Thursday 11 June 2009

Threehundredandeight has the reasons summarized, based on the latest polls:

"The NDP's result isn't horrible, and is in fact a little better than what we've seen lately, but Jack Layton would be taking a huge gamble if he supported a non-confidence motion, as he will surely see his caucus fall to under 30 seats. He could even lose as many as half of his MPs. The Bloc has nothing to gain in an election, except maybe a return to areas that the Conservatives have won in the last two elections. But they are likely to see their caucus drop by a handful of seats, their portion of the vote drop by a few points, their finances to drop by a few million dollars, and their political capital to take a big hit."

The only thing the Liberals can do right now is attend to the fleshing out of our policies, make sure that members get a chance to review them before they are cast in stone by the elite, and gather in as much cash as possible in preparation for an election in, say, a year's time.

Oh, and they can consider another course of action: cut a bargain with the Dippers and the Bloc. This would have to commit the three parties to not run candidates against each other in ridings now held by each party, and for both the Bloc and NDP to have some kind of say over what a minority Liberal government would do once in power.

If this is anathema to Ignatieff and his advisors, the alternative is as I laid out above: get ready and wait until the Tory mandate expires and they are forced to call an election.

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