Modeling Journey

We have heard Duceppe, Layton, Ignatieff and Harper growl about lines in the sand regarding unemployment insurance, and the media have been scrambling to decipher the growls. Do they really mean that there could be a summer election over a vote of confidence on the EI which the Tories lose?

Or will either Layton or Harper or Ignatieff back off when confronted, and seek another way out?

The sticking point, according to Harper's Tories (who have been clearer than either Layton or Ignatieff on whether they will fight an election) appears to be the use of a common 360 hours test before anyone can start claiming EI. The Tories have distorted the positions of the NDP and LPC on this issue, with Baird comically fulminating about 'socialism' (does that man actually know what socialism is about? I doubt it).

However, come June 4 – less than two weeks away – we the voters will see which of these leaders have been blustering and which have actually meant what they said.

The opportunity will be the vote on the NDP bill C-280, as Layton explains:

"Jack Layton: Bill c-280 has received first reading in the House and is being debated on June 3rd. The vote on Second Reading will be on June 10th. If it passes, it will go to the Standing Committee for consideration and amendments. That is where I hope that a compromise can be found so that we can get it back for the Third Reading vote before the end of June, allowing unemployed workers to get help. The key elements of the Bill are: lowering the hours needed to qualify to 360 hours everywhere in Canada, eliminating the 2 week penalty period and increasing the benefit rates.

9:55 Jack Layton: The NDP motion calling for the measures found in our Bill, and more - such as allowing self-employed people to participate in EI - was passed by the House of Commons two months ago. Mr. Harper used to say that any Prime Minister had a moral obligation to respect the will of the House of Commons. I guess he lost that morality along the way somehow!

9:55 Bruce Campion-Smith:
If I could ask Mr. Layton a question, do you see a scenario where the opposition parties could come together in the next few weeks on this issue and press the government?

9:58 Jack Layton: I believe that our Bill provides the context for such an agreement, Bruce. Talk is one thing, and not worth much. Legislation is the key tool of Parliament to get things changed. That's why we started with a motion on EI, to test the will of the House. It passed. The government failed to legislate, therefore, we converted our ideas into Legislation and ensured they came to the House in a timely way, putting aside other business to get our Bill into the schedule of the House. It is now too late for other parties to bring forward legislation this June, so our Bill has to become the focus for the efforts to fix EI by the time the House rises."

Note the following:

1. The NDP bill was passed as a motion by the LPC, NDP and Bloc. Why would any of these parties not now pass the bill to convert that motion into legislation?

2. Passing the NDP bill will be a confidence measure, triggering an election.

3. No other party has time available under the rules of Parliament to introduce their own legislation.

4. The NDP bill has the change to a uniform 360 hour requirement that all three opposition parties want.

5. Layton has indicated elsewhere that he hopes that if the bill is passed, then the Tories can introduce amendments at the Standing Committee. He has offered Harper a fig leaf by saying he thinks that amendments may be possible which meet Harper's concerns and still get the amended bill passed into law. This is Layton's strategy to avoid an election at this time, but to honour his party's commitment to the earlier NDP motion which the three opposition parties passed. Time will tell if Layton is reading Harper correctly.

So, battle is joined.

Let us now see what the four bristling party leaders say when the rubber hits the road.

Get yourself some popcorn and settle down to enjoy the show!