Modeling Journey

Although the latest poll (EKOS, September 3 2009) does not fully capture the sea change that took place at Sudbury, it does (according to Threehundredandeight) offer a Liberal minority government:

"This poll would result in the slimmest of Liberal minorities:

Liberals - 119 seats
Conservatives - 115 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 44 seats
New Democrats - 30 seats

With the support of the NDP, and a Bloc that would want to lick its wounds, they would be able to govern."

The internals of the EKOS polls show a distinct advantage for the Liberals in Ontario; as regards the gender battle, more males in Ontario indicated they would support our party, and our long lasting advantage with females was re-established.

The battle of the cities shows a strong showing for Liberals in Montreal and Toronto, with the Tories holding an advantage in BC.

For the NDP, the poll is good news: their support is holding strong at over 16%.

The party that is bleeding is the Tory party. Harper's chickens are finally coming home to roost, and their droppings are accumulating on the shoulders of Tory MPs at an impressive rate.

Let's look forward to a new government in a matter of months, and a parliament in which the majority of parties have both the willingness and the power to work together to help Canadians, and move the country forward. A parliament in which civility might once again rear its head, and make Canadians proud of their MPs.