Modeling Journey

Now that the boffins in the party are cobbling together a set of policies for the new leader to review some time this summer, the Cat has a suggestion for a change of policy regarding immigration which the Liberal Party should adopt in order to solve the problem that Simpson addresses in his latest column in the Globe & Mail:

"Two basic facts emerge from every study. First, fewer people will be working relative to those out of the work force as the overall population ages. Second, unless those who are working show productivity improvements, governments will struggle to sustain robust economic growth and find revenues to pay for the social programs, again notably health.

Demographic pressure will hit every government, but some harder than others. The four easternmost provinces already have the oldest age profiles. They will really feel the pinch. Quebec has a low birth rate, a big provincial debt and high taxes. The combination, the Groupe Desjardins economic unit said recently, places Quebec “at the dawn of a major demographic shock.”

The retirement of so many people will reverse the rhythm of economic growth. Government finances will weaken: few tax revenues, more spending, chronic deficits, more debt. Health-care and education budgets will be squeezed. “Certain sacred cows must undoubtedly be sacrificed to diminish the burden of the debt and, above all, make it supportable for younger generations,” said Desjardins."

And my proposal?

That the Liberal Party state that it will increase annual immigration targets substantially so as to bring into the country millions of new Canadians over the next decade. These new Canadians will replace the boomers who are retiring, work and pay taxes, and make sure that government coffers have sufficient funds to pay for the most important items facing them as the population ages and health care costs rise substantially.

And the LPC should set out in its policies the annual targets for each year. My suggestion is a minimum of 500,000 for 2010, rising to 750,000 in 2012 and each year thereafter, with a possibility of further increases in five years time.