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Tuesday, 13 October 2009
Bear this comment in mind when next you read or hear about Harper's new Tories being close to forming a majority government:
"Several recent polls have shown the Conservatives hovering around 40% in national support, the level often considered to be the threshold that a party must reach to win a majority.
But Ipsos pollster Darrel Bricker said the actual majority threshold for the Tories is likely several points higher, because of the "inefficiency" of the party's support base. For example, the party's base is concentrated in Alberta and the Prairies, which together account for 49 of the Conservative's 143 seats in the House of Commons.
"There have been some suggestions that the Tories are close to a majority, but I don't think these numbers show that," said Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Reid Public Affairs."
Nothing like a concentration of rightwing voter in Alberta and Saskatchewan to dilute your chances of success, eh?