Modeling Journey

Michael Ignatieff might have changed his mind on the Coalition agreement he and all other Liberal MPs signed with the NDP, but sooner or later (and most likely sooner) he will find himself in talks with the NDP on the contours of a coalition government.

The Gap guarantees that he will have to enter into such talks.

What is the Gap?

Consider the current seat allocations in Parliament. The Tories have 143 seats (10 in Quebec, 51 in Ontario). The Liberals have 77 (38 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec). The NDP has 36. The Bloc has 48 (of Quebec's total of 75).

The gap between the Tory's 143 seats and the Liberals is 66 seats.

The gap between the Tory's 143 seats and the combined Liberal and NDP 113 seats is 30 seats.

The political party with the most seats after the next election will be asked by the Governor General to attempt to form a government, and to pass a vote of confidence in the House. For the Liberals on their own to become the party with the most seats and so be asked by the GG to form a government, they will need to close the gap of 66 seats between them and the Tories.

The LPC can close this gap by taking 34 seats away from the Tories.

This means they would have to take (say) all 10 Tory seats in Quebec and 23 other seats (from the Tories 51 in Ontario, or the other provinces). If they could do this (and current polls make this very unlikely), the LPC would end up with 111 seats and the Tories with 110 seats.

In order to win its first vote of confidence, and so become the government, the LPC would need the support of either (1) both the Bloc and the NDP, or (2) the NDP with the Bloc abstaining from voting, or (3) the Bloc (whether or not the NDP abstains from voting).

The LPC might also close the gap by taking seats from both the Tories and NDP (a more likely scenario, given that the NDP seems to be at its high water mark of seats, and its tide is ebbing daily). But to be asked by the GG to become the government, the LPC will still need 112 votes to the Tory's reduced 110 votes.

It is highly unlikely at this stage that the LPC will take seats away from the Bloc.

How probable is it that the Bloc will support the Liberals? It is possible. The Bloc would be relatively indifferent to whether the Tories or Liberals are the government, provided the governing party does not attack its funding, and is taking steps to boost the Quebec economy. It has in the past supported the Tories, and was prepared to support the Coalition before Ignatieff unilaterally broke the agreement between the Coalition and the Bloc. However, it is also possible that the Bloc will refuse to vote for the Liberals, and abstain or vote against the LPC government, in order to punish Ignatieff for breaking that agreement. It might decide it could wring more concessions for Quebec from a suitably chastened Tory minority government, and so throw its support behind Harper when the Liberal government fails its first confidence vote and the GG turns to Harper to form a government.

What is clear from the above analysis is that the LPC and NDP are locked in a self-destroying mutual fight, with both losing, and the Tories benefiting.

Harper showed strategic brilliance in his early analysis that the only way the Liberals had become the 'naturally governing party' was because the opposition to the LPC was divided. So he set about uniting the opposition parties, and with the help of Peter MacKay merged the Progressive Conservative Party (actually a reverse takeover) with the Alliance Party. And ended the decades-long honeymoon of the Liberals.

For Ignatieff to become Prime Minister, he will need to show similar strategic brilliance. The clearest way for the Liberals to become the government is through an agreement with the NDP which provides for the NDP to support the LPC.

Layton would consider such an agreement, provided that the NDP gained something significant from this. A formal merger (for a set period) similar to the one Ignatieff killed, might do the trick. However, if the LPC took seats away from the NDP in the next election, the willingness of the NDP to support the LPC would be significantly reduced.

The chances are higher that the NDP would consider an electoral pact, in writing, entered into before the next election (that is, before any vote of confidence in the Harper government being held), made public, and linked to the retention by the NDP of its current seats in the House as well as a formal coalition.

Right now it seems that Ignatieff his concentrating on proving to Harper that he is as tough as Harper, and is talking about confidence votes. But sooner or later he and his senior advisors will need to consider the realities of the political strengths of the various parties should we have an election.

Those realities currently favour another Tory minority government.

Unless Ignatieff thinks strategically, and has a Harper flash of inspiration regarding changing the game, rather than fighting an election on ground which favours the Tories. If he does, the best bet would be coalition talks now with the NDP. However, to avoid any problems of perception (such as those he claims made him change his mind about the last Coalition), he could cut a deal with the NDP but not cut any formal deal with the Bloc, and hope that between them the LPC and NDP can win more seats than the Tories in the next election.