Modeling Journey

The latest EKOS poll (July 9 2009) has some interesting figures on just who currently intend to vote for the various parties.

Between them, the LPC and Tories have 64% of those polled saying they will vote for one or other of these two parties (31.2% LPC, 31.8% CPC).

That means a whopping 36% have turned their backs on these two so-called national parties, and favour the NDP or Greens, or, in Quebec, the Bloc.

It also means that neither the LPC nor the CPC stand a snowball's hope in hell of winning a majority government should these numbers hold up in the next election. And that means that we face a minority government, propped up by one or more of the other parties.

But dig a bit deeper.

Both the LPC and CPC have a disproportionate slice of the oldest demographic favouring them – a huge 78.6% of those over 65 would vote for one of these two parties. That is way above their combined 64% of the total votes!

As you go down the age bracket, the proportion of respondents who say they would vote for either of these two parties plunges, reaching 50% for those younger than 25.

What gives?

Are these two 'mainstream' parties so filled with tired old men and old women MPs that they do not have any policies which are appealing to the younger voters?