Modeling Journey

How Harper wins this and stays in Power:

It was looking bad for awhile, but yesterday the Prime Minister’s performance in Question Period saved his job. He still has lots of fight left in him, and I think following comments from the PQ and Bloc; it is actually the coalition now on the defensive. If I was advising Harper here is what I would do.

1. Ask the Governor General today to prorogue the parliament. This request has never been turned down since confederation. Harper demonstrated he had the confidence of the House through the Throne Speech.
2. Go on national television with a state of the nation address. Portray the situation as a national emergency for both the economy and unity. Portray the opposition actions as a coup and inconsistent with the results of the previous election. Say you do not want an election but the opposition might cause one by defeating the government before a budget has been proposed. Outline plans for the economy and a stimulus package and apologize for including partisan measures in the economic statement and remind Canadians that they have no been removed by admitting his mistake.
3. Use the time until January 27 to craft a budget that appeals to the base of the Bloc and NDP. Lots of support for the auto and forestry sector. Money for Quebec. Goodies for everyone. At the same time go after any Liberal or opposition MPs who are uncomfortable with this alliance especially from the West and offer them positions on an economic advisory committee or outright membership in the Conservative Party possibly with cabinet posts or major projects to their riding. Try and cause division so the coalition collapses. Run a five million dollar ad campaign between now and January 27 linking the Liberal Party to the separatists and questioning the mandate of Dion. I would also have ads questioning if the NDP can be trusted on the economy in this unprecedented economic climate. I would bring back the talking points about entitlements, sponsorship scandal and Liberals being willing to risk national unity to grab power. I would position the Conservative Party as the only federalist option that can keep both the West and Quebec united in confederation. Every BQ or PQ statement on separation would become a television ad ending with a picture of Dion and asking if this is the government you trust to run Canada.
4. Deliver a budget that would be extremely hard for the opposition parties to vote down. With a little luck the coalition might be finished with the alliance seen as the biggest blunder in Liberal history. If they bring down the government, there is a better chance that GG will call an election after a few months since the last election as opposed to a few weeks after the last election.
5. If there is an election campaign, Harper and Conservatives can be confident we have a winning ballot box question, the finances and the motivated volunteers to hammer the entire opposition who I would portray as a single party that wants to govern as a separatist coalition.

Scott Reid is going to look like an idiot very soon. He went after Harper with all he had and the opposition parties made a huge strategic blunder and took his advise. All credibility has now been lost to their individual brands over this. A few short days ago it looked like the Conservatives would have power stolen from them and Dion would become Prime Minister. I personally think Harper’s job is now safe rather this coalition forms or not. Historically, this is going to be seen as the biggest mistake the Liberal Party has made in the history of their party. I predict the next election will be the last time you see 5 parties in Canadian democracy. As soon as the next election is called, Conservatives will win a majority while the left will be forced to unite formally under one banner to survive. Dion damaged his party with the carbon tax and a coalition with the Greens. He has now dealt it the final blow by demonstrating to Canadians that Liberals are so unprincipled that they will risk the unity of the country for a cheap few months in power. If I was a Liberal I would remove Dion at all costs to avoid any further damage – although at this point it is well past too late. If I wanted to be Liberal leader, I would position myself immediately against this coalition because I guarantee in a couple of months that person is going to look like a genius. Liberals rolled the dice and have lost. As Conservatives, we should stand firmly behind our leader rather this undemocratic coalition takes power or not. We should not do the opposition’s dirty work by removing a leader who was elected by party members, brought together a united right and was twice elected by Canadians. In the most recent election he received an increased mandate. They want to take him out because they fear him. After Question Period yesterday, I am convinced that there is no way Dion will be able to hold his own against an opposition slaughter that would take place if he actually stole the Prime Ministers office. Liberals who still stand for something should stop this from becoming a trainwreck at all costs.

Update: Harper to address the nation tonight at 7pm Eastern Time.

-Darryl