Obama needs Clinton or Gore as VP
Update: Obama has confirmed that his decision has been made in terms of who he will ask to be VP. He did not reveal his choice however. Prior to Saturday (most likely tomorrow) we should know exactly who that choice is. Obama met with Kaine earlier today and the leading three candidates still seem to be possible. As for Hillary, it is looking less likely, but who knows...maybe this is all a smokescreen for a blockbuster surprise where the "dream" ticket would become a reality.
-Darryl
The more I think about it, the more I cannot understand why Obama would name anyone besides Hillary as VP. Think of the situation right now:
-Polls are declining for Obama in key swing states, among blue collar voters, among older voters, among female voters and among Latino voters. His campaign has lost momentum and excitement. McCain has been effective in bringing Obama down to earth and portraying him as a celebrity without substance. He needs something to get off the defense and place a shot of excitement into his campaign.
-At the upcoming Democratic convention almost half of the delegates were initially supporters of Hillary Clinton.
-Obama is polling poorly on the economy and many Democrats and Americans associate the good economic times with Bill Clinton.
-The situation in Russia, Pakistan and Iran is quickly showing that national security experience is going to be crucial going forward in this campaign. No matter who Obama selects on his ticket, it will be obvious that national security and foreign policy will be major requirements to shore up Obama's lack of foreign credentials. The Clintons have a huge network of foreign contacts.
-Someone like Kaine is being considered because he might carry a swing state like Virginia. Would it not go with Hillary Clinton who has a 50 state organization from her primary campaign as well as her husband's presidency.
-Who can raise more money than the Clintons among the front runners currently being considered?
-Polls show that barley a majority of Clinton supporters will vote for Obama. Over 20% will vote for McCain. If uniting the Democratic movement is part of Obama's goal, how would selecting Biden address this situation? Clinton as VP could quickly unite the party and bring a much higher percentage of her voters into the Obama camp. No choice would unite the party more than Hillary who could instantly turn the Democratic convention into a unity love fest.
-If Hillary is snubbed, will her 2012 campaign kick off early?
-Is Obama prepared to spend weeks dealing with the controversy of selecting someone other than Clinton, become forced to explain why to the media and Hillary supporters and than attempt to unite a party full of disenfranchised democrats? Does he want to get so drastically off message with only 10 weeks to go with poor poll numbers despite the unpopularity of Bush?
-Who is a stronger campaigner on the VP short list than Bill and Hillary Clinton?
-Who has been more tested in the media and against Republican attacks than the Clintons?
-After the longest primary in history, almost a billion raised and spent, an organization in every state, similar views on the main issues and 18 million votes case; has Hillary not earned the number two spot? JFK selected his rival. Others have selected his rival. If Obama can work across the isle, show there is no such thing as a blue or red state, unite the country and bring out new voters; would it not be a appropriate to back that message up by showing he can work with Clinton despite a competitive nomination race?
-As potentially the first female president, does Hillary not help Obama's message of change despite her time in Washington as a Senator and First Lady? Initially Hillary was largely seen as Bill's husband. After her campaign, I think she has earned a legacy of her own and has proven to be her own person. Her time in the senate is far less than Obama's rival. I do not think Hillary represents status quo in Washington.
-Is Bill Clinton a liability? Hard to argue that when he obviously has ability to breakthrough in areas where Obama is trailing McCain. He will be hated by the far right, but how many of those voters does Obama expect to realistically get?
-Hillary and Bill are fighters. Who better to go negative on McCain than Hillary who proved to be a huge attack dog towards the end of her campaign. Her arguments were picked up and expanded by McCain. By joining the ticket, Hillary would reduce the damage of those previous attacks.
-Why would Hillary do it? She has already said she wants the job. She needs to pay off her debts. She is clearly the number two in the Democratic Party right now. The VP role would allow her to focus on health care or other issues she cares about from the executive branch.
-What would be a better way to overshadow the Republican convention than to name Hillary VP and steal the headlines for the next couple of weeks. Poll after poll shows that far and away Democrats prefer Obama to select Hillary. I think a major opportunity would be lost going with a lesser known candidate. With the exception of Al Gore, I cannot think of any name in the top tier that would be anything more than a total letdown if selected.
-If Obama really doesn't want Hillary (and many in his campaign do not), than at the very least he needs someone with the profile, organization, fundraising ability and experience. Al Gore could deliver that profile. Having said that, I think Obama should name Hillary as VP and then also his cabinet in advance. Can you imagine if he named Clinton is VP and then defined roles for Biden, Richardson, Gore, Powell, and others in a potential cabinet. The team around Obama would shore up his inexperience and minimize the risk that is holding many back from voting for an unknown quantity in the face of McCain's experience and track record.
-Conventional wisdom says that Biden is going to be the VP. The more I think about it, the more I am going to throw my money on a surprise with Hillary Clinton. Selecting someone else really doesn't make much sense and quite possibly could cost him the White House in 10 weeks.
I will be waiting for that text...
Darryl
