Modeling Journey

Let's consider one possible framing of the public debate over the summer, leading up the to the next election (most probably some time next year, in my opinion).
Harper is in power. Harper is prime minister. Harper's government has been at the helm for several years now, and come the next election, will be asking voters to allow them to stay in power for another four or more years.

Right smack in the middle of a long and painful recession, with the treasury of the country sadly depleted by billions of dollars due to Harper's slash and burn tactics (tax giveaways), and the so-called stimulus funding (vote-buying) of the government.

So how can we start framing the debate?

Let's start with these facts, from the Toronto Star:

"Just last fall, fooling enough of the people, enough of the time was pretty easy. With an assist from political rivals, Stephen Harper kept economic reality at bay until after federal ballots were counted.

Now the Prime Minister is engaged in the much more difficult project of persuading history to repeat. He wants voters in the next election to believe the ballooning deficit, the one a recession-proof Canadian economy was so certain to evade, will fix itself.

Fantasy is the free lunch of politics. Eventually, this generation or another will have to pay the price of feasting at the groaning board of stimulus spending …
After doing his sums, the Prime Minister, who doubles as chief faux economist, forecasts only blue skies, even if they arrive later than first promised. Forget the damage to the manufacturing sector, threatened federal revenues and the staggering debt of its sustaining trading partner, Canada will surge from bust to boom and back to surplus with no structural deficit…

"If the current economic forecast prevails, Orr says, "raising taxes is the only realistic option to balance the budget by 2013-14."

Realism wasn't central to Conservative strategy in the last election; it's apparently not what they have in mind for the next. Hoping voters will suspend their disbelief a second time, the ruling party is again dangling the prospect of a pain-free future."

How to deal with Harper's evasions on the reality of the problem?

The Cat suggests that we target his so-called strengths – a decisive leader who is best suited to handle the economy.

But we do it by making it an issue of trust.

Trust in his judgement.

Trust in his foresight.

Trust in his ability to avoid allowing his ideological beliefs counter the reality of the economy (witness his cutting of the GST and leaving the government without a safety cushion for the rainy days which have now come).
Trust in truthfulness.

And then hammer this message home with five or six major examples of why we just cannot trust him and his reality-denying government to handle the economy any more.

What say ye?