Possible Conservative responses to a coalition:
Right now the million dollar question that is not known is how the public will react to a coalition government led by separatists. Liberal, NDP and possibly BQ partisans love it. Conservative partisans hate it. What is unknown is where the average Joe voter stands. I suspect Harper’s approval ratings have taken a hit, Canadians do not want an election and Canadians are likely angry about a coalition that includes Quebec separatists outside of Quebec. In the event this coalition goes down next Monday, following the budget or at a later time; here are some potential Conservative options to counter it.
1, Frequently put forward non-confidence motions. Liberal leadership candidates will want to travel. Ministers will have to travel on business. People will get sick or not be in the House for a variety of reasons. Putting forward frequent confidence votes through private members bills, opposition days or committee amendments could force the government to keep all members in Ottawa in order to maintain the confidence of the House. If we are lucky, an election would take place when the coalition least expects it.
2, Put forward divisive motions. “Canada recognizes Quebec as part of Canada”, “Canada supports the current mission in Afghanistan until 2011”, “A motion to restore 50 billion in tax cuts to corporations to create jobs in the economy”, use divisions in the Liberal leadership race to create confidence motions forcing unity and targeting the bases of each party could all put pressure on this coalition to stay together or lock the opposition parties into positions they would not want to defend in an election campaign.
3, Offer no support on any legislation regardless of its merits put forward by the coalition government. Consider voting with the coalition as legitimizing the government and refuse to take that step. This means without the support of all three coalition partners nothing would get passed. The NDP-Liberals are going to try and present a solution where the BQ agrees to prop up this coalition on confidence matters for a year. That agreement might not be good enough for the GG leading her to call an election. Constantly opposing and refusing to abstain would limit the government to only passing legislation the separatists and socialists agree on. Liberals would be forced to give into extortion or go into an election and defend this coalition with limited arguments in their ability to attack their coalition partners. They should not count on us to be cooperative or reduce the poisoned atmosphere in the House because of these actions.
4, Run a heavy media and public relations campaign. Link Liberals to separatists. Question if Jack Layton is trustworthy to handle the economy. Attack the legitimacy of Dion and whoever the next PM is. Highlight the fact that voters rejected Dion and this government. Portray the Liberals as willing to do anything from power including overturning an election by working with socialists and separatists. The lower the coalition approval ratings the better for us.
5. Work with the Western Premiers. They will get screwed by this arrangement in terms of government representation. Portray this whole situation as Western Canada’s voice in government being robbed by separatists and Toronto MPs. Hopefully at least one Premier would not recognize the new government. This arrangement gives us the potential to wipe out all opposition MPs West of Manitoba.
6. Use committee seats to block, stall or change legislation.
7. Throw everything into by-elections. Target MPs passed up for cabinet posts or in vulnerable ridings to cross the floor. Attempt to take back government by recruiting enough members to form a majority coalition. Many Paul Martin Liberals will be uncomfortable with NDP economics. Others will be offended by working with the BQ as legitimate federalists. A few more might be concerned about their own ridings or falling poll numbers if the coalition goes South. It will not be fun running government during this economic crisis. Whoever leads will take a hit in popular support due to the battered economy. If Conservative numbers go through the roof and the Liberal vote collapses, some politicians might be interested in saving themselves over their party. Right leaning Liberals no longer have a home in the Liberal party. The hardcore bases in all three parties will be upset and will want their demands met by this coalition.
8. Throw courtesy out the window. Question the coalition PM’s legitimacy when attending overseas conferences representing Canada. Ask for meetings with foreign leaders as “Canada’s elected government”. If poll numbers show an inevitable Conservative majority, this becomes easier. In America there is a tradition that you do not criticize the President when overseas. I am not sure if that tradition is upheld in Canada but I would not extend it to this coalition. Constantly portray the government as temporary and unstable.
9. Every question in question period should focus on the theme of a lack of mandate or a lack of legitimacy that this new government has. The new government should be portrayed as a coup and compared to countries where such a thing is common.
10. Pin everything negative about the economy on the coalition. “The coalition took us back into deficit”. “Unemployment has increased since the coalition took power”. “Housing market is declining because of polities put forth by this government”. “Jobs are leaving Canada because of this government”. “National unity is threatened because of this government”. “The dollar is being impacted negatively because of this coalition”. A recession/depression would make it hard for any government to get re-elected. If any economic downturns can be tied to Liberals being extorted by Quebec and socialists; Canadians will be eager to replace it. Liberals had no problem cheering on a recession and pinninig negative headlines to Harper. We should do the same and return the favour.
It is clear that a new coalition would lead to chaos and an even more bitter parliament should it occur. My biggest concern about a coalition is that it would be difficult to defeat. As approval ratings tank, Liberals would have little choice but to give into the demands of the socialists and separatists whose support they would require to maintain power or more importantly avoid an election. If the choice was between the Bloc in cabinet or fighting an election they cannot afford or win; I have absolutely no confidence that Duceppe would not find his way in cabinet.
The next big question is what some Liberals and media have been talking about as well as some Conservative privately. Would Harper be able to stay on as opposition leader and would he even want to? If not would replace him? How? Mysterious websites and emails have popped up for Prentice, Baird, MacKay and Day, but at this point it is unclear if they are disgruntled Conservatives or opposition supporters trying to cause internal questions about Harper’s leadership. Based on Scott Reid’s comments, it is obvious that Liberals want to remove Harper at all costs because he is a threat to Liberal survival. If Harper were to stay on it would lend more legitimacy to the strategy of bringing down the coalition. If someone else took power, it might give us a boost in support but would require time in opposition to select a new leader democratically meaning that this dangerous coalition would run the government for at least six months.
I also expect some left wingers will take issue about pushing strategies that will prevent this parliament from working. I am comfortable with that because I believe the Prime Minister should be elected and that separatists should not be a part of government. If the opposition is so convinced that Harper and Conservatives are bad for the economy and country; they should take that argument to the people and not the Governor General. I also think the GG would be making a huge mistake allowing this coalition to govern without a formal agreement signed by the Bloc Quebecois demonstrating that a Liberal-NDP alliance does in fact have the votes to run government not simply survive confidence votes for a year. How would Canadians benefit from a government that could not pass any legislation unless deemed matters of confidence? Why is the opposition afraid to take this coalition to the electorate?
Is this parliamentary coalition legal? Of course it is under our system. Did Harper cause most of this mess and is much of it his fault? Obviously that cannot be disputed. Having said that, this coup was planned well before the economic statement and Harper's blunder or partisan attitude is not justification to overthrow the election results and install a leader who does not have the confidence of his own party or Canadians. Arguments combining all three opposition percentages of the vote is not democratic. All three leaders campaigned against a coalition, had Canadians known a coalition with the Bloc was on the table a majority would have almost certainly been won by Conservatives and there is no evidence that anyone who voted Liberal, NDP, Green, or Bloc would not have voted Conservative as a second choice or voted for the opposition hoping a coalition would occur. This is a power grab made possible by a huge miscalculation by Stephen Harper, Jim Flaherty and whoever advised this.
Now what is done is done. We will lose a non-confidence vote and this dangerous alliance will take power. All we can do is try and take the issue to the people as soon as possible and trigger an election. While we made a mistake that got us in this mess, I think the Liberal Party has made an even bigger mistake with this action. A majority is ours, problem is how do we take our arguments to the people and cause an election? Coalition members have a right to take government I suppose. They do not have the right to expect our respect, cooperation or support.
-Darryl
