Voters supporting the NDP and Liberal Parties in Saanich-Gulf Islands should put their country before their party and vote for Elizabeth May on election day.

Now, with less than a week until the federal election, the Green party leader has a poll to help back it up.

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All of Canada would gain.

Michael Ignatieff has presented voters with his view of what the voters really face in the next election (coming next year or the year after):

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff says that if an election is called in the coming months, his party is the only true alternative to the Conservatives.

In an interview with CTV's Question Period, Ignatieff says that a vote for Jack Layton's NDP or Gilles Duceppes' Bloc Quebecois is essentially a vote for another Conservative government.

"What I'm saying is, it's time for Canadians to make a choice between two governing parties," Ignatieff said.

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On Sunday the Green Party conference considered a motion which on the face of it wished the Green Party to declare that the clear words of the Criminal Code which criminalize polygamy, should be change to remove the criminalization of polygamy.

The Green Party voted down a motion to push to decriminalize polygamy Sunday morning.

The vast majority of over 300 members voted against the motion, with 82% against and 18% in favour.

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An honest assessment of where all the parties stand after the coalition and budget

I am going to try and take off my partisan hat and put myself in the shoes of each of the opposition parties following the coalition and budget.

Green Party:

The Green Party got a small win during the coalition debate in the sense Elizabeth May got back in the news despite having no seats in parliament. They may have taken a huge loss because their very existence depends on events outside of their control. Perhaps there was some excitement that a Senate seat and cabinet position would be good for the Green Party. This scenario though, points to the very difficult choice for Greens about Elizabeth May as leader. I appreciate this post, and my response is the Green Party today is not the Green Party of Jim Harris under Elizabeth May. The move to the far left (scrapping NAFTA for example) and the frequent endorsements of the Liberals and Stephane Dion make it impossible for any "Progressive Conservative", "Reformer" or Libertarian like myself to support the Green Party today. What was once seen as a party that represented at least the potential to have some of the grassroots excitement that was generated under the Reform Party (that I joined at 14) now seems like nothing more than a special interest group trying to advance Elizabeth May's career and the Liberal Party over their own principles and candidates. I am always up for a beer and I have many friends in the Green Party that I enjoy debating with. In my opinion during the last election Greens such as the candidate in my riding were sold out when May did this deal with Dion. Her comments during the last election about strategic voting in my view were unfair to her own candidates, party and supporters. For example in Newmarket-Aurora, everyone in the community knows it is a two horse race between Liberals and Conservatives. By advocating strategic voting to stop Harper, Glenn Hubbers was held out to try while Green voters were encouraged to back Tim Jones. Tim Jones is a good man, but does not have the environmental credentials and green lifestyle that my friend Glenn Hubbers offers. I think what May did to her candidates such as Hubbers was nothing short of a stabbing in the back. I was always an advocate for including the Greens in the debate for the purpose of enhancing democracy but I think that huge opportunity for Greens was wasted when May seemed to spend more time attacking Harper and defending Dion than promoting her own party's platform to Canadians who are still unfamiliar with what they stand for. I think that also hurt the Green Party because they still haven't broken out of the shell of being an environment only party in the minds of most Canadians. After this unite the left movement, I am buying more into the David Suzuki argument about the Greens. If you are serious about the environment you can probably accomplish more by joining the Conservative Party, Liberal Party or as a single Coalition Party on the left. If May had got her cabinet post, I honestly believe it would have been more likely the Greens would have got tarnished with the Liberal brush as oppose to getting any tangible benefits that would present an argument for the survival of the Green Party. Would Jim Harris or David Chernushenko consider running as a candidate for the Conservatives as a way to combine sound fiscal policy with environmental concern? At this point it is a myth that anyone on the right is considering the Green Party as an option. Greens do not draw their voters from the right and left; they further split the left vote with the NDP, Liberals and in Quebec the Bloc. Even if you stand for proportional representation and democratic reform, how do you advance that goal by supporting a coup using technicalities of a first past the post system and having your leader appointed to the unelected senate?

Greens now face two choices. Keep May as leader because she increased votes in the last election, got into the debates, got serious media coverage but seems committed to herself personally as oppose to the party at large. Otherwise turf her as leader and then what? I am not sure if this party can survive in the long term. I think odds are more likely that we will see a merger of the left than an elected Green in parliament down the road. If May is offered a Senate seat in the future she should take it and never give it up. She has no chance of beating Peter MacKay in Central Nova during an election campaign and it would probably still have to be a monumental achievement for her to win in any other riding. For Greens the question now is are they still relevant? What is our argument to get into the debates next time given that they lost their only seat in parliament? Will proportional representation ever happen regardless of what party controls a majority or minority government? If they cannot come up with good answers, the risk is either Conservative majorities due to vote splitting or a two party first past the post system by merging the left at least among the 3 federalist parties to get that "62% majority" for real.

Greens need to get out of bed with the Liberals and come up with a reason why voters and the media should take them seriously going forward. To do that, there needs to be an honest and aggressive debate on Elizabeth May's leadership and the overall platform and direction of the party following the last election. The Green image I have right now is tree huggers who stand for outdated Kyoto and stopping Harper. As a Conservative, I do not see them as an alternative where perhaps they would have been my second choice under Mr. Jim Harris.

NDP:

The NDP and Jack Layton have clearly become a joke. The coalition for Jack Layton was a huge opportunity to take advantage of Liberal weakness to advance his party's standing. Stephane Dion was desperate to avoid being a question in trivial pursuit as one of the few Liberal leaders never to become Prime Minister. He was willing to sell his soul to the union movement and separatists for the chance to be Prime Minister. The move cost Dion his job, but Layton his credibility. After pushing the coalition for months, Layton finds himself with nothing to show for those efforts except an endorsement Liberals will use against him in the next election campaign. Gone are the dreams of Jack and Olivia in cabinet. So much for the hope that various unions would be running Ottawa. Gone are the days when the NDP can take advantage of weak Liberal leadership, a sponsorship scandal and a record of abstaining. If they couldn't become official opposition under those past scenarios, who seriously thinks it will ever happen now? Jack Layton running to be Prime Minister??? If only he would win over 100 more seats. The NDP cannot even say anymore that they want to make parliament work after Jack Layton declared he would vote against a budget that he had not even seen. In Ontario there is a provincial leadership race going on. You wouldn't know it from the press and it would be impossible to name any of the candidates without the support of Google or the provincial NDP website. Pandering to union interests during the York University strike for leadership purposes showed exactly what the NDP stands for. This is not the party of students, the poor or working class people. It is a party hijacked by the union movement and as a result incapable of expanding past their fringe party status. Even during the pro-coalition rallies, buses of union workers were sent in to counter the public opposition to the coalition with no success. A few years ago Buzz Hargrove was kicked out of the NDP for advocating strategic voting. Will Jack Layton now be kicked out for proving that Buzz was right? After spending months promoting the Liberals as a better alternative to Stephen Harper's Conservatives, how is he now going to stop strategic voting in the next election?

Going forward the NDP, like the Greens might have signed their own death warrant with the coalition. The coalition showed that in the past the leftist parties were splitting the vote and as a result Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party were winning key seats and ultimately the election. Jack Layton has racked up a massive debt for the NDP promoting how great things would be under a Liberal Prime Minister. Elizabeth May has squandered historic media attention and inclusion in the debates to promote Liberals as well. I think if they are serious about Canada being a left wing or progressive country; the best thing both of these parties could do is fold and merge with the Liberals. Obviously from the Conservative perspective that would present a major challenge; but the reality is that both the Greens and NDP are spinning their wheels and are virtually irrelevant today in Canadian politics. Policies like adding a "buy Canadian" provision to the stimulus package, pulling all troops out of Afghanistan immediately or raising taxes on corporations during a recession just highlight their fringe status capped at a maximum of 20% of the total vote. Jack Layton is a nice guy, but it may also be time to consider his leadership. Thomas Mulcair, David Miller, various Western NDP Premiers and Buzz Hargrove will likely be next in line once NDP supporters realize what Jack has done to their party.

Bloc Quebecois:

I don't completely understand Quebec politics and that province in particular is always volatile with their voting intentions. Something that looks firm today, can switch on a dime. At one point it looked like there would be a massive Conservative breakthrough in Quebec. The last election showed that was not the case as Conservatives basically stayed stagnent while provincially the ADQ was basically wiped out as a viable party. Conservatives under Harper who looked to appease Quebec for that majority now seem to be focused on Ontario and BC basically throwing in the towel in Quebec. Liberals who were blown out of Quebec following the sponsorship scandal seem to be making some kind of comeback under Ignatieff in the province. The Bloc that at one time seemed irrelevant still seems capable of holding at least 50 of the provinces 75 seats. Jean Charest who was once the champion of federalism and respected by all parties and premiers now seems to be isolated by his provincial counterparts with bridges burned with the party media reports suggest he might be interested in leading one day. While Gilles Duceppe saw the coalition as a huge win for separation and the Bloc's fortunes in Quebec, ultimately also resulted in a strong showing for Pauline Marois strengthening her leadership in the PQ - the position that ultimately Mr. Duceppe dreams of holding one day. The ADQ are now without a leader. Charest holds a razor thin majority. Marois is now basically the Premier in waiting. Duceppe and the Bloc now find themselves not so much interested in attacking the Conservatives who might be in serious trouble in Quebec but defending their seats against Michael Ignatieff; the Liberal leader who seems to be making a comeback in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc.

The coalition gave the Bloc two key benefits. One, Harper's attacks on the coalition, separation and the Bloc as a party may have hurt his chances and made his seats vulnerable. Second, gone are the days when Liberals and Conservatives can say "all the Bloc can do is oppose". Dion and the Liberals offered Duceppe and his separatist party the chance to serve in the Canadian government. That is proof that they can do more than simply oppose and federalism is weaker because of this power grab by Liberals. On the negative side, the Bloc must now attack a leader and party that no too long ago they endorsed to lead a coalition. If Michael Ignatieff is to become the Prime Minister through an election, that is only possible if he makes a major breakthrough in Quebec. Two months ago it looked like the Bloc would have been able to extort a kings random from the Liberals, bringing back pork to their ridings and province and ultimately strengthening their hand to perhaps 60 seats in the province. Today they will be lucky to hold what they have and will most likely drop seats in the next election.

Canadians are going to go to the polls likely in June or the fall. Quebecors will now have to ask themselves how they want to be represented in the federal parliament. Do they want to be important to the Conservative Party or the Liberal Party? Do they want to continue minority governments by sending a large Bloc of MPs to Ottawa that are disliked by the rest of the country as evidenced in the coalition polls and considered taboo to ever joining the government formally? Will Jean Charest attempt to bridge his differences with Harper or will he continue his attacks that like with Danny Williams will ultimately hurt his leverage with the government of the day in Ottawa? Will Gilles Duceppe lead the BQ in the next election or is retirement a potential option now that his PQ dreams have been smashed? I predict the Bloc will ultimately remain a force in Quebec holding at least a majority of Quebec seats. I also predict that they will drop some seats in the next election, likely around Montreal to the Liberals. Has support for separation actually increased? If not, again the Bloc finds themselves forced to justify their existence in federal politics.

The Liberal Party

I am not sure if the coalition was a blind power grab, or a well executed strategy but either way things have worked out well for the Liberals since the coalition and budget. The first positive for Liberals is that Stephane Dion is gone. Prior to this coalition proposal, he was going to hang around as leader until a new leader was chosen in June. A full leadership race had the potential to divide the party and place further financial pressure as leadership candidates sucked up donations that might have otherwise gone to the Liberal party's campaign budget. When the Liberals began to collapse in the polls, MPs got nervous and decided to part with any kind of grassroots process and appoint Michael Ignatieff as leader through a caucus vote. Once we came back in January, Liberals had a new leader and a fresh start.

Before we look at Michael Ignatieff, let us remember that there are still major issues in the Liberal Party itself. The party remains broke and at a huge financial disadvantage compared to the Conservatives as last year's fundraising numbers demonstrate. The Liberal Party being in debt and still not raising much in fundraising will ultimately have an impact on when the next election is. Second, the lack of a leadership race means that Liberal candidates will not become as well known as perhaps they became during the last contest. Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae will play roles in the new shadow cabinet, but the party did not get a chance to debate any firm policy platforms or a direction for their party. I cannot remember the last time that the Liberals have had any kind of policy convention since losing power. There are also still huge mountains for Liberals to climb regionally in this country. While Ignatieff seems to be making roads in Quebec, the entire West including BC remains a problem for them as does most of the rural ridings. Ontario is a must win for Liberals and so far gains have been modest for them since Iggy became leader.

While there are still some problems in the Liberal Party, Conservatives can no longer underestimate their opponent. Michael Ignatieff is clearly not Stephane Dion and he does not have any baggage from the sponsorship scandal or feuds between Martin and Chretien. He will not run on a carbon tax and there is not an obvious negative route that Conservatives can rely on in the next campaign. He has managed to unite his caucus and stop harmful leaks that in the past have undercut previous Liberal leaders. There is no question that the media attention he has recieved has been Obamalike. So far he has received a free ride from the Conservative Party. He has increased Liberal poll numbers at least during his honeymoon. The economy only helps him gain momentum going forward as Liberals cheerlead for a depression to help their own political fortunes. Ignatieff is much better in press conferences, speeches and during Question Period than Stephane Dion. I do not think he has set Canada on his fire with his leadership at this point, but I do think he represents a credible alternative to the government and unlike Dion it is not hard to picture him as Prime Minister unfortunately.

Michael Ignatieff has been off to a great start but the honeymoon will end. Polls may present an optimal time for him to call an election, but can the Liberal Party afford one? He played the coalition well, but at some point will he look like Dion abstaining and supporting Conservative legislation only to criticize it later? How long can he prop up the government without looking weak? How long can he hope for the economy to get worse before it looks like he is putting his own political interests ahead of the country? When is he going to take firm positions on the issues? He signed a coalition document and was later against it. He was a huge supporter of the Iraq war only to write a New York Times piece saying he was wrong. He called the Israel actions in Lebanon a war crime but in the Gaza conflict changed his position and said Israel was acting in self defense. He first introduced the idea of a carbon tax but is now one of the Liberals pretending Dion and his platform never happened. He praised George W. Bush and supported using “torture” in the war on terror only to now turn around and demand Omar Khadar come home. He told his MPs to support the budget, allowed Newfoundland MPs to oppose the budget and now says he opposes it and that it isn’t working fast enough yet allowed it to pass on several votes. In the past he has supported extending the Afghanistan mission and also Quebec as a nation. Will those positions hold firm against internal Liberal opposition? Leadership is not an easy quality and it will be interesting to see what happens when eventually Mr. Ignatieff is forced to put his vision and positions on the record. At this point it is not clear what he stands for. His biggest asset is that he is not Stephane Dion and in some circles he is not Stephen Harper.

Stephen Harper vs. Michael Ignatieff will be a battle for the ages. There are many similarities between the two men. I suspect that one way or the other we are looking at an election between June and the fall. The impact of the budget and the state of the economy will play a major role in determining who wins that election. Before Liberals are ready though, they must rebuild their finances, improve their standing in Quebec, BC and Ontario, reignite their organization and base, allow Canadians to get to know their new leader and find a platform and vision that redefines Liberalism in Canada. To Ignatieff’s credit he could have just taken power immediately through the coalition. Instead he has decided to do things the hard way – but the right way. Liberals are excited again but should be cautious. There is still a lot of work that must be done before they can realistically expect to get power again through an election campaign.

Conservative Party:

This is a column all by itself and will be my next post.

Thanks for reading…

-Darryl

What do the Separatists have to say about this coalition

Liberal and NDP supporters it is not to late to change your mind and avoid making the biggest mistake you will ever see in a generation. This is your warning. The future of your party is at stake, the future of your country is at stake. This coalition is dangerous and wrong for Canada, wrong for the economy and wrong for democracy. Partisanship or principle, this is what defines individuals in politics. Mr. Dion, I think you have now miscalculated. The time is now for Dion to resign immediately, not elected Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
-Darryl

***

"The fact that the Bloc got Stephane Dion to sign a political accord in which it is explicitly written that he undertakes to act in partnership with Canadians and the Quebecois should bring a smile to the face of many sovereigntists,"

BQ Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau a key player in the 1995 referendum campaign

“I think every gain we’re making here is good for Quebec, and what’s good for Quebec is good for a sovereign Quebec.”

“Layton and Dion won’t change; they’re federalists and I’m a sovereigntist,”

BQ Leader Gilles Duceppe who would be the second largest partner in this proposed coalition government

***

'We can see clearly that this country doesn't work.'

"The only solution is to get out of there, and choose our sovereignty,"

"If the Bloc Quebecois can get things for Quebec while Jean Charest is on his knees. . ."

"It's Quebec that will come out the winner,"

PQ Leader Pauline Marois who supports this proposed coalition government

***

View of out West

"put Canada first and stop the nonsense."
-Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach who does not support this coalition agreement

"I do not want my Canada beholden in a formal way to a veto from separatists. I don't want that. I don't want it for my province. I don't want it for my country,"
-Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall who does not support this coalition agreement

***

Conservatives united to stop this coup. Harper defends himself in Question Period

“The deal that the leader of the Liberal party [Stéphane Dion] has made with the separatists is a betrayal of the voters of this country, a betrayal of the best interests of our economy, a betrayal of the best interests of our country and we will fight it with every means we have,”

"Not a single member of this House, not even a member of the Bloc, received a mandate to have a government in which the separatists would be part of the coalition,"

"Mr. Speaker, if the leader of the Opposition thinks he has support for this, he should have the confidence to take this to the people of Canada, who will reject it."

"My friends, such an illegitimate government would be a catastrophe, for our democracy, our unity and our economy, especially at a time of global instability,"

“Mr. Speaker the highest principle of Canadian democracy is that if you want to be Prime Minister, you get your mandate from the Canadian people, not from Quebec separatists.”

"From MacDonald and Laurier, to Diefenbaker and Trudeau, Liberals and Conservatives have often disagreed, but Mr. Speaker there is one thing we should never disagree on, and the Leader of the Liberal Party is betraying the best interests and the best traditions of his own party if he thinks he can make a deal with Quebec separatists."

"Mr. Speaker in an internal letter today the BQ leader says the coalition the will take control of control of the administration of the federal state. We will have the creation of a mechanism of permanent consultation empowering the BQ on every matter of importance notably concerning the adoption of the budget. This Prime Minister, this government, this party has never and will never sign a document like that."

"Mr. Speaker, today the leader of the Parti Quebecois says this arrangement shows the need for sovereignty. The Bloc members applauded when I quoted her. If the Liberal Party believes in the country he will walk away from this document and admit is the worst mistake the Liberal Party has made in its history."
-Elected Prime Minister Stephen Harper

***

Full debate from Question Period today. Imagine if the questions Dion will face as PM if we actually have to sit in opposition after winning an election a few short weeks ago.
-Darryl

Potential Liberal-Socialist-Separatist Cabinet posts

Here are my predictions for Canada's new government:

Something for Governor General Michaëlle Jean to consider before deciding to call an election...
-Darryl


The Ministry

The Right Honourable Jean Chretien (Liberal appointed through the senate as co-founder of new party)
Prime Minister of Canada

The Right Honourable Ed Broadbent (NDP appointed through the senate as co-founder of new party)
Deputy Prime Minister of Canada

The Honourable Elizabeth May (Green Liberal appointed through the senate)
Leader of the Government in the Senate and Minister of the Environment

The Honourable Jack Layton (NDP)
Minister of Finance

The Honourable Gilles Duceppe (BQ)
Minister of Foreign Affairs

The Honourable Dawn Black (NDP)
Minister of National Defence

The Honourable Irwin Cotler (LIB)
Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada

The Honourable Stephane Dion (LIB)
Minister of National Revenue

The Honourable Denis Coderre (LIB)
Minister of Veterans Affairs

The Honourable Charlie Angus (NDP)
Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development and Federal Interlocutor for Métis and Non-Status Indians

The Honourable John McCallum (LIB)
Minister of International Trade

The Honourable Pat Martin (NDP)
President of the Treasury Board

The Honourable Thomas Mulcair (NDP)
Minister of Labour

The Honourable Yves Lessard (BQ)
Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development

The Honourable Bernard Bigras (BQ)
Minister of International Cooperation

The Honourable Michael Ignatieff (LIB)
Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities

The Honourable Bob Rae (NDP/LIB)
Minister of Industry

The Honourable Christiane Gagnon (BQ)
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Minister for La Francophonie

The Honourable Ujjal Dosanjh (LIB/NDP)
Leader of the Government in the House of Commons

The Honourable Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac (BQ)
Minister of Public Safety

The Honourable Ralph Goodale (LIB)
Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and Minister for the Canadian Wheat Board

The Honourable Ruby Dhalla (LIB)
Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism

The Honourable Scott Brison (LIB)
Minister of Public Works and Government Services

The Honourable Michel Guimond (BQ)
Minister of Canadian Heritage and Official Languages

The Honourable Olivia Chow (NDP)
Minister of Health

The Honourable Justin Trudeau (LIB)
Minister of Natural Resources

The Honourable Dominic LeBlanc (LIB)
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans

The Honourable Ken Dryden (LIB)
Minister of State (Sport)

The Honourable Marc Garneau (LIB)
Minister of (Science and Technology)

The Honourable Martha Hall Findlay (LIB)
Minister of State (Satus of Women)

The Honourable Buzz Hargrove (NDP/LIB Appointed through Senate)
Minister of State and Chief Government Whip

Anyone else have any predictions they want to share??? God help this nation if this coalition takes power.
-Darryl

We now have a two party system in Canada

People complain that Canadian politics is not exciting. Today, like when the PC and Alliance parties decided to unite is a game changing moment in Canadian political history regardless of the outcome of these coalition talks. While I do not expect that we will see NDP, BQ, Green and Liberal candidates decide not to run against each other in the next election; the game has fundamentally changed just by what we now know from talks that have taken place between the opposition parties.

1. Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent are in negotiations to build an NDP/Liberal coalition that will need the support of the Bloc Quebecois.

2. By engaging in these talks at the highest levels (Dion, Layton) it is clear that both leaders agree they share a common agenda. Both are comfortable either bringing the Bloc Quebecois (a party that supports breaking up our country) into the Canadian government or allowing Duceppe to extort the government in order to maintain support on confidence matters.

3. For at least some MPs it is OK overthrowing the will of the Canadian voters and installing a Prime Minister who is not even elected by the grassroots members within his party. I am not sure if this coalition will happen, but I do know that all day Dion's caucus has been planning to get rid of him and broadcasting it to the media. How can he now lead regardless of what happens in the next couple of weeks.

4, The Liberals and Greens already had an alliance during the election and Dion even got Elizabeth May's endorsement.

5. Right now the only common agenda known among this potential coalition government is that they are united in wanting their subsidies, they want to go on a spending spree and call it a stimulus, they oppose Harper and every policy decision he makes, they want power, and they all financially cannot afford to fight an election right now.

With regards to these meetings, what is going on is not transparent. Grassroots members concerns are not taken into account. Most MPs are out of the loop and have no say. We have no idea what is being promised in these negotiations. Media do not have access. Do these arguments sound familiar? Wasn't this all initially about Harper using a budget bill to interfere with democracy? Liberals putting together a coup with socialists and separatists is what is best for Canadians according to the opposition. Brokering an alliance one week into parliament to seize power is what is needed to protect Canadian democracy?

I am not sure if it is Stephen Harper or just simply the fact there is one party on the center-right and 4 on the left; but it is clear this minority government is not going to work. Stephen Harper and the Conservatives cannot work with the opposition parties and get anything done despite this recession or potential depression. While a coalition between the Bloc-NDP-Liberals may last in the short term, rival demands will make it complicated to stick together. The only possibility of a long term coalition is if Prime Minister Dion's approval ratings are beyond low, all parties remain broke and the worsening economic situation drives up Conservative numbers. This will unite the opposition for no other purpose than to avoid the people through an election and to keep power away from the Conservatives. The West who just got in will be locked out again thanks to a backroom deal between the Liberal Party of Toronto backed by the Separatist party from Quebec. That is not in the best interest of Canadians and I do not see how this whole situation is good for unity.

It is unfortunate, but we probably need an election despite the cost and timing. Canadians have to choose between giving Conservatives a majority government to deal with the economy or otherwise provide a mandate to this madness with the left wing coalition. Conservatives won the election and we cannot maintain power let alone get any legislation passed as is evident today. The left is united and no longer have credibility attacking each other. Let us decide based on the new two party system of Conservatives vs. the Green Liberal Socialist Separatist Party. Regrettably if Canadians want their government to get anything done for them it will require an election and a majority. Regardless of if this coalition forms and regardless of how long this parliament lasts it is quite clear that nothing will get accomplished because of partisanship from all sides of the House unless attitudes change in a hurry. The Governor General should not delay the inevitable and simply allow this government to go to the people once it is defeated rather than play these games. Any other solution at this point is just lost time and wasted taxpayer dollars with no action on the economy or any other issue of the day.

Based on the events of today, everything has changed and this parliament simply cannot function any longer. The sooner there is an election the better. The left might as well unite under one banner as irreversibly each of their individual brands no longer have credibility in Ottawa. While the day was exicting, regular Canadians are the big loser today after all of this political positioning. Shame on all politicians for that.

-Darryl

Breaking News: Conservatives back down

Update: It looks like we are not out of the woods yet. Opposition still threatening to topple the government due to a "lack of stimulus package included in the bill". Coalition talks are continuing. Liberal plotting to remove Dion and replace him with Ignatieff (or Goodale or Rae) still ongoing.

Update 2: It looks like the coalition talks are ongoing but now that the public financing portion has been separated from Monday's bill it only raises the stakes that much higher. Liberals, NDP and the Bloc could proceed with coalition talks and vote against the government Monday due to it not containing a stimulus package. They could be taking a huge risk though as there is no guarantee the Governor General will allow the official opposition a chance to form a coalition. Unintended consequences could be a snap election caused by the opposition meaning they would feel the wrath of the people for making the stimulus package a 300 million dollar election campaign over the holidays. Allowing the bill to pass on Monday could expose them as being more concerned about their own election financing then their argument about an economic stimulus. Sounds like it is still a tough choice for the opposition parties. Personally I hope that if we are defeated on Monday, Jean just simply calls an election so that the people can sort out this mess - not Broadbent, Chretien and the separatists.

Update 3: (From CBC)

The federal Liberals plan to introduce a motion in the House of Commons on Monday declaring non-confidence in the minority Conservative government and proposing a governing coalition, the Canadian Press is reporting. Emissaries from the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois have been holding talks about forming a new government should Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority fall.

More to come...

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/545220

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5j-vaw1H_MNCsBEEmjJaOuSu_dRSQ

Potential Compromise?

There might be one easy way to get out of this. Cut all public subsidies following the next election while paying out the current subsidy from the last election. Would that be acceptable to all sides?

On the coalition front it is not being revealed in the media that Ed Broadbent and Jean Chretien are trying to broker a coalition government. Would Canadians accept Liberals taking power over public election financing subsidies by joining forces with a party that wants to break up our nation?

-Darryl

My predictions: Canadian Federal Election 2008

National Prediction:

CPC: 136, LIB: 85, NDP: 35, BQ: 50, IND: 2, GREEN 0
(155 required for a majority government)

Conservative minority with Stephen Harper as Prime Minister

***Election Turnout will be 56%

York Region:

Liberal 3, Conservative 3

Conservative pick ups in Newmarket-Aurora and Thornhill

***

Conservative: 136

BC: 22, Alberta: 28, Sask 13; Manitoba 8; North 1; Ontario 47; Quebec 9; NB 4; NS 3; PEI 0; NFLD 1

Key predictions:

-Gary Lunn will hold his seat in BC

-Donna Cadmen will win her seat for the Conservatives

-Greens will lose their only seat to the Conservatives in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

-Conservatives will win every seat in Alberta

-Conservatives will win all but one in Saskatchewan

-Conservatives will hold their results in Manitoba

-Lisa Raitt will defeat Garth Turner, Newmarket-Aurora will go blue. Other key Ontario wins will come in Mississauga, Oakville, London West and two rural seats Brant and Huron Bruce.

-Gains will come in Ontario and BC. Will take at least one loss in Quebec.

-Michael Fortier will be defeated

-Peter MacKay will defeat Elizabeth May in Nova Scotia

-Robert Thibault will be defeated in West Nova

-Potential gains for the Conservatives in New Brunswick and Nunavut

-Fabian Manning will win his seat in Newfoundland. Conservatives will be shut out of PEI again.

-No wins for Conservatives in Montreal or Toronto

***

Liberal 85

BC 5; ALB: 0; SASK 1; MAN 3; North 1; ONT 42; QUE 14; PEI 4; NB 5; NFLD 5; NS 5

Key Predictions:

-Will lose seats in Ontario and BC

-Justin Trudeau will be elected in Quebec as will Marc Garneau

-Will not win a seat in Alberta

-Will win most seats in Toronto and Montreal

-Gerard Kennedy will be defeated

-Ralph Goodale will win his riding

-Will make a pick up in Newfoundland and potentially elsewhere in Atlantic Canada

NDP 35

BC 9; ALB 0; SASK 0; MAN 3; North 1; ONT 17; QUE 1; NB 1; NS 2; NFLD 1; PEI 0

-Jack Layton and Olivia Chow will win their ridings

-Peggy Nash will hold her seat

-Look for potential NDP gains in BC, Northern Ontario, Beaches in Toronto, Newfoundland and potentially Atlantic Canada

-No additonal seats in Quebec

-Will not beat Ed Broadbent's record or form official opposition

Bloc Quebecois 50

QUE: 50

-Will take out Conservative Minister Jean Pierre Blackburn

-Will defeat Conservative Minister Michael Fortier

-Will be defeated by at least 2 Liberals including Justin Trudeau

-Will remain a strong force in Quebec

Independent Candidates 2

NS 1; QUE 1

-Former Conservative Bill Casey will win his seat in Nova Scotia

-Independent Andre Arthur will win his riding in Quebec where he is not facing a Conservative opponent

Green Party: 0

Canada: No Seats

-Elizabeth May will lose to Peter MacKay

-Greens will do best in Guelph and in Blair Wilson's BC riding

-At least one second place showing but no seats

PREDICTIONS FOR YORK REGION:

York Simcoe: Conservative - Peter Van Loan
Newmarket-Aurora: Conservative - Lois Brown
Thornhill: Conservative - Peter Kent
Oak Ridges Markham: Liberal - Lui Temelkovski
Markham-Unionville: Liberal - John McCallum
Richmond Hill: Liberal - Bryan Wilfert

What is at stake for each party and their leader Tuesday

Today electionprediction.org made their predictions on all 308 ridings and the outcome looks like this:

Conservative 125
Liberal 94
NDP 36
BQ 51
Independent 2 (Arthur, Casey)
Green 0

Democratic Space has not made their final predictions, but right now their numbers are showing:

Conservative 128
Liberal 92
NDP 34
BQ 52
Independent 2
Green 0

Finally voteforenvironment.ca is currently predicting the following:

Conservative 131
Liberal 85
NDP 38
BQ 52
Independent 2
Green 0

Average out all three of those numbers and even be optimistic and add +/- ten seats to the Conservative total and it is clear that we are likely headed into minority government with Stephen Harper remaining Prime Minister. A majority is possible if there is a Thanksgiving shift but that seems unlikely. Equally unlikely would be a Dion minority because it would require a dramatic voting shift from the Conservatives and other parties on the left. The Conservatives currently hold 127 seats in the House of Commons. It looks like the results of the 2008 election are more or less going to keep things the same. Taking these numbers as fact for argument sake, what would these results mean for all the national parties and their leaders October 15?

Conservative Party and Stephen Harper:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper called this election and early in the campaign it seemed like a majority was possible and likely. When the election was called, economic concerns primarily had to do with a high Canadian dollar, high gasoline prices and job losses in the manufacturing sector. By mid campaign, the price of oil dropped as did the Canadian dollar. South of the border, a credit crunch, banking and housing crisis and massive government deficits led to an economic crisis in the US. Stocks around the world plunged. In a globalized economy banks in Europe and to a lesser degree Canada found themselves caught up in these sub prime mortgages through other investments. Banks in all of the major G7 nations were forced to take action. In America we saw mergers, a 700 billion dollar bail out plan and interest rate cuts. England nationalized some of their major banks. Iceland found themselves in trouble and took out a loan from Russia. The overall impact of these issues have not just hurt the Western world, oil prices falling means less revenue for the OPEC producing nations, Russia and Canada. Americans trying to pay off debt and reducing their spending means nations such as China and India have less of a market to sell their manufactured goods to. The overall slow down means that issues such as the environment and poverty could be pushed aside while world leaders focus on the economy. Many saw this disaster coming but few expected it to hit this soon. The crisis has derailed Senator John McCain's campaign South of the border and Prime Minister Stephen Harper found himself in the storm as the incumbent in Canada. Most of these challenges are the result of global forces and not any specific action on the part of the government of Canada. Our banking system and economy got strong reviews by organizations such as the IMF for being best prepared to handle this potential worldwide recession. The next couple of years could be challenging and if Stephen Harper remains Prime Minister, many tough decisions will have to be made. He will have a renewed mandate and likely another two years to govern, but will likely have to find a coalition partner (abstaining Liberals) to get anything passed. Otherwise it will be a constant game of chicken on confidence votes meaning the House will be very partisan and the next campaign will stop the parties from working together constructively to get anything done. Fortunately for Stephen Harper; the Liberals will likely face a leadership race; the Greens will not have a seat; the NDP spent the maximum on this campaign and will be broke and in no position to fight another one in the near future; and the BQ is poised to make gains and will not be willing to risk them by going to the polls early. The turnout and outcome will also likely be a clear signal that the public would have no appatite for another election any time soon.

Stephen Harper has said he will step down if the party is defeated. Any scenerio where he is the Prime Minister will mean that he is staying on as leader of the Conservative Party. While Conservatives have every reason to celebrate victory on Tuesday night, afterward the party may want to reflect on what is stopping a majority government if it is infact a minority. A policy convention is set for November and the Conservatives made modest and responsible promises during the campaign that will be possible to keep. The global economic crisis will give Harper an opportunity to show leadership on the world stage. The likely election of Barack Obama should make George Bush a thing of the past in Canadian election campaigns. The mission in Afghanistan will be set to end in 2011. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have signalled a new approach to the environment meaning that in the future an agreement can take place that will include China, India and the United States. Stephen Harper did make a committment to visit China and more exposure on the world stage will only improve Stephen Harper's image. A free trade deal with the EU is possible and it is quite possible that we will need a strong leader to defend NAFTA and the Arctic over the next few years. While there will be several opportunities, there are also threats on the horizon as well. Any kind of recession or worse will hurt the government in power. Opposition parties will look at polls and technically could pull the trigger at any time. A coalition on the left is not out of the question. A new Liberal leader will likely put up more of a challenge than Stephane Dion.

If Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets the opportunity to select a new cabinet, it will be interesting to see who ends up in it. Will there be representation in the North? Newfoundland? PEI? Toronto? Montreal? Vancouver? Is there potential for new Conservative stars should someone like Lisa Raitt get elected in Halton or Peter Kent in Thornhill? Will there be any cabinet casualties in this election? Will Maxime Bernier get another chance? Any surprise senators or floor crossers?

This election is probably going to bring results similar to what Conservative had after the 2006 election. 2004 brought about gains as the right was finally elected. 2006 gave the Conservatives a taste of minority power. 2008 will likely give Harper a chance to demonstrate leadership as we will see a new President in Washington and a new set of challenges on the global agenda. Unless a majority looks guaranteed, it is unlikely Conservatives will be in any rush to get to the polls. What will Harper do different this time to ensure that majority next time?

Liberal Party - Stephane Dion

Stephane Dion has said he will try and stay on as leader even if his party loses, but I do not see how that would be possible. While most leaders are given two chances, Dion was a major liability for Liberals in this election. He was clearly not ready for the job and was really a compromise candidate at the Montreal convention. A loss will mean the knives will come out. Chretien and Martin people are still not united. Leadership contenders are already emerging. "Canada's national governing party" will be looking for a quick fix. Ultimately, unless Dion pulls off a surprise upset victory on Tuesday; I expect he will be quickly replaced.

Potential contenders:

Michael Ignatieff - Runner up last time. Harvard human rights professor. current deputy leader

Bob Rae - Former NDP Ontario Premier. Finished third in the last race. Foreign affairs critic.

Dalton McGuinty - Current Premier of Ontario. Distanced himself from carbon tax. Outsider but his brother already holds the federal seat.

Gerard Kennedy - Young and left leaning, but will he have a seat on Wednesday?

Justin Trudeau - Young and has the Trudeau last name. Will Liberals go for star power?

Ruby Dhalla - Strong in opposition, could be a strong female contender

Martha Hall Findlay - Will we see the return of the red bus?

Ralph Goodale - Last man standing in the West?

Marc Garneau - A career in the military and in space. Could he make gains in Quebec?

Frank McKenna - Perhaps a strong choice with the current economic crisis being front and center?

John Manley - Does the Liberal party need to move back to the center?

Scott Brison - If there is a leadership race, Brison is there.

Ken Dryden - Another star?

Dennis Coderre - Could he improve Liberal fortunes in Quebec?

Ujjal Dosanjh - From BC and could appeal to the West where Liberals will need to rebuild

For Liberals, no leader will be the magic bullet. Issues with raising cash, the loss of rural Canada, the situation in Alberta, Quebec and the Praries will have to be addressed. Declines will be likely in BC, Northern Canada and the 905 region around Toronto. Half of the Liberal caucus will come from Toronto with most of the remainder being from Montreal. Financially, many of the previous leadership contenders remain in debt. The party borrowed money to spend the maximum during this campaign. They will borrow again if there is another leadership race. The election return will be reduced if they secure less votes than last time. Liberals have still not recovered and adapted to election financing changes. The combination of all of these factors will lead to paralysis and likely a coalition partner for the Conservatives during the next session.

If Dion does in fact lose this race, Liberals need a new leader and time to adapt to the new realities of the Canadian political landscape. They need to improve their oganization. They need to rebuild in various regions of the country. They need a platform that moves the party back to the center and back into the mainstream with regular Canadians. Exploring a coalition on the left might also have to be talked about.

New Democratic Party - Jack Layton

This was Jack's big moment. At parliament's disolution, the NDP had 30 seats. If you look at all the numbers above, they will gain; but not in a huge way. It seems unlikely they will beat Ed Broadbent's total. It seems even less likely they will form the official opposition, let alone government. For the first time they spent the maximum and will now be in debt. They ran a lot of ads. They had the sponsorship scandal last time and 43 times that Dion abstained this time yet were unable to really take advantage and bury the Liberals. Reviews of the NDP campaign and Jack Layton's leadership and debate performance was strong. At the end of the day though, the NDP doesn't find itself much further ahead and as a result need to evaluate what they offer to the Canadian people.

Do they keep Jack Layton? He is more popular than the party but hasn't really taken them where they want to go. Thomas Mulcair, Buzz Hargrove and David Miller might be possible successors. The NDP will also be in no position to call another election due to their debt. This will make them think twice about playing chicken with the Liberals on confidence votes.

The NDP are unlikely to see major breakthroughs in Quebec. They might see gains elsewhere and a strong campaign might be enough to keep Jack Layton as leader for one more chance. Still after 60 years, the NDP has not demonstrated that they can form opposition or government, and may have to accept that a minority coalition is their only chance at power.

Green Party and Elizabeth May

This will be the most intersting party to watch after the election. They were in the debates, received mainstream media attention and they will likely earn 10% of the popular vote. May has gotten strong reviews for her leadership by some and many would argue the Greens were a true force in this election. Problem is, May will likely lose in Central Nova and the prospects for any seat pick ups elsewhere are not good. Blair Wilson will be defeated, meaning the Greens will have no MPs in the house and might have to fight for their right to be in the next debates all over again.

What is next for the Greens? Elizabeth May is sure to take heat for her strategic voting comments. At the same time, she took Greens to an all time high in this election. Next time around do not expect any kind of deals with the Liberals or anyone else. May might also be wise to find a riding where she has a chance to win.

The Greens will be the big winners on Tuesday night but could find themselves fading away on Wednesday due to their lack of representation in the House. The next major fight for them has to be proportional representation.

Bloc Quebecois and Gilles Duceppe

The BQ is on pace for 50 seats and will likely continue to block the prospects of a majority for either the Liberals or Conservatives for as long as they remain strong. Gilles Duceppe wants to be leader of the PQ, but must wait until after the next Quebec provincial election. The BQ will play a role in a minority parliament. Politically though, it will be tough for either the Liberals or the Conservatives to work with them. Frankly they caught a break in Quebec with the culture community's opposition to Harper. If this election puts them in a position of strength, it is unlikely they will want to go to the polls. This might make them a candidate for a coalition partner in the next parliament.

Harper's hopes for a majority come with the fall of the Bloc. The Bloc will not want to go to an election while they are weak and defending their role in Canada's parliament. Therefore it could be the BQ that brings stability to the next parliament.

The future of the Bloc will be determined by the next provincial race. Quebec is in a minority government and if the PQ is looking for a leader, Duceppe might get in the race for real this time. That would allow a successor for the federal wing of the movement; and possibly a new direction for the BQ under these Canadian political realities.

Prediction for the life of the next minority government:

One year and a few months. I think the first budget will pass with the government falling on the second budget in February 2010. That will leave enough time for any leadership races but not much time to get anything done in the next parliament.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

Top 10 Factors that will determine the election on Tuesday

Tonight I had thanksgiving dinner with my family and it was terrific. Politics came up at the dinner table as I am sure it will tomorrow and across the country in many people's homes. As we look at the polls on balance; Conservatives have ranged from 31-42. Liberals from 30-20. NDP from 15-25. Greens 8-12 and the Bloc consistently strong in Quebec. Some of the vote is volatile. I suspect a portion of the Conservative vote around the center makes up part of the undecided swing voters. The remainder of volatile votes seem to be between the left wing parties. The reality is a lot of stock is put into the national polls, but to be honest they have little impact on the overall results without factoring in the local ridings and geographic considerations of Canada. Our riding of Newmarket-Aurora will likely be an indicator of what is happening nationally in the general election.

Top 10 Factors that will determine the election outcome on Tuesday:

1. Ontario GTA and Nothern Ontario

The battleground of Ontario is going to decide who wins this election and a lot of it is split between the Conservatives, Liberals and some pockets of NDP support. In Toronto proper and Southern York Region, every riding is likely to go Liberal. Outside of Toronto however, the Liberals are in decline. In Toronto, I suspect Jack Layton, Olivia Chow and Peggy Nash will all hold their seats meaning Gerard Kennedy will be defeated. On a good day for the NDP, a couple more seats in Toronto's core might swing their way. In Windsor we will likely see NDP candidates hold their seats. Northern Ontario also looks strong for the NDP with some opportunities for a Conservative seat here and there due to vote splitting. The NDP will pick up seats such as Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing and ridings in Thunder Bay. Ottawa will be interesting as the Eastern part of the province is generally Conservative, but the city itself may send a Liberal, NDP and some Conservatives to parliament. Most of the rural ridings, Muskoka, Simcoe, Durham, Dufferin-Caledon, Brant and others will all be strong Conservative. Look for almost all Conservative incumbents hold on to their seats in Oshawa, St. Catherines, Burlington Peterborugh and elsewhere. The 905 and 519 is where the Conservatives have the best chances to pick up seats. Overall there is about 30 competitive seats in the province right now.

Ridings to watch in Ontario:

Halton
All eyes will be on this one until the results come in. Conservatives badly want to send Garth Turner packing, but will his digital democracy and maverick status help him in the riding? Conservative candidate and Toronto Port Authority CEO Lisa Raitt is giving him a good run for his money. Many pundits are predicting she will take the seat. A crucial seat for the Conservatives in the GTA.

Newmarket-Aurora
Belinda Stronach is leaving politics and this one is wide open. Lois Brown has a strong chance of beating Liberal Tim Jones and returning this seat back to the blue column. In the GTA, York Region and the crucial 905 area code. This will be a bellwether of the night elsewhere.

Oakville
Terence Young is putting up a strong Conservative challenge to Liberal Bonnie Brown. This riding, like Newmarket-Aurora is crucial to Conservative gains in the 905 area code.

Don Valley West
If the Conservatives win a seat in Toronto it will be in Don Valley West. John Tory lost in the provincial election here. John Carmichael is carrying the federal banner in a riding where Laureen Harper has visited and knocked on doors.

Oshawa
Currently held by Conservative Colin Carrie. A key riding that has been highly impacted by current economic conditions, especially in the auto sector.

Brampton West
Conservative Kyle Seeback might take this seat from Liberal Andrew Kania. The race is close and it is the former provincial riding of Health Minister Tony Clement

Thornhill
Peter Kent is a star candidate for the Conservatives but will it be enough to unseat Susan Kadis in this York Region 905 GTA riding?

Guelph
A by-election riding that could be a tight four way race between Conservative Gloria Kovach, Liberal Frank Valeriote, Green Mike Nagy and NDP Tom King. If the Green Party wins a seat in parliament, it will most likely be here. Kovach may come up the middle depending on how this vote splits.

Mississauga-Streetsville
Wajid Khan crossed the floor from the Liberals and joined the Conservatives. Will his constituents forgive him? Unlike David Emerson and Joe Comuzzi, Khan is facing re-election.

Mississauga-South
Harper has paid a lot of attention to this riding in particular. Hugh Arrison is expected to defeat Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo

Kitchener Centre
Liberal whip Karen Redman is trying to hang on against Conservative Stephen Woodworth.

Welland
Liberal John Maloney finds himself in a tough three way battle in this Southern Ontario riding. Any of the three parties could take it.

London West
Conservative Ed Holder has a good chance of taking this London seat from Liberal Sue Barnes. This is a crucial 519 riding to take.

Kenora
A tight three way race in Ontario's North. Conservative Greg Rickford has a good chance of knocking off Liberal Roger Valley. NDP also in this tight three way fight.

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Will NDP Carol Hughes defeat Liberal Brent St. Denis in the riding that includes my birth town of Kapuskasing in Northern Ontario?

Thunder Bay-Superior North
Joe Comuzzi crossed the floor from the Liberals and joined the Conservatives. Now that Comuzzi has retired, who is going to win this close three way race?

Thunder Bay-Rainy River
A close three way race in Northern Ontario. Last time less than 3000 votes separated the Conservative, NDP and Liberal seat. Currently the seat is held by Liberal Ken Boshcoff.

Trinity Spadina
Always a close race...is Olivia Chow's seat safe?

Parkdale High Park
Will Gerard Kennedy go down to Peggy Nash the NDP incumbent?

Beaches-East York
Can Marilyn Churley defeat Maria Minna and pull off a steal in Toronto for the NDP?

2. Quebec - Bloc Quebecois

A majority or minority will be determined by the strength of the Bloc Quebecois. Liberals will likely hold their current seats in Montreal and gain a seat with Justin Trudeau. Beyond that there is little prospect for gains, but a prospect for losses if the NDP vote increases in Montreal either resulting in a steal for the NDP (like Outremont) or a win for the BQ as a result of the split.
In Quebec City and rural Quebec, the battle is between the Conservatives and the Bloc. A bad day for the Conservatives and a minority government would mean staying with the same amount of seats or even losing a couple. A good day would be an ADQ breakthrough similar to what was witnessed in the provincial election. Gaining a net total of 5 seats in Quebec would be success for the Conservatives at this point. The cultural community has done its damage. The BQ is riding high in the polls despite separation not being an election issue. Jean Charest has not really helped us the way we assisted him in the provincial election. Harper did have a huge rally in Quebec today that might have an impact leading to a surprise or two. 10 seats last time was frankly a surprise. Let's hope Quebec has another good election day surprise for Conservatives this time as well.

Ridings to Watch in Quebec

Westmount-Ville-Marie
Liberal and former astronaut Marc Garneau should win this safe Liberal riding.

Papineau
Liberal Justin Trudeau is widely expected to defeat BQ MP Vivian Barbot

Outremont
Will NDP Thomas Mulcair keep his seat. Will his election lead to any more seats for the NDP in the city of Montreal?

Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Senator and Conservative Minister Michael Fortier will attempt to win a seat in this riding. Bloc MP Meili Faille is looking like she might hold the seat. Liberal Brigitte Legault is also running.

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
Independent Andre Arthur is expected to win this riding. The Conservatives have not fielded a candidate against Arthur and for the most part he votes Conservative. Could become important if a few seats separate Harper from a majority.

Beauce
Maxime Bernier should have no problem holding his seat here.

Jonquière-Alma
Conservative cabinet minister John Pierre Blackburn is in a tough fight to keep his own riding.

Quebec
A Bloc held riding in the area that is friendly to Conservatives. Myriam Taschereau is the local candidate and Stephen Harper held a riding here today.

Roberval-Lac Saint-Jean
Denis Lebel won this riding for the Conservatives in a by-election. Can he hold it from the Bloc in the general election given that turnout should be higher?

Ahuntsic
Liberal Eleni Bakopanos is trying to return to parliament against BQ incumbent Maria Mourani

3. British Columbia

BC along with Ontario and Quebec are the battlegrounds that will decide the outcome of this election, both in terms of the Prime Minister and the prospects of majority or minority. Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn is in some trouble and David Emerson is not running this time in Vancouver Kingsway. The province is interesting in that there is a three way race in many parts of the province. Having said that Liberals are falling and the NDP and Conservatives seem to have made some gains. With the exception of Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South, there are not many safe Liberal seats left. Conservatives and NDP are likely to at least hold what they have. Green Blair Wilson will likely not be re-elected as a Green MP in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. Gains in this province will come down to ridings like Surrey North where Conservative Donna Cadmen is in a tough three way race with no incumbant. Ontario and BC will likely produce more gains for the Conservatives at this point than will be found in Quebec.

Ridings in BC to watch:

Surrey North
Donna Cadmen's riding. Expect some attention here, but also a potential seat gain.

Newton-North Delta
Won by the Conservatives in 2004. Sandeep Pandher has a strong chance of taking it back from Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal.

Richmond
Liberal Raymond Chan has a good chance of being defeated by Conservative Alice Wong.

Vancouver Island North
Conservative John Duncan finds himself in a head to head fight with NDP incumbant Catherine Bell

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Is Conservative Gary Lunn in trouble???

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Is Liberal Keith Martin in any kind of trouble in this tight three way race???

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Green MP Blair Wilson will attempt to defend this seat under his new colours. This is the only current Green seat. Wilson is expected to drop it, most likely to Conservative John Weston.

North Vancouver
Liberal incumbant Don Bell is facing a tough challenge from Conservative Andrew Saxton.

Vancouver Centre
Will the NDP take out Liberal leadership contender Hedy Fry?

Vancouver Kingsway
What will happen in David Emerson's former riding? NDP seems to be leading right now.

Vancouver Quadra
Conservatives almost won this in the by-election. Can Deborah Meredith beat Joyce Murray this time around?

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Conservative Randy Camp will try and hold this seat from the NDP challenge.

4. Other regional representation and the rest of Canada

Every party would like to have representation in all parts of the country. For Liberals, this means a seat in Alberta, holding on to Ralph Goodale's seat, holding the few seats they have in BC, Manitoba and the North. Conservatives would like to see Fabian Manning retain his seat and avoid getting shut out of Newfoundland thanks to Danny Williams ABC campaign. A win in PEI with the seat of Egmont would be nice. Having Conservative representation in the North through winning the seat in Nunavut would also be a bonus. The Greens also want representation and outside of Guelph, their best chance is their leader in Central Nova against Peter MacKay. All of these seats will be important for positioning in the next election campaign.

Ridings to watch elsewhere in the country

Central Nova
Green leader Elizabeth May made a questionable decision to run in Central Nova. Conservative Minister and potential future Prime Minister Peter MacKay should take this riding, but it could get interesting. No Liberal is running here, but polls show a strong NDP showing as well.

West Nova
Conservative Greg Kerr has a great show at knocking off Liberal Robert Thibault.

Avalon
Fabian Manning is likely the only chance of the Conservative Party being sweeped from Newfoundland. Manning has stood up to Danny Williams in the past and is attempting to do so again. How successful was the ABC campaign? Will Newfoundland have a representative in the government? Both of those questions will be answered here.

Egmont
Best shot at a Conservative seat in PEI. Best shot at a representative inside government for PEI. Gail Shea will attempt to bring some blue to the island.

Fredericton
Won by Liberal Andy Scott who is leaving politics. Keith Ashfield has a strong chance of bringing this one to the Tories.

Madawaska-Restigouche
Another potential pickup in New Brunswick for the Conservatives. Liberal Jean Claude D'Amours will again face Jean Pierre Ouellet. Last time less than 1000 votes split this riding

Nunavut
Leona Aglukkaq has a good chance of winning this tight three way race. Nunavut's Premier has come out against the carbon tax and the Liberal incumbant is retiring. All three leaders have been here showing a tight three way race.

Saint Boniface
Liberal Raymond Simard could drop this Winnipeg area riding to Conservative Shelly Glover.

Churchill
The NDP might take this one from Liberal Tina Keeper now that their vote isn't split this time.

Wascana
Ralph Goodale's seat and the only Liberal won left in Saskatchewan

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Conservative incumbant Carol Skelton is leaving politics. She leaves a tough two way fight between Conservative Kelly Block and NDP Nettie Wiebe

Edmonton Center
Landslide Annie is gone. Don't count on this one going red. It was the last Liberal seat in Alberta. Conservative Laurie Hawn should have no problems with Anne McLellan no longer running.

4. Voter Turnout

I expect voter turnout. What will the turnout be and how will it impact the results. Some argue that it is harder to get your people to come out when you are in government. Others argue Liberal voters may stay home because of Dion. NDP supporters will likely turnout because they have a chance to form the opposition. Green supporters will likely turnout because their party has run a mainstream campaign. Conservatives can win a majority or lose. Liberals can win a minority or lose bad. Turnout will likely affect all of these things.

5. Green and the NDP party

The left is split and how well the NDP and Greens do, could cost the Liberals seats in many close ridings. In three way races, the more equally the vote is split between NDP, Liberal and Green voters, the less vote they need to come up the middle. Will there be any surprise Conservative wins because strategic voting did not take place? Will there be that usual last minute rush to the Liberals to stop a Conservative majority? It will be interesting to see if there is any strategic voting impact in this campaign, votefortheenvironment.ca got a million hits during the course of this campaign. Vote swap groups on Facebook have also been set up. Will there be motivation to strategically vote during an election where there is likely to be low turnout and minimal emotion on the major issues? Liberals need strategic voting to keep this election to a Harper minority.

6. Majority or minority

A majority government will mean all of the parties will have four years to rebuild. A minority means an election could take place as early as the first budget or within a couple of years time. A minority minus a few seats could be interesting. Would Bill Casey or Andre Arthur join the party? Would any Liberals cross the floor in the middle of a leadership race to grant a majority to Harper? The stronger the minority the less coalition partners you need to pass legislation. Numbers will be important as they will suggest how long the next parliament will last.

7. Any leadership races on the horizon?

Stephen Harper - says the Conservative party will find a new leader if he loses power

Stephane Dion - says he will stay on as leader even if he loses, but that is not realistic

Jack Layton - more popular than his party but is it time for someone new?

Gilles Duceppe - wants the PQ job but will stay in his role until timing is right

Elizabeth May - will face trouble for her relations with Dion but will take the Greens to their best election performance even without a seat.

If Dion loses, it is widely expected that candidates like Trudeau, McGuinty, Ignatieff, Rae, Findlay and others could start their leadership races on Tuesday night.

8. Economy surprises on election day

Will the markets deliver any news or decline that may impact Canadians as they are about to vote? Given what we have seen over the past few weeks, anything is possible on Monday or Tuesday.

9. Thanksgiving

Last time Canadians had a family dinner was over the Christmas break in December. It seemed to benefit Stephen Harper. Will family conversations lead to more Conservative votes or Liberal ones? Will it encourage the strategic voting? This is the wildcard and there will not be any time to change minds after the holiday.

10. Women, new Canadian, Quebec, urban and young voters

Did the Conservative Party breakthrough to any of these groups required to win a majority? They will be required to pull of victories in the targeted swing ridings. Results Tuesday will demonstrate if Conservative efforts to target these demographics paid off.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl