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Wednesday 20 August 2008
Conventions could be a disaster for both Obama and McCain
Starting this Monday, the real election kicks off in the US as both parties are due to hold their conventions. While everything will be tightly scripted with both parties trying to demonstrate unity and enthusiasm; there is potential on both sides to host a disaster based on who they choose as their running mates.
Rumors are that this Saturday, Obama will finally send out his text message announcing his choice for VP. He will then appear with that candidate in Springfield, IL at an event two days before the Democratic convention. In contrast, August 29 is rumored to be the day that McCain will select his running mate. Both candidates have the potential to divide their party with the choices they might make.
In the case of the Democrats, a long primary has highlighted the division between former Clinton supporters and Obama supporters within the Democratic Party. If Obama picks a running mate other than Hillary Clinton, many people are likely to be disappointed with the media doing everything they can to highlight division at the convention among Hillary's supporters. With polls so tight (yesterday's actually showing for the first time a McCain victory) some have speculated that Hillary should be the only choice Obama should be considering for the sake of unity within the party and also to improve the chances that most of Hillary's 18 million supporters will show up and vote for Obama. If he picks Hillary Clinton, issues associated with unity, appeal to Latino, Catholic, Blue Collar and women demographics combined with Hillary's 50 state organization could drastically improve his chances to win the White House. Polls taken siting Hillary as a running mate have consistently shown a bump in Obama's numbers. Hillary and Bill Clinton also offer the chance to shore up Obama's inexperience, an argument that has worked well against him in both the Democratic primaries and in McCain's current campaign message. If Obama selects someone other than Hillary on Saturday, he could face weeks of justifying his pick over Hillary in the media and within his own party throwing off his campaign message. With Hillary's name in nomination, one has to wonder if in the event she is not selected as Obama's VP, will her supporters show up in Denver disenfranchised and cause problems at least in terms of the optics of unity. If Obama picks someone other than Hillary, that person is going to be constantly compared to Clinton and if polls take a dive, people are going to question why he didn't put his ego aside and go with the "dream ticket". All indications are Joe Biden is most likely to be Obama's choice. If that happens (or worse if someone like Kathleen Sebelius is selected), this convention risks division and as a result could prove to be a failure or disaster. On the flip side, picking Hillary could prove to be a huge success for Obama. New interest and enthusiasm could likely be added to his campaign. Optics would show a united party. The event would close with Al Gore and Obama speaking in front of 70,000 in Denver. Is picking someone else worth the risk? Ralph Nader is predicting Hillary Clinton will be Obama's surprise choice and if that happens expect Democrats to truly get fired up. On the flip side, if he goes with someone like Tim Kaine, it is hard to see how such an unknown name would draw any kind of excitement or approval from grassroots supporters.
In the case of Republicans, John McCain already is going to have a problem with unity when he shows up in Minnesota. Ron Paul is holding his "rally for the Republic" and could draw attention away from McCain should a large and loud group of enthusiastic young people show up to the event. Paul has a loyal and enthusiastic following. The optics of his rival convention could provide a stark contrast to the official Republican convention where there is potential that McCain's VP pick could divide the party and fuel further unrest with core Conservative voters. Rumor has it that McCain's team is floating key pro-choice advocates Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman as potential VP picks. Both would slap the Evangelical movement in the face and create a revolt from core Conservatives already not fully satisfied with McCain's track record and candidacy. Some pundits argue, that leaking Lieberman or Ridge is a way to pave the way for Mitt Romney. While Romney was once pro-choice, he is now pro-life. Romney is crucial for McCain on the economy, but his own prospects have been a source of concern among social Conservatives (see Huckabee's comments). Perhaps leaking Lieberman and Ridge is a good way to make Romney's candidacy more accepted by the Evangelical base. Now is not the time for McCain to play his maverick side. He needs a safe Conservative pick or he could face a major split in his movement and kill all the momentum he has gained in recent weeks. With Obama speaking in front of 70,000 people in a swing state, optics will be poor for McCain unless he can demonstrate some enthusiasm and unity among his own supporters. Two bad scenarios for McCain would be a selecting a pro-choice running mate or in the unlikely event that Ron Paul draws a larger and more enthusiastic crowd in Minnesota.
With such a short time before the election, mistakes could have a huge impact on the outcome. Within days we will see the VP picks of both candidates. Those picks are going to set the stage for the conventions. The outcomes of the conventions will determine who has momentum in the race for president. There isn't much time to reverse momentum or any potential errors as people pay more attention following the summer and voters begin to make up their minds for good. If either side is thinking of taking a big risk (McCain selecting a pro-choice candidate/Obama picking someone other than Hillary) they should think twice.
This will be a great week for anyone following the US election closely. Does anyone out there have any opinions on who McCain or Obama should pick as their running mate?
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
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