Modeling Journey

Harper is desperately trying to create a sense of crisis so that the Governor General will be stampeded in January, when the Tory government is voted out in a confidence vote, to depart from accepted convention of looking for an alternative government and turning to the LPC-NDP Coalition, and to call an election instead.

Harper realizes that the only way he can remain in power is if he manages to subvert our parliamentary conventions and run a fear mongering election, demonizing the Bloc and painting the LPC-NDP Coalition as traitors for putting into writing an agreement by the Bloc to support the Coalition for 18 months.

If the GG does decide to call a new election early in the new year, despite the country having recently gone to the polls, then the Coalition will nevertheless become the government.

How?

Because there is an irresistible drive by the three opposition parties to replace the Harper government with a progressive centre government, based on the principles captured in the Accord. These Accord principles will still be as valid come the new year as they are today.

Therefore the three parties will, if an election is indeed called, be open to an electoral accord which will guarantee that the three parties return the same number of MPs to Parliament as they now have, and so once again have a majority of votes in the House.

Even if the Tories have the most MPs after that election of all four parties, and form a government, it will be voted down in yet another confidence vote, and the Governor General will then definitely call on the LPC-NDP Coalition for form the next government and proceed to its own vote of confidence, which it will of course win.

In fact, it is highly probable that the three opposition parties will in fact increase their number of seats in the House, at the expense of the Tories.

Why? Because the irresistible logic of the power equation now created by the formation of this LPC-NDP Coalition requires that the three opposition parties agree before the next election not to oppose each other in all the ridings which currently have an MP. That leaves the existing MP facing only one major foe each (the Tory candidate).

And the next step is also logically persuasive: that the three opposition parties agree that in all other ridings now held by the Tories, they will run only one candidate, and coalesce behind that candidate.

Given that the Tories have won many seats only by a small percentage of the votes, and only because of split votes amongst the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc, and that the Tories received a million votes less than the opposition parties in the 2008 election, the Tories will definitely lose many seats and end up perhaps with fewer than one hundred seats in total.

It is conceivable that the Liberals will end up with the majority of total seats in such a new House.

Harper’s demise is inevitable.