Modeling Journey

This week is shaping up to be a really bad one for Michael Ignatieff and the party he leads. Take just this one article for a taste:

"Since early September, when the Conservatives and the Liberals were in a virtual dead heat in the polls, the Tories have pulled ahead.

The latest poll was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6. The polling period included the Oct. 1 vote on the Liberals' motion of no-confidence in the minority Tory government — a motion the Conservatives defeated as the NDP decided to abstain. The NDP has vowed to keep the government in power to ensure passage of legislation extending employment insurance benefits.

EKOS president Frank Graves said the Liberals have lost ground with voters in traditional strongholds, including in Toronto and among women, university graduates, visible minorities and recent immigrants.

"Even visible minorities and recent immigrants who were like almost an automatic vote for the Liberals, have shifted," said Graves.

"They're running about equally now with the Conservatives. All these other groups are lining up more on the conservative side of the equation."

As his party has slipped in the polls, Ignatieff's disapproval ratings have grown.
The percentage of respondents who disapproved of the way Ignatieff is handling his job was 51 per cent, up from 38 per cent in August.

Ignatieff's approval rating was 19 per cent, down from 29 per cent two months ago.
Graves said it is difficult to pinpoint why Ignatieff's popularity has plummeted in such a short time.

"Perhaps some of the framing that was put in place by the Conservatives and some of the so-called negative ads have stuck with Mr. Ignatieff," he said. "Because it's hard to line up anything he's said or done specifically."

Ignatieff, speaking Thursday morning in London, Ont., after addressing the local chamber of commerce, said there is "no question" the Conservatives have characterized or "framed" him in a certain way.

"I've got to lift that big frame off and let Canadians see who I really am, and we will be doing that," he said.

"If there are things I need to do better, I am certainly going to be ready to try, because I want to listen to Canadians and improve my performance any way I can," he said."

Let's take note of several things before we all rush for the cliff in true lemming fashion.

First, the poll results in the past two weeks have been disastrous for the Liberal Party. Fortunes have plummeted, as we go down like a rock, the Tories soar, and it seems almost as if Harper might finally get his chance to gain a majority government and set about doing what he really came to Ottawa to do: gut the federal government, slash its future ability to 'mess' with the provinces, stack all the bureaucracy with right wing believers, change the way parties are funded so as to wound the Bloc and the Liberals, and try to cement as many other changes deep into Canada's fabric so that they are very difficult to take out when finally the tide turns and a more liberal government takes over from the Harper Tories.

Secondly, Layton now believes he was right to avoid an election by propping up the Tories, and will seek to continue to do so for a long time, even if he has to hold his nose and take some really bad tasting medicine along with the few crumbs which Harper will toss him. Of course, as a result the NDP will lose supporters (especially to the Bloc and to the Greens).

Thirdly, the Liberals should now realize that this government will do anything in its power to smash their opposition, keep the left fragmented, and retain power. And that includes continuing to use the public purse as if it was an extension of the Conservative Party head office funds. The complaint lodged against the Tories use of the funds of Canadians to push their own private budget views is just a small example of the misuse. The way this government labels everything and rolls out government programs is also just another example of this bent, as is its use of stimulus funds to fund mostly Conservative ridings. Know your enemy; he will not change his ways.

Finally, note two key statements in the above article, the first being this:

"All these other groups are lining up more on the conservative side of the equation."

That conclusion by pollster Graves is wrong enough to be corrected. His and other polls simply show what voters will do if they faced an election today (without any campaign having taken place). The respondents to his polls answered questions about their approvals, and choices of parties. None of these polls demonstrates that there has been a seismic shift in the values of Canadians, making this country more conservative. They show that voters prefer Harper and his government over Ignatieff and the Liberal Party, Layton and the Dippers, and the Bloc.

The next key statement is that by Ignatieff:

"… I want to listen to Canadians and improve my performance any way I can."

Good.

Because Ignatieff and his advisors can start by thinking about what alternatives they are allowing to be presented to Canadians, and why these might lead to the disastrous results the party is now seeing.

At the moment Canadians are being given two alternatives for the leader of the country, and the government of the country. And both of those alternatives have been, are and will continue to be written by Stephen Harper.

Harper has presented his leadership and his party to Canadians, in tens of thousands of ways, and all over the country, using massive media buys in many guises. That is one alternative Canadians are now considering when pollsters rock up and ask them for a response.

Harper also has presented to Canadians the features he wants them to consider when they look at Ignatieff, and his framing is the one in the public space right now. It is as if Harper has put a sock on his one hand, raised it up to his shoulder, had the television cameras focus on it, and then spoken for Ignatieff out of the corner of his mouth.

So Canadians get two voices when it comes to leaders, and both come from Harper.
When it comes to policies, there are two alternatives before the public as well. The Harper government one, with its tight and careful framing. And the Harper framing of the policies of the Liberal Party, which are devastating effective.

There is no Liberal Party alternative set of policies being presented to Canadians.
So why on earth are we surprised that Canadians decide among the alternatives presented to them daily by Harper, and say they think Harper is a better leader, and his party has better policies on the economy and crime, for example?

Michael Ignatieff could start his learning process by thinking some thoughts about this.