Modeling Journey

By-election Analysis

Last night four by-elections took place in BC, Quebec and Nova Scotia. In general it is never a good idea to get too excited about by-election results, nonetheless they do mean something and can have large implications.

In March of 2009 in the riding of Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, John Tory was upset by Rick Johnson in a by-election in the province of Ontario. Tory had just come off of a strong convention, was PC Party leader and ran in a riding that was considered safe for the blue side following Laurie Scott's decision to step down to allow the leader a seat in the Legislature. Tory was defeated and resigned as leader the next day. Today Tim Hudak is party leader and a recent poll has his party leading in the Province of Ontario.

Federally in 2008 Rob Clarke won in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River after local Liberals found themselves in a feud with David Orchard during the nomination process. In 2007 Thomas Mulcair pulled off an upset in Outremont and Denis Lebel won in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean. All three still hold their seats today. Since the beginning of the 38th parliament in 2004, there have been ten by-elections federally. Only 3 or 30% changed party representation heading into last night. All MPs elected in by-elections since 2000 remain in the House of Commons today except Raymond Gravel a former Bloc MP. Some pundits think of by-elections as flash in the pan protest votes however vidence since 2004 shows that not to be the case. It is quite possible that all incumbents elected last night will hold their seats in the next general election whenever it occurs.

After last night there is spin coming from all sides but the results speak for themselves. The Conservatives picked up two seats and are now ten shy of a majority. The Bloc lost a seat and held another. The NDP held a seat in BC. The Liberals were not even in the game in any of these by-elections. Current standings have the Conservatives with 145 seats, Liberals 77, NDP 37 and Bloc 48. Andre Arthur is an independent but the Conservatives did not run a candidate against him in the 2008 election and he generally votes with the Conservatives as a self described libertarian. Following these by-elections only the Conservatives have gained seats and only the Bloc has lost a seat since the last general election. The Liberals and the NDP remain status quo.

In each of the ridings there was also some interesting messages. While results in New Westminster—Coquitlam, Hochelaga and Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley were widely expected, the upset in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup is notable.
The fact the Liberals were not contenders in any of the by-elections and showed worse than Dion in three of the ridings has to be of concern to Liberal strategists. Clearly there is not much momentum for Ignatieff in BC despite the Liberal convention in Vancouver. The same can be said about Quebec where there was talk of big Liberal breakthroughs a few months ago. In Atlantic Canada - usually a considered a Liberal stronghold, the NDP finished second this time. The NDP also finished second in Montreal repeatng some of that Outremont magic. There is no way to spin that as positive for Liberals and there is a reason why Ignatieff, Kinsella and Liblogs have been silent today about these results. The NDP on the other hand have good reason to celebrate their results last night but let's not go to far. Even if they steal a few seats away from the Liberals in the next election, how satisified will the left be with a Conservative majority? Ten ridings is not that big of a hurdle now.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup had not seen Conservative representation since 1993 when PC MP André Plourde was defeated by Paul Crête who resigned to run in the provincial electon only to be defeated by Charest Liberal Jean D'Amour in that contest. Prior to that former ADQ leader Mario Dumont represented the riding from 1994 until March of 2009. Personally I always wanted Dumont to run for the federal Conservatives, but yesterday a new star was found in former La Pocatière mayor Bernard Généreux who pulled off the upset. Pundits and polls dismissed the Conservatives in Quebec. The coalition, ADQ demise, culture cuts, relations with Charest, gun registry and economy all proved theories false that the Conservative support had NOT evaporated in the province. This type of rural Quebec riding is exactly the type of riding Tories need to target in order to build the coalition required for a majority. Harper now at least has hope for future Quebec gains. Despite writing Harper off, the BQ once again find themselves in a fight with the Conservatives in rural Quebec and Quebec City while at the same time they are fighting a different battle with the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal area of Quebec.

In the 2008 election in Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Bill Casey deserved to be re-elected for standing up for constituents despite being expelled from the Conservative caucus. I like MPs with courage and an independent streak. Having said that, it is great news that Conservative Rob Armstrong easily won the riding following Casey's decision to retire as an MP after former Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald announced that Casey would be the senior representative for the Department of Intergovernmental Affairs in Ottawa for the province. In New Westminster—Coquitlam Conservatives finished a strong second to a strong NDP candidate in Fin Donnelly replacing Dawn Black. The HST and salmon issue proved to be winners in BC allowing the NDP to hold the seat. Even in the Montreal area riding of Hochelaga there was some positive news for Harper. Conservatives gained their share of the vote by 1%. The Liberal vote dropped 6% while the NDP increased 5% allowing them to finish second. There was less than 1000 votes difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. There was less than 2000 votes difference between the NDP and Conservatives. To be fair all three have a long way to go in order to defeat the Bloc who carried 51.2% of total votes. With that said, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Conservative and Liberal support in a riding close to the Montreal Liberal fortress.

Overall it was a good night for Conservatives and the NDP. A bad day for the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals. Bottom line is that the Conservatives are now two seats closer to that majority government. Liberals have clearly not gained any momentum with Ignatieff from where they were under Dion. I have seen a lot of Liberal spin that these by-elections do not matter and no one expected them to win. That may be true but if Dalton McGuinty would have taken that attitude in a recent by-election perhaps John Tory would still be leader and in Queen's Park grilling his government on eHealth today. At some point if Liberals want to win government, you have to gain seats in ridings where you cannot see the CN Tower. Right now the Liberal Party does not look very strong outside of the most urban ridings in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. On the flip side a Conservative majority is so close you can taste it.

Congratulations to Scott Armstrong, Bernard Généreux , Daniel Paillé and Fit Donnelly for their victories last night!

Darryl is congratulating Charest on his majority, hopes Dumont runs as a federal Conservative in the next election.

Full story here.

Charest needs 63 of 125 seats to win a majority. By 11 p.m. ET, the Liberals were on track to edge past that number:

• Liberals: 66
• Parti Quebecois: 51
• ADQ: 7
• Quebec Solidaire: 1

Quebec has chosen stability over the PQ despite what has been going on in Ottawa right now. Does this mean Gilles Duceppe will run provincially for the PQ and how will that impact the coalition? Finally the ADQ has lost official party status and Mario Dumont has resigned as leader. Will he consider a run for the Federal Conservatives? I think most would agree he would be a great candidate for us in Quebec.
-Darryl

Photos from Toronto anti-coalition rally at Queens Park

Unfortunately the battery on my camera died, so credit goes to various friends on Facebook for these pictures I stole. It seems so far the media isn't covering our rally.

Overall a well attended rally. Several great speakers including new Canadians, veterans, John Tory, Frank Klees, Tim Hudak, Peter Kent, Rick Dykstra, and lots of young people. The crowd was fired up and angry over the proposed oppositon coup. The highlight was some of the creativity on the signs as well as the large amount of people who told me they actually voted Liberal but would never do so again. Overall it was a well attended rally, especially given that we didn't have any union drives to get our people out unlike those at Nathan Phillips Square. I am sure that Liberals will lose seats in Toronto following the next election. After this mistake, there is no longer such a thing as a safe Liberal seat in Canada.

Update: Toronto up until the last election was the last remaining stronghold for the Liberal Party. Still we drew a great crowd that was fired up and ready to fight for democracy. From pictures of the pro-coalition rally in the same picture I have seen in the media, it is clear that even in Toronto the government is winning the day. I think Toronto was successful, but I can't imagine the energy level at the rally in Calgary today. Check out the blog Right from Alberta for pictures of the Calgary event!
-Darryl

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Video of Peter Kent talking about the coalition and Liberals who have approached the Conservative Party and thanked him for proroguing parliament

Three crucial speeches from Stephen Harper

When you watch these three speeches, it is amazing how a week can change things in politics. These three speeches are important at this time from Stephen Harper. They outline what was happening when the country was on the right track. This coup has created political instability, economic uncertainty, a unity crisis and done nothing to address the needs of Canadians. This coalition has taken us on the wrong track in Canada, and it is time to get back on the right track.

The first video is from the Winnipeg Conservative Convention. At this speech he highlights the hard work of volunteers who made the election victory possible. He outlines his vision and reaches out to opposition parties. The second video is the election night victory speech that gave him the mandate to become Prime Minister. He reaches out to Opposition parties. In the third video he outlines what is going on now and what he has done on the economy. He solicits ideas from the opposition parties.

The opposition have been plotting a coup to defeat Harper by joining with the separatists while the Conservative Party was attempting to work for Canadians who elected them on the issues people care about. Opposition speeches following the Governor General's announcement didn't seem like leaders who were interested in working on the economy. It seemed to me they want power at all costs despite your vote. They have no intention of working with the elected Prime Minister to make this parliament work. Several including Bob Rae have said Harper should be brought down regardless of what he does. "There is no turning back".

The results of the last election should be upheld and stability should be maintained for Canadians. Opposition should put Canada before their own political ambitions and political games. Thanks to Stephane Dion, the case has been made for a Conservative majority.
-Darryl

Winnipeg Conservative Convention Speech:

What Harper stands for. A great speech that also highlights the last campaign and where the country was going before this power grab by the coalition. Credit to Stephen Taylor for filming this.



Election Night Coverage and Harper Victory Speech October 14, 2008

How you become the Prime Minister of Canada unless you are Stephane Dion. Note 4:15 on the tape. 5:07 is also interesting. At 7:14 Harper speeks.
-Darryl



Address to the Nation:

Why this Rally for Canada is happening. Note this is how you produce a video and make sure it arrives on time.
-Darryl

Harper's remarks after visiting the Governor General

Dec 4 - The Canadian Parliament has been suspended until Jan 26 09. Prime Minister Harper speaks regarding what will transpire during this extended Holiday Break.

Peter Milliken re-elected Speaker

It looks like MPs decided to go with experience and stability as oppose to an alternative candidate who promised better decorum. Overall I have been happy with the job performance of Peter Milliken, especially in this past minority parliament. By tradition the speaker only votes if there is a tie and in that case must vote with the government as we saw in 2005 following the confidence vote after Belinda crossed the floor. There was some talk that Conservatives would support one of their own with the hope that Milliken might retire if he wasn't re-elected, putting his Kingston and the Islands riding in play for the Conservative Party in the next election. This turned out to be unlikely after multiple Conservatives decided to run. Overall congratulations to Peter Milliken getting re-elected. I look forward to the throne speech that will take place tomorrow and also what will hopefully be a productive session of parliament. Today's vote took place by secret ballot.
-Darryl