Banner this week. Lois also launched her website http://www.loisbrown.ca this week and her Facebook group got 10 new members today surpassing the Tim Jones group. The official campaign launch and the opening of our second office in Aurora is coming soon. Our weekend canvass and sign blitzes are going well. New volunteers are coming in every day while are strong base and experienced veterans are engaged and motivated.
On Wednesday we started preparation for the debates and from what I saw, Lois has come a long way from the 2006 campaign. She is very prepared on policy and will be ready as the Newmarket, Aurora and Rogers televisions debates take place in the weeks ahead. Lois was very impressive on Wednesday night and we threw everything at her making it as tough as possible so that she could be properly prepared for whatever questions come up from the real debates and the partisan planted audience representing all sides. Lois is the only female in this contest as we now know Mike Seaward is going to be representing the NDP. Glenn Hubbers is the Green Party candidate, Tim Jones is the Liberal candidate and Dorian Baxter will be in this race representing the Progressive Canadian Party. There will likely be a few other fringe candidates who jump into the race as well.
As part of my assignment with the CBC, I can also tell you that momentum is moving throughout York Region. North of me in York Simcoe, Peter Van Loan is in a very strong position to be re-elected in what is considered by most as a safe Conservative riding. He is a major player in cabinet and has done a good job of representing his constituents. Newmarket-Aurora, Oakridge- Markham and Thornhill could go either way depending on how the rest of this race shapes up. I attended Peter Kent's campaign launch and was impressed with their large base of volunteers and how well received his speech was. If he gets elected he will be a huge asset to York Region and the Conservative caucus. Stephen Harper has spent a lot of time in the GTA in the last few weeks and I believe it is having an impact in those crucial 905 area ridings around Toronto.
Right now I feel very fortunate to volunteer along side an experienced campaign team for a candidate, leader and party we all feel enthusiastic and motivated to support. Get out the vote, media relations and the debates will be crucial along with the remainder of the national campaign over the next 30 days. After week one though, we are off to a good start. So far it has been a very fun campaign to play a role in. I have got confidence we are on the right track to getting Lois elected MP for Newmarket-Aurora.
-Darryl
