Updating the Prime Minister on Rob Ford and 416

Had an opportunity to speak to the Prime Minister in Ajax about Rob Ford's campaign and also the opportunity for Conservatives to finally break into the 416 ridings of Toronto. While he cannot officially endorse a candidate he was happy with the progress made for Conservatives in the city.

Stephen Harper YouTube Interview

I give Stephen Harper full credit for reaching out to voters via Social Media. I also respect that he answered the questions posed to him directly.
-Darryl

Stephen Harper Christmas Greetings

Did “Cheque Republic” campaign backfire on federal Liberals?

Today I came across a website affiliated with the federal Liberals at http://www.chequerepublic.ca

I haven’t seen the website before today, but it is loaded with Conservative MPs posing with cheques for their ridings complete with Conservative logos and personal signatures from the local MP. Obviously I see what the scandal is. Conservatives are handing out taxpayer money as if it comes from the party and not Canadians. Fair enough.

Under “Get the Facts” some of the messages

- “Last month, MP Gerard Kennedy led a Liberal investigation that found a disproportionate share of infrastructure stimulus funding was going to Conservative ridings.”

- “Investigative journalists at those newspapers found that nationwide 57 percent of all projects with more than $1-million in federal funding went to Conservative ridings. The investigation also found that Tory ridings landed 66 per cent of all projects so far announced under the Harper government’s Recreation Infrastructure Canada program (RinC). The investigation concludes that if you live in a Conservative riding, you’re receiving 23 percent more infrastructure stimulus funding than you would if project funding was distributed equally among all Canadian ridings.”

An entry in the Blog section of the website

- “Harper slush fund favours Conservative Northern Ontario ridings”

There is also an opportunity to cut a cheque to your friends from Stephen Harper and have it emailed to them (see photo above) explaining the issue to others.

I really do not know if Canada’s Economic Stimulus Package has been handed out on partisan grounds disproportionately to Conservative ridings. I really do not like pork barrel politics and free spending for partisan purposes. I do not know if these allegations are true. But let us assume for a second that these allegations are true. What does it mean for voters? Currently my riding is blue in Newmarket-Aurora. Assuming what the Liberals are saying is true, what incentive would I have to vote for the opposition so that Newmarket gets short changed like the other opposition held ridings as Liberals claim? By drawing so much attention to this “Cheque Republic” issue, are Liberals not encouraging opposition ridings to vote Conservative in order to get some pork for themselves? Could this partially explain rising poll numbers and the recent by-election results? Do Liberals really think Conservative held ridings are going to vote Liberal because their riding received an unfair proportion of stimulus money? From the Liberal point of view does it really benefit them to highlight this issue? Looking at current poll numbers and pundits calling for a Conservative majority in recent days, one has to wonder if areas like Atlantic Canada, Toronto, Northern Ontario and Montreal will be tempted to get on board the gravy train as well following the next election. If these allegations are true I will not try and justify them. Having said that, Liberals really need to think hard about if this campaign helps them politically or not. Perhaps it is something to think about when trying to explain the upset in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup.

Personally I am not sure if these allegations are true or not, but I am sure that the Cheque Republic backfired and Monday night was evidence of that. Perhaps the Liberal war room should go back to the drawing board and find something else to attack the Conservative government on.

25 ridings the Conservatives should target for a Majority

After last night's by-election, the Conservatives now hold 145 seats in the House of Commons. Assuming that the Conservatives could hold all of them (and that is a big assumption), here is 20 ridings the Conservatives should target to win a majority. Right now 10 more would be required to win that majority government. Current polls have shown Tory support ranging from 37-41%. The percentage is important, but ultimately in Canadian politics it comes down to seats. These targeted seats assume no breakthrough in Toronto and Montreal. 17 of these seats are currently held by Liberals, 6 by the NDP, 1 by the Bloc and 1 is an independent. Obviously there are a lot of close ridings the Conservatives won as well.

If current polls hold and Conservative MPs ensure re-election, 10 out of 25 of these ridings would be a majority government. In 1984, Brian Mulroney won 211 seats and over 50% of the vote. Stephen Harper currently holds 145 seats our of 308.

North

1. Yukon

Conservative Darrell Pasloski lost by less than 2000 votes in the last election while turnout increased and the Liberal vote decreased. The seat is currently held by Liberal Larry Bagnell. If former Yukon Party Cabinet Minister Brad Cathers runs for the Tories, the race might be close. Harper has made a big push in the North since winning government. Hopefully some of that Palin magic in Alaska crosses the border and energizes Conservatives in Yukon as well.

2. Western Arctic

Currently held by NDP Dennis Bevington, this riding is very winnable for the Conservatives especially with Harper's focus on the North. Last time Bevington got 5669 votes compared to Conservative Brendan Bell's 5146. Liberals were a distant third with 1858 votes. This time former Premier Joe Handley is running for the Liberals potentially opening up a strong three way race.

BC

3. Burnaby - Douglas

Currently held by NDP Bill Siksay, in 2008 this election was close with the NDP getting 37.94% of the vote compared to the CPC 36.25% Who is able to take the more of the Liberal 19.4% could make the difference in this riding. Ronald Leung ran for the Conservatives in 2008.

4. Vancouver South

Former NDP Premier and Liberal Star candidate Ujjal Dosanjh only defeated the Conservatives by 22 votes in the last election. Wai Young represented the Conservatives in 2008.

5. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

Keith Martin's riding. Last time he won by 68 votes against Conservative Troy DeSouza. Would love to see Martin cross the floor and get back in the fold. Otherwise this will likely be a close race again. Keith Martin was a former Reform/Canadian Alliance MP between 1993-2003 and is personally popular in his riding.

Alberta

6. Edmonton-Strathcona

NDP Linda Duncan upset Rahim Jaffer in the last election breaking up the Conservative Alberta sweep. Ryan Hastman will try and take it back in the next election. In 2008 the NDP took 42.5% of the vote compared to the Conservative 41.6%. Getting this riding back is probably priority one for the Conservatives.

Saskatchewan

7. Wascana

Ralph Goodale defeated Conservative Michelle Hunter by less than 5000 votes. Still a long shot, but this is the final red seat in the province. Goodale is winning this riding on personal popularity despite his party affiliation.

Manitoba:

8. Elmwood - Transcona

Winnipeg Jets legend Thomas Steen lost this riding by less than 2000 votes. NDP Jim Maloway is the incumbent here. Would love to see Steen take another shot at the goal.

9. Winnipeg South Centre

Conservatives held their convention in Winnipeg recently. Anita Neville won last time by less than 2000 votes and is the final Liberal in Manitoba. Trevor Kennerd ran for the Conservatives last time.

Ontario:

10. Ajax-Pickering:

Conservative star candidate Chris Alexander will face off against Mark Holland in the GTA. Will that be enough to make up the 3000 vote difference? This could be a huge win for the Conservatives in Ontario on the border of Toronto 416.

11. Brampton Springdale

Rudy Dhalla held this riding by just over 700 votes in 2008. She is a big target I am sure and Parm Gill has been working this riding like crazy. This riding is highly likely to go blue in the next election.

12: Brampton West

While everyone has been paying attention to Ruby Dhalla in Brampton Springdale, quietly Kyle Seeback was about 500 votes from Liberal MP Andrew Kania. This is probably even more likely to go blue than Brampton Springdale.

13. Richmond Hill

Conservatives made some big gains in the last election in York Region picking up Newmarket-Aurora, Oakridges-Markham and Thornhill. At one time this riding was represented provincially by Frank Klees and in 2008 the race was a lot closer with Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert fighting to keep his seat. A star candidate could easily close the 5000 vote margin here if current polls hold steady.

14. Mississauga South

Liberal MP Paul Szabo won by about 2000 votes in this GTA riding. Mississauga will be very competitive with the right Conservative candidates in the next election.

15. Welland

A rare tight three way battle where in the last election the NDP took 33% of the vote, Conservatives 32% and the Liberals 28%. NDP MPP Peter Kormos holds the seat provincially and NDP MP Malcolm Allenis the current incumbent.

16. Kingston and the Islands

If speaker Peter Milliken ever retired, this riding would go blue and is surrounded by blue. Like Wascana in Saskatchewan, Milliken is holding this riding on personal popularity.

17. Guelph
Liberal MP Frank Valeriote had 18,977 votes, CPC candidate Gloria Kovach won 17, 185 votes and Green candidate Mike Nagy finished third with 12,456 votes. The Green vote is the wildcard here.

18. Nipissing - Timiskaming

Northern Ontario should have strong potential for the Conservatives but right now it is largely dominated by the NDP. In Nipissing - Timiskaming Anthony Rota beat Conservative Joe Sinicrope by just over 5000 votes. In 2008 we saw an upset in Kenora. Is Nipissing - Timiskaming next? I believe Northern Ontario would be a good place to grow the Conservative base and build on our organizational strength. There is great potential for competitive three way races if time and resources are dedicated to the cause.

New Brunswick:

19. Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe

Current Liberal MP Brian Murphy beat Conservative Daniel Allain by just over 1000 votes. Closest riding in New Brunswick for the Conservatives to pick up.

Prince Edward Island:

20. Malpeque

1000 votes separated the Liberals and Conservatives last time. Wayne Easter would be a big target for Conservatives. Can Mike Duffy make the difference here? In 2008 Conservatives broke into PEI in the Egmont riding.

Newfoundland

21. Avalon 22. St. John's East 23. St. John's South-Mount Pearl

All three of these ridings were held by the Conservative Party and lost in the 2008 election. Is Danny Williams still a factor? Will Newfoundland want to be shut out of the federal government? St. John's South-Mount Pearl is the best chance. Turnout in the last election was low in Newfoundland despite the ABC campaign.

Quebec

24. Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier

Would love to see independent MP Andre Arthur formally join the Conservative caucus. He generally votes with the party and in the last election Conservatives did not run a candidate against him. He is in a close race and his personality would be an asset to the Conservative cause in Quebec. Arthur is a libertarian.

25. Louis-Hébert

Conservative MP Luc Harvey dropped the seat to current Bloc MP Pascal-Pierre Paillé. Could the Conservatives win this one back?

By-election Analysis

Last night four by-elections took place in BC, Quebec and Nova Scotia. In general it is never a good idea to get too excited about by-election results, nonetheless they do mean something and can have large implications.

In March of 2009 in the riding of Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, John Tory was upset by Rick Johnson in a by-election in the province of Ontario. Tory had just come off of a strong convention, was PC Party leader and ran in a riding that was considered safe for the blue side following Laurie Scott's decision to step down to allow the leader a seat in the Legislature. Tory was defeated and resigned as leader the next day. Today Tim Hudak is party leader and a recent poll has his party leading in the Province of Ontario.

Federally in 2008 Rob Clarke won in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River after local Liberals found themselves in a feud with David Orchard during the nomination process. In 2007 Thomas Mulcair pulled off an upset in Outremont and Denis Lebel won in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean. All three still hold their seats today. Since the beginning of the 38th parliament in 2004, there have been ten by-elections federally. Only 3 or 30% changed party representation heading into last night. All MPs elected in by-elections since 2000 remain in the House of Commons today except Raymond Gravel a former Bloc MP. Some pundits think of by-elections as flash in the pan protest votes however vidence since 2004 shows that not to be the case. It is quite possible that all incumbents elected last night will hold their seats in the next general election whenever it occurs.

After last night there is spin coming from all sides but the results speak for themselves. The Conservatives picked up two seats and are now ten shy of a majority. The Bloc lost a seat and held another. The NDP held a seat in BC. The Liberals were not even in the game in any of these by-elections. Current standings have the Conservatives with 145 seats, Liberals 77, NDP 37 and Bloc 48. Andre Arthur is an independent but the Conservatives did not run a candidate against him in the 2008 election and he generally votes with the Conservatives as a self described libertarian. Following these by-elections only the Conservatives have gained seats and only the Bloc has lost a seat since the last general election. The Liberals and the NDP remain status quo.

In each of the ridings there was also some interesting messages. While results in New Westminster—Coquitlam, Hochelaga and Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley were widely expected, the upset in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup is notable.
The fact the Liberals were not contenders in any of the by-elections and showed worse than Dion in three of the ridings has to be of concern to Liberal strategists. Clearly there is not much momentum for Ignatieff in BC despite the Liberal convention in Vancouver. The same can be said about Quebec where there was talk of big Liberal breakthroughs a few months ago. In Atlantic Canada - usually a considered a Liberal stronghold, the NDP finished second this time. The NDP also finished second in Montreal repeatng some of that Outremont magic. There is no way to spin that as positive for Liberals and there is a reason why Ignatieff, Kinsella and Liblogs have been silent today about these results. The NDP on the other hand have good reason to celebrate their results last night but let's not go to far. Even if they steal a few seats away from the Liberals in the next election, how satisified will the left be with a Conservative majority? Ten ridings is not that big of a hurdle now.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup had not seen Conservative representation since 1993 when PC MP André Plourde was defeated by Paul Crête who resigned to run in the provincial electon only to be defeated by Charest Liberal Jean D'Amour in that contest. Prior to that former ADQ leader Mario Dumont represented the riding from 1994 until March of 2009. Personally I always wanted Dumont to run for the federal Conservatives, but yesterday a new star was found in former La Pocatière mayor Bernard Généreux who pulled off the upset. Pundits and polls dismissed the Conservatives in Quebec. The coalition, ADQ demise, culture cuts, relations with Charest, gun registry and economy all proved theories false that the Conservative support had NOT evaporated in the province. This type of rural Quebec riding is exactly the type of riding Tories need to target in order to build the coalition required for a majority. Harper now at least has hope for future Quebec gains. Despite writing Harper off, the BQ once again find themselves in a fight with the Conservatives in rural Quebec and Quebec City while at the same time they are fighting a different battle with the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal area of Quebec.

In the 2008 election in Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Bill Casey deserved to be re-elected for standing up for constituents despite being expelled from the Conservative caucus. I like MPs with courage and an independent streak. Having said that, it is great news that Conservative Rob Armstrong easily won the riding following Casey's decision to retire as an MP after former Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald announced that Casey would be the senior representative for the Department of Intergovernmental Affairs in Ottawa for the province. In New Westminster—Coquitlam Conservatives finished a strong second to a strong NDP candidate in Fin Donnelly replacing Dawn Black. The HST and salmon issue proved to be winners in BC allowing the NDP to hold the seat. Even in the Montreal area riding of Hochelaga there was some positive news for Harper. Conservatives gained their share of the vote by 1%. The Liberal vote dropped 6% while the NDP increased 5% allowing them to finish second. There was less than 1000 votes difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. There was less than 2000 votes difference between the NDP and Conservatives. To be fair all three have a long way to go in order to defeat the Bloc who carried 51.2% of total votes. With that said, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Conservative and Liberal support in a riding close to the Montreal Liberal fortress.

Overall it was a good night for Conservatives and the NDP. A bad day for the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals. Bottom line is that the Conservatives are now two seats closer to that majority government. Liberals have clearly not gained any momentum with Ignatieff from where they were under Dion. I have seen a lot of Liberal spin that these by-elections do not matter and no one expected them to win. That may be true but if Dalton McGuinty would have taken that attitude in a recent by-election perhaps John Tory would still be leader and in Queen's Park grilling his government on eHealth today. At some point if Liberals want to win government, you have to gain seats in ridings where you cannot see the CN Tower. Right now the Liberal Party does not look very strong outside of the most urban ridings in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. On the flip side a Conservative majority is so close you can taste it.

Congratulations to Scott Armstrong, Bernard Généreux , Daniel Paillé and Fit Donnelly for their victories last night!

Photo of the Day: Macleans

I really like this family photo. As a Beatles fan it is good to see! To read an interview conducted by MacLeans about Stephen Harper's musical talents click here.
-Darryl

Stephen Harper sings Beatles song with Yo Yo Ma

A very respectable version of "With a Little Help from My Friends" by the Beatles. Personally I like it when Harper shows his true personality.
-Darryl

Photos from Prime Minister Harper BBQ in Oakridges-Markham last night

Liberal Party of Canada Announces Four New Women Candidates in Ontario

OTTAWA - Ontario campaign co-Chairs Brenda Kurczak, Jeff Kehoe and Chris Koddermann announced today the nominations of four exceptional women candidates to run for the Liberal Party of Canada in the next federal election: Christine Innes (Trinity-Spadina), Deborah Gillis (Halton), Margaret Black (Newmarket-Aurora) and Kimberley Love (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound).

“These incredible women boast a proud personal history of accomplishment and service to their community,” said Ms. Kurczak. “We look forward to their contributions to the political process in our province and our country.”

“The nomination of these four exceptional candidates brings the Ontario campaign four big steps closer to being ready for the next election,” said Mr. Koddermann. “Their unique skill-sets and perspectives are a testament to the importance of female participation in Canadian politics.”

"The talent and experience of these four women represent the tremendous strength of the future Liberal government," said Mr. Kehoe. “These candidates are further proof of the talent our Party is attracting under the Leadership of Michael Ignatieff.”

-----

Background

Christine Innes has been nominated to run in the riding of Trinity-Spadina. A Toronto-based lawyer and a dedicated community activist, Ms. Innes brings a depth of experience both inside and outside government. Early in her career she worked on Parliament Hill for the Hon. Jim Peterson and at Queen’s Park for the Hon. Greg Sorbara. Following her graduation from Osgoode Hall Law School, she became a litigator with the well-known Toronto firm Fraser Milner Casgrain. She currently serves as a senior advisor to Ontario’s Minister of Aboriginal Affairs. Ms. Innes balances her family and professional life with numerous community pursuits, including fundraising for the Alexandra Park Community Centre, Parent’s Association Executive, her community church and as founder and Co-Chair of the Bloor-Borden Market which brings local farmers and their produce to the inner city.

Deborah Gillis has been appointed to run in the riding of Halton by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Ms. Gillis has advanced women’s causes through both her professional and community pursuits. As Vice President, North America for Catalyst, she has worked globally to promote the advancement of women in business. A breast cancer survivor, Ms. Gillis is a patient representative on the Cancer Quality Council of Ontario and has raised thousands of dollars for breast cancer research through her participation in the Weekend to End Breast Cancer. Her distinguished career includes work for the Governments of Ontario and Nova Scotia, as well as PricewaterhouseCoopers and Grant Thornton.

Margaret Black has been acclaimed as the candidate for the Liberal nomination in Newmarket Aurora and will be nominated on August 12. Ms. Black has served her community for five terms as Mayor of King Township and Councillor for the Regional Municipality of York. A lawyer by profession, her extensive experience includes a term as Chair of the York Region Police Services Board and service on the boards of the Southlake Regional Health Centre, Oak Ridges Moraine Land Trust, Municipal Property Assessment Corporation, and the Greater Toronto Agricultural Action Board. Ms. Black has been recognized for her distinguished political career as a recipient of the Queen’s Jubilee Award and the Rural Female Politician Award.

Kimberley Love has been nominated to run in the riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. A marketing and communications consultant and lecturer at Wilfrid Laurier University, Ms. Love has deep roots in Grey County and is passionate about traditional Liberal values as well as agricultural issues. Having lived in both rural and urban Canada, she brings a unique perspective which makes her ideally suited to represent the people of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

Video: Harper on Fox News

I believe this aired in the USA this past weekend
-Darryl

Pros and Cons from Iggy's Perspective of forcing an election

Apparently today or Monday, Michael Ignatieff is going to tell Canadians if he plans to force an election on one of the opposition days or if he will abstain allowing the government to survive through the summer at least. There has been a lot of speculation on the odds of an election ranging from no chance to a 85% chance of Canadians hitting the polls this summer. Let us first look at the facts.

1, Canadians last went to the polls late in 2008. The current minority parliament has not yet lasted a year.
2, Since the time of Dion’s leadership, Conservatives have largely governed with the support of the Liberals on confidence votes.
3, A coalition was formed in December and January of this year. It was rejected by Canadians and as a result Ignatieff supported the budget and killed the coalition.
4, Since the coalition, several recent polls consistently indicate Liberal support ahead of the Conservatives with Liberal fortunes improving in the 905, Quebec and BC.
5, The NDP and Bloc are on record as recently as yesterday suggesting they will not support the government.
6, The NDP would likely lose seats to the Liberals in the event an election took place in the near future.
7, The BQ might lose seats around Montreal but are likely to pick up seats around Quebec City. Several Bloc members qualify for full pensions starting in July.
8, It appears Stephen Harper will not back down on EI due to the already large deficit
9, Based on his voting record and statements; there are not many policy differences between Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff at this point in time.
10, Canadians do not want an election and could get angry if politicians spend another 600 million on the fourth election in five years only to get another minority during these economic times.

Based on those facts, here are some reasons Ignatieff might avoid an election:

-He will look opportunistic should he decide to go to the polls. He voted for the budget, the Afghanistan extension, Harper’s justice policies and has supported the Harper Conservatives on virtually all confidence votes since he was elected leader. His only policy difference right now with the Conservatives is this EI policy proposal that has not caught on with Canadians. During this recession, Canadians will want to see an alternative vision to what the current government has implemented. EI is not an election winner and no platform or ideas have come out at this point in public. Kelowna Accord, national childcare and other recycled Liberal policies are not affordable unless he either raises taxes or cuts spending elsewhere. If his argument is that the stimulus isn’t being spent fast enough, he will have to explain how an election will speed it up. If he complains about the size of the deficit, he will have to tell Canadians what programs he will cut or what taxes he will raise in order to reduce it. At this point, he lacks a defining issue that would resonate with Canadians on the election trail. He lacks a policy Canadians are excited about. He lacks a scandal that Canadians are angry about. At this point all he has is a few polls in his favour and a lot of voters hurting because of the recession. While he leads in the polls, a win is not a slam dunk for him right now.

-Although he has a lead in several polls, the lead is not as large as some would expect given the economic crisis that would be tough on any incumbent government. Any backlash for calling an unnecessary election or a successful negative campaign by the Conservative Party could result in him losing the next election. If that happens will his leadership be safe?

- Liberals are just starting to nominate candidates now and have so far yet to recruit any new blood. A few potential stars have been rumoured such as Louise Arbour, Phil Fontaine and David Dodge but to my knowledge none of these people are officially confirmed as running for the Liberals in the next nomination. Some incumbents did not meet the requirements and will now face a nomination race. Others could potentially retire. If the plug is pulled on June 19, do Liberals have enough time to get the quality candidates in place? Obviously money, technology, volunteers and platform are other areas where it is unclear if Liberals are ready to fight an election.

- If Ignatieff waits, do his chances of victory or majority improve? Economy while showing signs of recovery could still not have hit rock bottom. Some have predicted the economy will recover by the end of the year. Others predict it will take much longer. If Ignatieff pulls the plug now, does he risk missing a majority that could be attained should he wait until the fall or spring?

- The summer presents a good opportunity for Iggy to work the BBQ circuit and become better known to Canadians. While universally considered superior to Dion; it is not exactly Iggymania at this stage. It is also unknown how damaging the last round of Conservative attacks were and how damaging future attacks might be.


Based on the same facts, here are some reasons he might call an election now or at least vote non-confidence:

- When Stephane Dion was leader, he found himself in a nasty trap that made him look weak thanks to the NDP and the Bloc. The reason for that trap was Dion wanted to avoid an election more than any of his opponents. As a result he abstained and propped up Harper leading to Rick Mercer and others making a mockery of him as leader. Dion never was able to shake the image and it cost him in the last election. Michael Ignatieff wants to avoid this happening to him, but so far he has been unsuccessful. When the coalition was rejected by Canadians and Conservatives were polling at over 50%, Ignatieff was appointed leader and had to support the budget in order to avoid an election and distance himself form the coalition. While he could claim he forced some concessions, the NDP/Bloc accused him of forming a “coalition” with Harper. Today Iggy is stronger than Dion ever was, but as I mentioned in point one of why he may not call an election; he has yet to differentiate himself or paint an alternative vision to Harper and the Conservative Party. The NDP and Bloc have again attempted to lay the same trap by coming out early and saying they will oppose the government on upcoming confidence votes. Iggy may want to call their bluff to break this cycle of having to abstain or prop up the government to avoid an election. The fact of the matter is the NDP would have their seats reduced if an election were called anytime soon and Layton’s leadership could be threatened. 16 Bloc members could find themselves gambling with their pensions if an election takes place before July. If Ignatieff comes out today or Monday and says he is voting non-confidence; it is quite possible that Layton would back down and pay a price with his credibility. If not, an election might be a better alternative for Liberals than looking weak. Certainly they have more incentive to hit the polls than the NDP and have no reason to back down as they have in the past. Announcing that Liberals will no longer support the government could break this pattern even if there is no election.

- The polls are currently showing that the Liberals would win if an election took place right now. The NDP and Bloc have said they will vote non-confidence. This might be Iggy’s best and only chance to win. The economy is bad right now but is showing signs of recovery. A budget could later be turned into a campaign document and perhaps appease the Conservative base currently upset about spending, bailouts and deficits. Harper would also have the opportunity to be Prime Minister during the Vancouver Olympics perhaps spiking his popularity. If the economy recovers, Conservatives will get credit. Is there a risk of backlash? Yes. Do Liberals have a platform? No. Are Liberals truly ready for an election? Perhaps not as ready as they would be in the fall or spring. Despite this, these opportunities do not come everyday. Passing on this opportunity may come back to bite him later.

- Conservatives have gained some baggage. The budget is a record in Canadian history. Spending has increased. The auto bailout is not popular. Unemployment is up. There is not money to promise much or to load pork into ridings. Conservatives are in freefall in Quebec. The situation in Southern Ontario is not looking very good. There is Lisa Raitt and a few other Ottawa scandals. There is some concern a lot of Conservative voters could stay home in the next election. Harper’s positives are equal to Ignatieff but his negatives are much higher. It is tough to convince regular Canadians that the government is on the right track when economic times are so tough. All of these issues may not be there six months from now.

- Canadians will be angry about an election being called, but those Canadians are more likely to stay home altogether than vote Conservative to send a message to Ignatieff for calling the election. Canadians did not want an election in 2004, 2006 and 2008 either.

- Liberals do not like being in opposition. It is a party motivated more by power than policy. It will be too tempting to avoid an election when they are up in the polls and can taste government and all the perks that come with it.

Chances of an election:

I would not be surprised if Canadians vote in July and I would not be surprised if we don’t. Here is what each leader has to consider.

Stephen Harper – an election is largely out of his hands. He could roll the dice and back down on EI and implement the Liberal proposal. Doing so might buy him time but it would further alienate the base.

Michael Ignatieff – will put a non-confidence motion forward so at worst he does not look weak and sends a message to the NDP/Bloc or at best causes an election he believes he can win. Only way he backs down is if internally the party is not ready for an election or if he lacks confidence in his chances for victory. I suppose he could back down and say “Canadians do not want an election” but ultimately that would mean supporting Harper again. This hurts his chances in the fall or later for the same reasons that are creating obstacles right now.

Jack Layton – has constantly accused the Liberals of supporting Harper and being absent in their role as official opposition. Claims Iggy has just recently championed EI, while the NDP has been fighting this battle for years. He would love to vote against Harper, but if he thinks Liberals will too and can’t be sure of Duceppe’s plan; next to the Conservatives, he probably has the most to lose if an election happens this summer. The ultimate flip flop might cost him his credibility but it is better than his job along with half his caucus. Iggy putting forward a confidence motion on EI would put the NDP into an impossible position of sacrificing their credibility vs. getting destroyed in an election campaign. Ultimately over the long term the results would be the same. I believe Layton is the most likely to back down.

Gilles Duceppe – some members may not want to lose their pension, but there isn’t much to gain or lose if the Bloc goes into an election. Seats they lose to the Liberals they would likely make up by winning seats from the Conservatives. There is no challenger to Duceppe at this point. Some Bloc members might abstain to protect their pensions and to avoid an inconvenience of a summer election. Unlike the NDP however, they have much less reason to fear an election.

Overall, I put the odds of an election at 75% but would not be too surprised if at the end of the day a summer election is avoided. What is clear is that every confidence vote from now on will be a risk that the government falls.

Thanks for reading…

Darryl

Copy of HST Letter to Jim Flaherty that all Candidates signed

At the debates in Markham on June 4, Frank Klees drafted a letter to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty asking him to delay the transfer of 4.3 billion for the implementation of the HST until after the next provincial election. All candidates eventually signed this letter and it has now been forwarded to the federal Finance Minister and every Conservative MP. An example of Frank taking a leadership role as the PC Party tries to fight this new McGuinty tax grab. Click on the photo of the letter above to enlarge. The video below explains the context of the letter from the Markham debates.
-Darryl

Libertarian Party of Canada attack ad against the Conservatives

Update: Additional videos added

Previously I posted the attack ads the Libertarian Party of Canada ran against Michael Ignatieff. Here is one they have now posted on YouTube about the Conservative Party.
-Darryl









...and one more on the Liberal convention I missed



What is a Libertarian

Liberal Party Attack Ad from 2006

I really like the accusation that Stephen Harper would be willing to work with the Bloc or sending Canadian troops to Iraq. This ad proves Liberals are no strangers to going negative and the accusations are interesting given Michael Ignatieff's current leadership of the Liberal Party. They have also had their attack ads going on for months.
-Darryl

Libertarian Party of Canada runs negative ad against Michael Ignatieff

It looks like the Libertarian Party of Canada is using YouTube to their advantage. They ran a previous ads earlier this year as well. Timing of these ads is very interesting.









Isn't it time for a new voice in Ottawa?
Join the Libertarian Party of Canada
http://libertarian.ca

Perhaps a response to "The Grit Girl"?

Comes from the YouTube channel "NoTaxHikes". Not sure who is responsible for it.
-Darryl

Update: New one on "Toryboy1" YouTube channel:



"NoTaxHike" YouTube Channel



Others:

3 New Conservative Ads

New website for Iggy as well.
-Darryl

"His Country"



"Arrogance"



"Economy"

Finally the Conservatives launch attack ads against Ignatieff

A very good ad in my opinion
-Darryl

Harper Easter Greeting