Pros and Cons from Iggy's Perspective of forcing an election
Apparently today or Monday, Michael Ignatieff is going to tell Canadians if he plans to force an election on one of the opposition days or if he will abstain allowing the government to survive through the summer at least. There has been a lot of speculation on the odds of an election ranging from no chance to a 85% chance of Canadians hitting the polls this summer. Let us first look at the facts.
1, Canadians last went to the polls late in 2008. The current minority parliament has not yet lasted a year.
2, Since the time of Dion’s leadership, Conservatives have largely governed with the support of the Liberals on confidence votes.
3, A coalition was formed in December and January of this year. It was rejected by Canadians and as a result Ignatieff supported the budget and killed the coalition.
4, Since the coalition, several recent polls consistently indicate Liberal support ahead of the Conservatives with Liberal fortunes improving in the 905, Quebec and BC.
5, The NDP and Bloc are on record as recently as yesterday suggesting they will not support the government.
6, The NDP would likely lose seats to the Liberals in the event an election took place in the near future.
7, The BQ might lose seats around Montreal but are likely to pick up seats around Quebec City. Several Bloc members qualify for full pensions starting in July.
8, It appears Stephen Harper will not back down on EI due to the already large deficit
9, Based on his voting record and statements; there are not many policy differences between Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff at this point in time.
10, Canadians do not want an election and could get angry if politicians spend another 600 million on the fourth election in five years only to get another minority during these economic times.
Based on those facts, here are some reasons Ignatieff might avoid an election:
-He will look opportunistic should he decide to go to the polls. He voted for the budget, the Afghanistan extension, Harper’s justice policies and has supported the Harper Conservatives on virtually all confidence votes since he was elected leader. His only policy difference right now with the Conservatives is this EI policy proposal that has not caught on with Canadians. During this recession, Canadians will want to see an alternative vision to what the current government has implemented. EI is not an election winner and no platform or ideas have come out at this point in public. Kelowna Accord, national childcare and other recycled Liberal policies are not affordable unless he either raises taxes or cuts spending elsewhere. If his argument is that the stimulus isn’t being spent fast enough, he will have to explain how an election will speed it up. If he complains about the size of the deficit, he will have to tell Canadians what programs he will cut or what taxes he will raise in order to reduce it. At this point, he lacks a defining issue that would resonate with Canadians on the election trail. He lacks a policy Canadians are excited about. He lacks a scandal that Canadians are angry about. At this point all he has is a few polls in his favour and a lot of voters hurting because of the recession. While he leads in the polls, a win is not a slam dunk for him right now.
-Although he has a lead in several polls, the lead is not as large as some would expect given the economic crisis that would be tough on any incumbent government. Any backlash for calling an unnecessary election or a successful negative campaign by the Conservative Party could result in him losing the next election. If that happens will his leadership be safe?
- Liberals are just starting to nominate candidates now and have so far yet to recruit any new blood. A few potential stars have been rumoured such as Louise Arbour, Phil Fontaine and David Dodge but to my knowledge none of these people are officially confirmed as running for the Liberals in the next nomination. Some incumbents did not meet the requirements and will now face a nomination race. Others could potentially retire. If the plug is pulled on June 19, do Liberals have enough time to get the quality candidates in place? Obviously money, technology, volunteers and platform are other areas where it is unclear if Liberals are ready to fight an election.
- If Ignatieff waits, do his chances of victory or majority improve? Economy while showing signs of recovery could still not have hit rock bottom. Some have predicted the economy will recover by the end of the year. Others predict it will take much longer. If Ignatieff pulls the plug now, does he risk missing a majority that could be attained should he wait until the fall or spring?
- The summer presents a good opportunity for Iggy to work the BBQ circuit and become better known to Canadians. While universally considered superior to Dion; it is not exactly Iggymania at this stage. It is also unknown how damaging the last round of Conservative attacks were and how damaging future attacks might be.
Based on the same facts, here are some reasons he might call an election now or at least vote non-confidence:
- When Stephane Dion was leader, he found himself in a nasty trap that made him look weak thanks to the NDP and the Bloc. The reason for that trap was Dion wanted to avoid an election more than any of his opponents. As a result he abstained and propped up Harper leading to Rick Mercer and others making a mockery of him as leader. Dion never was able to shake the image and it cost him in the last election. Michael Ignatieff wants to avoid this happening to him, but so far he has been unsuccessful. When the coalition was rejected by Canadians and Conservatives were polling at over 50%, Ignatieff was appointed leader and had to support the budget in order to avoid an election and distance himself form the coalition. While he could claim he forced some concessions, the NDP/Bloc accused him of forming a “coalition” with Harper. Today Iggy is stronger than Dion ever was, but as I mentioned in point one of why he may not call an election; he has yet to differentiate himself or paint an alternative vision to Harper and the Conservative Party. The NDP and Bloc have again attempted to lay the same trap by coming out early and saying they will oppose the government on upcoming confidence votes. Iggy may want to call their bluff to break this cycle of having to abstain or prop up the government to avoid an election. The fact of the matter is the NDP would have their seats reduced if an election were called anytime soon and Layton’s leadership could be threatened. 16 Bloc members could find themselves gambling with their pensions if an election takes place before July. If Ignatieff comes out today or Monday and says he is voting non-confidence; it is quite possible that Layton would back down and pay a price with his credibility. If not, an election might be a better alternative for Liberals than looking weak. Certainly they have more incentive to hit the polls than the NDP and have no reason to back down as they have in the past. Announcing that Liberals will no longer support the government could break this pattern even if there is no election.
- The polls are currently showing that the Liberals would win if an election took place right now. The NDP and Bloc have said they will vote non-confidence. This might be Iggy’s best and only chance to win. The economy is bad right now but is showing signs of recovery. A budget could later be turned into a campaign document and perhaps appease the Conservative base currently upset about spending, bailouts and deficits. Harper would also have the opportunity to be Prime Minister during the Vancouver Olympics perhaps spiking his popularity. If the economy recovers, Conservatives will get credit. Is there a risk of backlash? Yes. Do Liberals have a platform? No. Are Liberals truly ready for an election? Perhaps not as ready as they would be in the fall or spring. Despite this, these opportunities do not come everyday. Passing on this opportunity may come back to bite him later.
- Conservatives have gained some baggage. The budget is a record in Canadian history. Spending has increased. The auto bailout is not popular. Unemployment is up. There is not money to promise much or to load pork into ridings. Conservatives are in freefall in Quebec. The situation in Southern Ontario is not looking very good. There is Lisa Raitt and a few other Ottawa scandals. There is some concern a lot of Conservative voters could stay home in the next election. Harper’s positives are equal to Ignatieff but his negatives are much higher. It is tough to convince regular Canadians that the government is on the right track when economic times are so tough. All of these issues may not be there six months from now.
- Canadians will be angry about an election being called, but those Canadians are more likely to stay home altogether than vote Conservative to send a message to Ignatieff for calling the election. Canadians did not want an election in 2004, 2006 and 2008 either.
- Liberals do not like being in opposition. It is a party motivated more by power than policy. It will be too tempting to avoid an election when they are up in the polls and can taste government and all the perks that come with it.
Chances of an election:
I would not be surprised if Canadians vote in July and I would not be surprised if we don’t. Here is what each leader has to consider.
Stephen Harper – an election is largely out of his hands. He could roll the dice and back down on EI and implement the Liberal proposal. Doing so might buy him time but it would further alienate the base.
Michael Ignatieff – will put a non-confidence motion forward so at worst he does not look weak and sends a message to the NDP/Bloc or at best causes an election he believes he can win. Only way he backs down is if internally the party is not ready for an election or if he lacks confidence in his chances for victory. I suppose he could back down and say “Canadians do not want an election” but ultimately that would mean supporting Harper again. This hurts his chances in the fall or later for the same reasons that are creating obstacles right now.
Jack Layton – has constantly accused the Liberals of supporting Harper and being absent in their role as official opposition. Claims Iggy has just recently championed EI, while the NDP has been fighting this battle for years. He would love to vote against Harper, but if he thinks Liberals will too and can’t be sure of Duceppe’s plan; next to the Conservatives, he probably has the most to lose if an election happens this summer. The ultimate flip flop might cost him his credibility but it is better than his job along with half his caucus. Iggy putting forward a confidence motion on EI would put the NDP into an impossible position of sacrificing their credibility vs. getting destroyed in an election campaign. Ultimately over the long term the results would be the same. I believe Layton is the most likely to back down.
Gilles Duceppe – some members may not want to lose their pension, but there isn’t much to gain or lose if the Bloc goes into an election. Seats they lose to the Liberals they would likely make up by winning seats from the Conservatives. There is no challenger to Duceppe at this point. Some Bloc members might abstain to protect their pensions and to avoid an inconvenience of a summer election. Unlike the NDP however, they have much less reason to fear an election.
Overall, I put the odds of an election at 75% but would not be too surprised if at the end of the day a summer election is avoided. What is clear is that every confidence vote from now on will be a risk that the government falls.
Thanks for reading…
Darryl
