|
|---|
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Monday, 6 June 2011
On May 25 Bob Rae became interim Leader of the Liberal Party, after a few weeks of speculation that the job would be his. On May 2 the surprising election was held, reducing the Liberals to a mere 18.9% of the votes cast, which sank a few weeks later to below 16%.
 |
| Bobby Bounce? |
Between May 24 and 29 Nanos had a poll, which shows, in the Cat's belief, the first sign of the Bobby Bounce for the Liberals: up from 18.9% nationally to 21.5%, with
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
In an earlier post I challenged EKOS on its framing of the ballot question for the 2011 election. EKOS in essence simply assumed the question as framed by Harper, which was:
Monday, 2 May 2011
Stunning news about voters' intentions in the latest Angus Reid poll!
Thanks to CalgaryGrit for the link to the April 30 Angus Reid poll.
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Perhaps the most significant statistics produced in the whole campaign by a pollster is today's May 1 forecast of voters' intentions published by EKOS.
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
It's the stickiness factor. Jack could shake the Tory tree tomorrow and have up to one in four Tories fall out of the clutches of Harper's new Tories, into his lap.
And that could put him over the top for a minority government.
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
With the failure of the 2008 Coalition Agreement between the Liberal and NDP parties (beaten to death by Tory skillful spinning, that spooked Micheal Ignatieff to recoil from the deal), it seemed for a long time that any realignment of the parties to
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Saturday, 30 April 2011
Where is Quebec leading Canada to on May 2? And why will most Canadians want to undertake that journey with them?
First the coalition, then the Royal Wedding – is the Brit example influencing Canadian voters?
The excitement of the high drama in the UK after their recent election, with negotiations between the three parties ending in a five-year coalition deal between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats, spilled over into Canada for a brief time, with bloggers and commentators wading in with comparisons to our
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
The Cat's forecast for the shares of votes in the three battleground provinces of Atlantic, Ontario and BC for election day, May 2, is this:
- Liberals will beat the Tories in the Atlantic provinces with 42.2% to 39.5%
- In Ontario the Tories will rank behind the Liberals and the NDP on May 2 (the Liberals will have a 6% advantage over the Tories)
- In BC, the fight will be between the NDP (which will be above the Tories) and the Tories; the Liberal vote will collapse to less than 10%
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Friday, 29 April 2011
Harper's Tories have learned from the neocon Republicans that one sure way to win elections is to motivate your own base and then suppress the turnout of the other parties. This can be done in many ways. The key is that it works.
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
The latest Nanos poll (April 28) shows the fortunes of the Tories in two major battleground provinces sinking rapidly.
Look at this chart of the two provinces – note the trends of the Tory support –
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
EKOS – Good reasons for Liberals to vote NDP & vice versa in Ontario!!!
0 comments Posted by 2011 at 12:17You think Harper is going to lose seats in Ontario because the NDP is surging, and the gap between the Tories and Dippers is closing?
Think again!
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
 |
| Harper April 28 2011 - toast |
Just in time for the decision on May 2 whether we need Stephen Harper as our prime minister, robopol Harper has advised Canadians to be careful with their choice on election day because the consequences could be dire:
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE“Get the big decisions wrong and it will take a
Thursday, 28 April 2011
Harper's Smitten Two-Trick Pony:
When this election started, Harper desperately tried to frame the ballot question as a stable majority Conservative government lead by him versus an unstable, illegitimate
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
BR5/2 - You & Your Bragging Rights: From Now to Midnight on May 2
0 comments Posted by 2011 at 13:08This election is a game changer for Canada. What you do between now and midnight on May 2 can help change our country beyond recognition.
This is your chance to help that change along.
Why not give yourself Bragging Rights for being part of that massive change by doing
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
The peekaboo campaign of the robotic Harper and his neocon Conservatives has fallen apart, with just 4 days to go to the May 2 election.
The Cat's forecast:
The Cat is now prepared to go out on a limb (its favourite position) and
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Wednesday, 27 April 2011
The Cat advises you to forgeddabout the pollsters who are still showing Harper's Trojan Horse 'new' Tories with a big whack of votes.
That just ain't so!
Canadians are disgusted with the contempt Harper and his Tories have shown for our democracy and our Parliament.
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Monday, 25 April 2011
If EKOS is right and Harper's Trojan Horse new Tories are sharply reduced to around 130 (meaning bye-bye Harper), with Dipper Jack winning around 100 seats and the Liberals plus NDP around 30 plus more than the Tories, is this: that Dipper Jack hold out for electoral reform as part of his cooperation with any government.
If Jack has the upper hand (which he will have if Harper gets only 130 seats – NDP plus Tories would total 230 according to EKOS, still 26 shy of a majority, so Harper would need the separatist Bloc or the Liberals to also back his first budget), then I hope that Jack holds out for some major electoral reform of the House as the price for his cooperation.
My preference would be proportional representation, but something significant but less as a first step would also work for me for starters (such as the transferable vote similar to what the voters in the UK are going to vote on).
Of course, if Harper bombs with his first budget and Jack is tapped on the shoulder by the Governor General to try to form a government that has the confidence of the majority of our Members of Parliament, then Jack should still insist on electoral reform.
Maybe we are in for some true democratic reform, at last!
Frank Graves has the lastest news: Harper has stalled, the new Tories are now falling, and the centre-progressive forces have beaten back the idea of a Harper majority.
In fact, EKOS has a projection that Harper might only win 131 seats (far less than the 156 he needs for a majority) and be faced with a combined NDP-LPC total which is 38 seats more than Harper gets:
Current numbers would likely produce 131 seats for the Conservatives and about 69 for the Liberals, according to Graves. Together, the NDP andLIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
The most important question pollsters can ask Canadians before May 2
0 comments Posted by 2011 at 05:00The most important question our pollsters can ask us is not which party we might be voting for come May 2, or who is our second choice, or what leader grabs our favour at the moment, or whether it is policies or leaders who stir the cockles of our heart, or whether we are befuddled and cannot make up our minds right now.
It is none of these, but it is perhaps the most significant question that could be asked in the last week of this surprising, tumultuous and interesting 2011 election.
Significant, because the answers to this single question, revealed to voters daily over the coming week, could well in itself cause a change in voting patterns on May 2.
Significant, too, because this election is different: we are on the cusp of the first Canadian election which might result in a prime minister taking office through a vote and exercising dictatorial powers to an
LIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Sunday, 24 April 2011
Great news for our democracry, from Janfromthebruce.blogspot.com – according to the latest polls and her forecast model, the Tories will not get their coveted majority, and the NDP and LPC combined will have just under a majority of seats, and with either Tory or Bloc votes, a sound majority:
What’s more, the distribution of NDP support is good — my model predicts that the NDP will win 81 seats to the Liberal’s 73. In every region of the country, the NDP has made gains over the last few days. Of particular interest, the NDP seems to have become the federalist choice in Quebec, solidly out-polling the other two federal parties and even the Bloc within Quebec. The model predicts 29 seats in Quebec, more than the Bloc at 22, and more than the Liberals and Conservatives combined. The NDPLIKE IT? CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
