Modeling Journey

Recent polls (especially today's breakdown of the 905 wipeout of Harper's 'suburban' votes) have shown the Liberals edging ahead of the Tories, in both of the vote-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec.

If an election was called right now, these polls mean we will get more votes than we did last time (a paltry 26% of total votes across Canada), and win more seats.
However, two things make a minority Liberal government (let alone a majority one) a long shot right now.

Firstly, past polls have shown that the Tories do better once the writ is dropped and can boost their numbers by around 4% (with a similar 4% reduction in Liberal votes) during the campaign. So any margin which is less than 4% means that the Tories might still be able to change the dynamics of the game through their better campaigning, and eke out a minority government.

Secondly, Jack Layton would need to have his head read if he in any way voted with the Liberals on any non-confidence motion so as to throw the Tories out of power. His polling numbers are being badly hit, and waiting is better for the NDP than doing a lemminglike lateral arabesque off the cliff edge. Likewise, Duceppe needs to walk wide of the cliff edge, given the resurgent Liberal numbers in Quebec.

What does this mean?

Simply that an election in the next 12 to 18 months is highly unlikely, unless Jack Layton develops a Joe Clark-electoral death wish, and steps off the cliff to personal (and party) oblivion.

So where does this leave us?

With time.

Time for Harper to get his act together. This is the man who understands discipline (usually), and who lusts for power. He united the right; pulling his shell shocked troops together is not an impossible task for him.

Time for the economy to start turning around, with many indices showing positive and rising improvements.

Time for the Tories to spend a few more millions defining (framing) Ignatieff.

Time for the Liberals to spend their precious time in Parliament pounding the Tories on relatively insignificant issues (the tapes, for example) while avoiding telling voters what the party stands for and why the voters should vote Liberal.

At the moment, without any comprehensive Liberal set of policies announced and laid before the voters, the party, under its new leader, seems to be banking on becoming the next government by default. If you don't like Harper and his Tories, try us.
This default-choice strategy relies on voters thinking that they have been presented a blank cheque, which voters can fill in. It relies on voters – having tired of Harper's political mean spiritedness – deciding that the devil they don't know is better than the one they do.

But this is really an insult to voters, and courts disaster because, as the pollster pointed out, the Tories have still maintained a 30% grip on the electorate nationwide, and have the luxury of time because the NDP is unlikely to decide to (voluntarily) transform themselves into lemmings.

For us to regain power, we need to place before the voters a comprehensive, liberal set of policies and programs, so that Canadians may know what we stand for, and what they will get if they decide to change from the Tories to another government.