Modeling Journey

Yesterday, throughout Canada we heard the shrill sound of thousands of Liberal chickens rushing about, crying that the sky was falling, doom was approaching, the four horsemen of the apocalypse were riding pell mell towards Ottawa, and all was lost.

All this fuss was caused by the latest poll by the Strategic Council, which showed the Tories decimated in Quebec while a rising tide continued to lift the Liberal boat there; most voters on the prairies becoming even more satisfied with their hometown prime minister; Tory support in Ontario shooting up to the roof; and overall the Tories gaining 41% of the respondents approval while the Liberals had only 28%.

Bad news, indeed.

But a reason for acting like Chicken Little?

Pshaw!

Buried deep in the commentary was the single most acute observation made by Mr Donolo, of Strategic Council. He gets it.

In the past few weeks the Liberal Party has upset the dynamics of Canadian politics in a manner seldom seen before. When Pierre Trudeau took a long walk in the snow and decided on a political course, our politics were changed, and there were consequences. Now, too, it seems that Michael Ignatieff, taking some time off during the summer months to think his thoughts, has also decided on a political course, and our politics have been changed, and there will be consequences.

The Liberal Party has lost confidence in the minority government of Stephen Harper, due to that government's incompetence and untrustworthiness, and has decided to oppose it, and do whatever is necessary to vote it out of office and trigger an election, so as to give Canadians an opportunity to replace it with a decent government, respectful of parliamentary rights, behaving in a more moral fashion, and taking the interests of all Canadians into consideration in setting and implementing policies.

Such a change, after more than a year of the Liberals constantly propping up the do-little, narrow Tory government, is a change of substance.

There is every reason to believe that a change of such a magnitude should impact Canadians, and cause concern, hope, disgust, misunderstanding, and volatility.

This is what Donolo's poll found:

"“The electorate has never been this volatile,” Mr. Donolo believes. “That's the real story.”"

But he goes on, and this is the heartening thing for Liberals (and all Canadians wishing for a better parliament, more responsive to their needs):

"He notes also that Mr. Ignatieff's decision to withdraw support from the Conservatives may benefit the party in the long term, allowing it to define itself as something other than a crutch propping up the government.

If so, Mr. Ignatieff may be able to re-brand himself on his own terms, and the numbers could move again.""

There you have it.

The massive change caused by the Liberal Party deciding not to support the Tory government has given the country a chance for the Liberals to re-define the political discourse in the country.

And when that happens, expect the polls to change, with the Liberals rising, the NDP and Greens static or declining, and the Tories losing support everywhere, not just in Quebec.

So to all you doubters out there, listen: This Cat aint no chicken.