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Tuesday, 19 August 2008
Obama should pick Hillary...will likely pick Biden as VP
Update: Michael Moore is pushing for Caroline Kennedy. Not a bad choice in my opinion. Kennedy is currently heading up Obama's VP search committee. Would she recommend herself?
Speculation is that Obama will name his VP this week, possibily as early as today and certainley prior to the convention in Denver at the end of the month. As we get close to a decision, I personally think it would be a huge mistake if Obama selects anyone other than Hillary Clinton. Here is a look at some of the top contenders at this stage of the campaign.
Hillary Clinton:
Pro - Has been tested on the campaign trail, is aware of the issues, brings Bill Clinton and his campaign machine fully on side, likely ensures her 18 million voters support Obama, provides instant unity and excitement at the convention and perhaps offers some experience to counter some of the weaknesses associated with Obama. Also has the ability to enhance Obama's chances in states like PA, FL, OH, MI and other swing states where she was successful in the primaries. Also brings Latino, female and older voters into the mix for Obama, demographics that Obama seems to be having trouble with. Avoids a letdown scenerio where whoever the VP choice is becomes overshadowed by the decision not to go with Hillary.
Con - Bill Clinton hanging around. Perhaps she will overshadow Obama. Questionable intentions regarding 2012. Nasty primary may affect personal chemistry between the two politicians. Comes with some baggage and hurts his message of change.
Joe Biden:
Pro - Vast experience on foreign affairs and defense matters where Obama is seen as inexperienced.
Con - Represents a state that only has 3 electoral college votes and is considered safely in the blue column. Perhaps lacks a profile compared to Al Gore, Clinton, Richardson, Edwards etc. who also ran in the Democratic primaries. Hurts Obama's message of change because of the amount of time he has been in Washington.
Evan Bayh
Pro - Popular democratic Senator in Republican Indiana. Could carry the state for Obama potentially. Former Hillary supporter that could demonstrate Democratic unity going forward. Has strong experience in foreign affiars and the economy. Adds to the generation divide because of his youth.
Con - Lacks charisma and isn't widely known nationally.
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark
Pro - Military experience would shore up Obama on national security. Hillary supporter that could promote unity. Although he has served in cabinet, he has never held elected office perhaps emphasizing Obama's message of change.
Con - Lacks campaign experience. No glaring liabilities though.
Chuck Hagel
Pro - Republican who opposes the war. Could emphasize Obama's message of bipartisanship. Good foreign affairs credentials.
Con - How will this go over with Democrats, particuilarily the moveon.org wing of the party?
Tim Kaine
Pro - Might put Virginia in play - a state Obama is targeting hard.
Con - Lacks experience, national profile and major accomplishments.
Bill Richardson
Pro - Could help with Hispanics, New Mexico and offers a wide range of experience including talking to dictators. Endorsed Obama late in the race despite ties to the Clintons.
Con - Could the "Judas" comment and the way his endorsement went down hurt party unity?
John Kerry
Pro - Ran a Presidential campaign in 2004 but lost. Has performed well as a surrogate. Experience with nasty Republican attacks. Could help Obama with experience and his three purple hearts and military experience.
Con - Lost for a reason. Lacks charisma and again could hurt message of change.
Wild Card Choices:
Al Gore - Has a huge following, environmental credibility and offers huge national profile. On the flip side Obama doesn't need further youth or Liberal support. Al Gore might turn off indepedent voters. Might not be interested in the role at this point in his career. Oscar and Nobel Peace Prize winner. Speaking on the last night of the convention.
Jim Webb - A good choice from Virgina. Lacks experience. Took himself out of the race.
Ted Strickland - Could put Ohio in play. Lacks national profile.
Kathleen Sibelus - Could put Kansas and the midwest in play and has a strong bi-partisan record. Is a female, but would her being named offend Hillary supporters? Lacks national profile.
Edward Rendell - Governor of PA. Could bring the crucial swing state in play. Supported Hillary. Does he have national profile though?
Sam Nunn - Good experience and is from Georgia, another state Obama is targeting that has been Republican in the past. Could help in the South and with independents. Is he yesterday's man though?
Chris Dodd - Good campaigner and has strong economic experience. Lacks profile and has been part of the Washington establishment for a long time.
John Edwards - Would have been a top choice a few months ago. Recent revelations in the tabloids though have forced him to fight to save his political career and have likely disqualified him for both the VP slot and a cabinet post.
Colin Powell - Ultimate military experience and well respected. Not clear if he will endorse Obama. Has baggage regarding Iraq. Republican would promote bi-partisanship but may not go over well with the Liberal wing of the Democratic Party.
Michael Bloomberg - Popular mayor in New York, Republican in name only and strong credentials on the economy. Could be a good VP pick for either side but seems to be leaning towards endorsing Obama.
Michael Bloomberg - Popular mayor in New York, Republican in name only and strong credentials on the economy. Could be a good VP pick for either side but seems to be leaning towards endorsing Obama.
Who Should Obama pick?
I think Obama could avoid a major mistake by selecting Hillary Clinton. I think on balance she brings the most to the ticket, promotes unity, has experience, offers fundraising and campaigning skills and assists Obama with Demographics and regions where he needs assistance. She has been tested in the media, campaign trail and fending off attacks. Fairly new Senator and Bill Clinton ultimately could prove to be very valuable both in November and in Obama's first term. If someone else is selected, Obama risks a major letdown, controversy and could alienate some of Hillary's supporters required in this tight race to win.
Who will Obama pick?
My money is on Joe Biden. His trip up to Georgia and recent campaigning could be a good indication he is the favourite inside the Obama camp. Offers good foreign affairs experience that can complement Obama's weaknesses and lack of experience. Had the best plan for withdrawl of Iraq in a responsible fashion. Has great relations with world leaders and the Senate. Although he sometimes speaks off the cuff, he offers a low enough profile to avoid overshadowing Obama on the ticket while at the same time is recognized nationally due to his time in the Senate. Likely a safer choice than other names mentioned.
Realistic Wild Cards?
Hillary Clinton if Obama gets cold feet naming someone else. Al Gore or John Kerry. Evan Bayh was considered the top choice by many pundits not long ago. Richardson has done well representing Obama in the media and on the campaign trail. Wesley Clark might be tempting given his experience in Kosovo and the current crisis in Georgia. Also don't be surprised if the pick is from Virgina. Colin Powell??????
Final Prediction: Obama picks Joe Biden this week despite pressure from Hillary Clinton supporters to go with the "Dream Ticket".
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
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