Factor two things into your calculations, and you might find that the Liberals can form the next government even if they win fewer seats than the Tories.
The two things to consider are (i) that the Tories might not win a majority of seats (if they do, they will form the government); and (ii) that the opposition parties usually collectively represent by far the majority of votes cast, and the majority of seats in Parliament.
So, what can Dion do now to prepare to take over the government in just over a month’s time?
Let’s assume that between them the Liberals, Greens and NDP together win slightly more seats in Parliament than the Tories do, even though the Tories have the most seats of all parties.
Dion should task a small group to explore the terms on which the Greens, NDP and Liberals could govern. If suitable terms are found, and an agreement in principle reached between May, Layton and Dion before election day, then as soon as the result is announced, Dion can claim that he has the majority support in Parliament of all parties, and approach the Governor General to form the government.
Why would this work?
Because there are probably more similarities between the Greens, Liberals and NDP than between those 3 parties individually and the Tories.
Why should Layton agree?
Because he will be able to influence the parliamentary agenda for the next four years, and have policies his party espouses fleshed out in bills.
This would not be a formal merger of the 3 parties, but a looser coalition, similar to what we have seen in the past.
Who would benefit?
The majority of Canadians, who do not want Harper to lead a majority government, but who seem to prefer minority governments.
