Tuesday 25 May 2010

Canadian coalition calculus: Why Stephen Harper will be prime minister for the next decade

Posted by 2011 at 10:39

I've looked at the polls for the past 12 plus months, the current seats held in Parliament, threehundredeight's forecasted seats based on more recent polls, considered the calculus of coalitions under Canadian law and the attitudes towards coalitions expressed by leaders of the various parties, and having made several deductions, have come to some conclusions.

The most important is that – given business as usual by the opposition parties – Stephen Harper is highly likely to be prime minister of Canada for at least the next decade, and possibly longer.

This result is probable given the irresistable force of our elecoral politics.

There are only three situations where this irresistable force meets an immoveable object, and could be deflected from a decade of Prime Minister Harper.
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