Modeling Journey

Tory supporters (including those in the media) are agog with the latest very brief report from Reuters, which they maintain supports the view that Ignatieff has already decided to vote for the Harper budget next week.

To reach this conclusion, Tories are tying themselves into the most amazing pretzel-like contortions.

This is part of the article by Reuters:

“Canada needs an election over next week's budget "like a hole in the head," Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Wednesday, the latest sign that he will keep the minority Conservative government in power.

If the opposition Liberals vote against next Tuesday's budget, the government will almost certainly be defeated. That could trigger an election at the end of February or the start of March.

"We need an election in February like a hole in the head. It is not the preferred choice of Canadians. We're in a recession (and) Canadians all know that an election is expensive," Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff told a televised news conference in Montreal.

Ignatieff told Reuters on Tuesday that he was quite prepared to vote against the budget if he felt it could not tackle the growing effects of the financial crisis. He also said he was trying to calm political tempers.”

It is very clear that the Tories are petrified by the prospect of their budget being voted down, and the coalition taking over.

Read the above extract carefully.

Ignatieff says Canadians do not want an election in February, so soon after the last one. I guess everyone agrees with that, except the Tories, who claim that the only fair thing to do if their budget is voted down, is to have another election.

Ignatieff then also says that he is prepared to vote against the budget if it is inadequate, given the economic stress we now find ourselves in.

So, where does it say that Ignatieff will vote for Harper’s budget just because Canadians do not want another election?

Nowhere.

But consider this: if the Harper budget is inadequate (as it most probably will be), what happens if the three opposition parties vote against it, as they should?
Well, the government is defeated. Harper then visits the Governor General. He probably asks for the House to be ended and an election to be held. The GG will consider that an election was held a short few months ago. She will consider established parliamentary convention, which requires her to consult with the leader of the next largest party in the House, to see if he (Ignatieff) can put together a government. Ignatieff will say that he can, and point to the Accord and the agreement with the NDP. The GG will then give him the chance to form a government which enjoys the confidence of the House.

So, no election.

But also, no requirement for the Liberals not to vote against an inadequate budget presented by an untrustworthy prime minister in whom they have no confidence.

Tory pretzels; painful things.