Modeling Journey

The Tory framing ads and the recent retreat by Ignatieff on the so-called Harper Report Card have cost the party a few percentage points in support, according to the latest Angus Reid poll.

What is more troubling is that Harper seems to be regaining and cementing his lead over Ignatieff with respect to the vitally important leadership elements, as this extract shows:

"Harper remains ahead of Ignatieff on being a strong and decisive leader (43% to 28%), having a vision for Canada's future (42% to 35%), managing the economy effectively (32% to 22%), and being honest and trustworthy (28% to 25%).

Ignatieff leads on caring about the environment (28% to 21%).

The two leaders are virtually tied on inspiring confidence, understanding the problems of Canadians, understanding complex issues, and generally agreeing with Canadians on issues they care about.

Harper managed to expand on his April numbers on the leadership and vision questions, while Ignatieff underwent a marked decline on inspiring confidence."

A 5% lead over Ignatieff as a strong and decisive leader is not positive, given Harper's series of missteps over the past few months. My guess is that Ignatieff's missteps in talking tough and then caving and propping up Harper's government have cancelled out Harper's errors, and that the Tory framing ads have also contributed to a relative disadvantage for Ignatieff as a leader.

What is really dismaying is that in a time of a world wide recession, with a Tory government which has proven itself woefully inept in anticipating and dealing with our own recession, that Harper should have a 10% lead (almost 50% higher) over Ignatieff when it comes to the best person to manage the economy effectively.

What is happening to cause this?

My best guess is that Ignatieff has been seen as a vacillating politician, given the many changes of position with respect to supporting the Tory government, and that the total absence of an announced, comprehensive Liberal economic plan has simply allowed Harper to set the pace as the best choice to run the country's economy.

Fortunately, both these problems are easily resolved by Ignatieff, if he finds some better advisors, backs off empty threats followed by inaction, and has the Liberal Party unveil a comprehensive set of policies, including economic ones.

If he does these things, I would expect the polls to show a marked improvement in about 6 to 12 months.

Just in time for an election … if the NDP and Bloc should agree,