The latest EKS poll (July 23 2009) has an interesting snippet which allows us to see from this snapshot poll which of the parties has the strongest grip on its supporters. The "stickiness" of a party is a measure of its fluidity. The less sticky it is, the more likely it is that its supporters can be induced to move to another party.
The results call into question Ignatieff's reported decision to move the Liberal Party to the right so as to attract Tory voters. Based on this poll, he is heading in the wrong direction.
The LPC is the most fluid party, and the CP is the least fluid.
The poll shows the results when voters were asked which party was their second choice. The stickiness quotient can be judged from those who fall into the "No second choice" category.
Based on this factor, the ranking of stickiness is as follows:
First is the CP, with 40.2% saying they had no second choice.
Second is the Green Party, with 24.0%.
Third is the BQ, with 20.8%.
The NDP follows in fourth place in the stickiness measure, with a low 17.9% having no second choice.
And last of all, the LPC has a scant 17.5% who had no second choice.
Put another way, Liberal supporters are 2.2 times more likely to choose another party as their second choice than Tory supporters are.
We can conclude from this that it would be tough to shake loose Tory supporters; if you can, the Liberals benefit most as the Tory supporters break its way by 32.9%. Tories break right, to the Liberals.
Where do Liberals break? One half break left (to the Greens and Dippers); only one quarter break right to the Tories.
This raises the question for the Liberals: if the Tories are hard to shake loose, and most Liberals will move left as a second choice, how can we best retain Liberals and gain enough votes to become a majority government (or even a minority government)?
This poll signposts the direction and spells out this message for Michael Ignatieff: Go left, young man!
