Modeling Journey

According to statements and reports, both the NDP and Bloc have said that they are prepared to support the Tory government on a 'case by case' basis:

"A source has told The Canadian Press that NDP Leader Jack Layton is set to announce he will support the government on a case-by-case basis if the Tories back New Democrats' private member bills on issues ranging from EI benefits to regulating credit-card rates.

Layton will hold a news conference on Thursday to speak about his party's position.
Earlier, Harper sounded downbeat on the possibility of working with the NDP.

"I have no indication of that from Mr. Layton," Harper said when asked if he thought the NDP could work with the government.

The prime minister said Layton's goal was to have a coalition government between the Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP.

That aside, Harper said he was willing to work with any party that has "ideas to help the economy."

In a news conference Wednesday afternoon, Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe said he would take each issue in Parliament one by one, but that he was willing to topple the government if necessary.

"Our position was never to ask whether or not we want elections," Duceppe said. "We vote on the value of a proposal. If it's good for Quebec, we vote for it.""

This case by case response is good for a few sound bytes, but is really nonsensical. Sooner or later both the Bloc and the NDP will have to fish or cut bait when it comes to their continued support of Harper's Tories.

My guess is that they will decide to fish sooner than anyone thinks they will.

The acid test will be the series of confidence votes that are looming. Some can be precipitated by the Tory minority government, who might introduce a second budget on September 14 designed to flush out the three opposition parties, and to provide the Tories with an issue to fight the election on:

""It wasn't any grand scheme that we hatched in March," said a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "If they vote against [the home renovation credit], they vote against it. They can pretend it means whatever they want, but it means the (credit) would be defeated."

A spokesman for the Canada Revenue Agency also confirmed the credit will die if the second budget bill isn't passed, meaning Canadians won't be able to claim the credit on their tax returns for 2009."

The NDP might seek shelter by buying into the Tory framing of this issue, and vote for the budget to avoid the homeowners' losing their tax credits this year. The Bloc might do the same.

However, the Liberal response can be simple: undertake to ensure that homeowners entitled to the tax credit can claim it, by the new government (most likely to be a Liberal minority one), tabling legislation to make it so (even if retroactively). If properly managed by the Liberals this should defuse the issue, even though the Tories will proclaim to the heavens that such a course is impossible or highly inconvenient or more costly. If the Liberals do not prepare for this particular framing battle, they could, of course, screw it up and lose the next election over it. Being prepared is not just a scout motto…

Even if the second budget passes this time, the Bloc and NDP will face further confidence votes, brought about by the government tabling legislation which ensures this, or the Liberals introducing votes of no confidence when entitled to do so.
And then the test will be whether the Bloc and NDP will run the risk of angering their supporters by propping up the Harper government even when that government is introducing matters which go against the grain.

After all, how long can the Tories govern without upsetting these two parties?
And if Jack Layton sides with the Tories, then voters are going to ask at what price? Just how many concessions will he make on principles in return for thirty shekels?

The NDP in particular runs the greater risk, in that it has consistently said that it does not have confidence in the Tory government because it does not trust Harper or his party any more. How on earth can it then continue to prop up the same people by accepting promises from them with respect to future actions?

There is no way that Harper can allow his government to be run by (in his mind) the socialists and the separatists. He might be able to put enough goodies on the table once, or twice, but within a very short while he will find that the price demanded of his government is just too high, and he will try short-changing either or both of these parties.

And then the election will come, and he will lose power.