The latest polls are interesting, and may or may not show a trend away from the Harper minority government towards one or more of the three opposition parties. But what is clear, is that – barring unforeseen events – no one party will win a majority of seats after the coming election.
So we can argue a lot about how many seats the Tories will retain (in Quebec, BC, Ontario); how many the NDP might retain or win (such as in BC); or how many the LPC might wrest away from the other parties.
And we can argue about whether the CPC or LPC will gain the most seats, albeit not enough to constitute a majority.
But all these arguments are pointless, because they disregard what happened in Sudbury. When the Liberal Party crossed the Rubicon and said no more propping up of Harper's Tories, the whole dynamics of Canadian politics were changed for the next few years, at least, if not longer.
That decision will last for a long time.
The Liberals will not prop up Harper or his Tory party. Period.
So whether the Tories or the LPC gain more seats than the other, does not matter. The changed contours of our politics now means that there will be no stability should the Tories gain another minority government until they are replaced by a Liberal government.
So the number of seats is not relevant.
What is more relevant right now are the permutations and actions to be taken to result in a Liberal minority government.
That's the essence of what happened this past week.
And that is why the Tories are panicking.
They understand that they have lost the ability to govern Canada, and that this ability has now passed to the Liberals, supported by the other opposition parties (whether through a coalition, an arrangement, or on a case by case or vote by vote basis does not really matter, except to Harper who desperately needs to run against a formal or de facto coalition as his chosen enemy in this election).
Keep your eye on the prize, folks: the government, not the number of seats.
