Modeling Journey

Spent a few minutes listening to CBC interviewing Coyne and Herbert and the topic of what advice they would give to Michael Ignatieff came up.

Both opined that Ignatieff should back off his 'death wish' (as Herbert called it) of trying to force an election, and spend some time (months, perhaps years) fixing the Liberal Party, raising funds for an election, and coming out with a policy or two.

Both seemed to key in on recent polls which have shown a resurgence of support for Harper's Tories (especially in BC and in Ontario), and which seem to indicate that the Tories will regain power in an election, most likely as another minority government.

The advice given by these two commentators is dead wrong, and totally ignores a fact of political life.

Consider this:

"Before entering the Commons to introduce his motion, Ignatieff told reporters his party had done "much soul-searching" before coming to the conclusion it could no longer support the Tories.

Liberal support - or Liberal abstentions on confidence votes - has kept the Harper government in power for more than three years. But the corrosive impact of that begrudging support was hollowing out internal Liberal party morale."

Ignatieff's speech tabling the vote of non confidence in the Harper government is worth reading very carefully. It was not just the usual opposition speech, railing against the government in power. It was a seminal speech, outlining a sea change in Liberal Party attitudes, and committing the party to defeating the Tories at every opportunity that arises.

There is no going back on the Liberal Party declaration of war on Harper's incompetent and untrustworthy government. The Liberals will vote against the Tories in each and every confidence vote in the coming weeks and months, until the government falls and an election is called.

The only thing that will change that is a palace coup, replacing Michael Ignatieff as leader of the party, with the new leader disavowing the Liberal change of heart.
And the Liberal Party is nowhere near a palace coup right now, despite the negative polls.